The scenario is “uncertain and risky”, but the Italian economy continues to show good shape. Growth this year will come in at 1%, down from 3.7% in 2022, but still better than previously forecast. The debt takes a path of progressive decline, as does the deficit, from which will arrive a ‘little treasury’ of 3 billion which the government is preparing to use immediately to cut the tax wedge on medium-low incomes. It is the route traced by the first economic and financial document of the Meloni government, which sets the path of public finances in the next three years: along the lines of “stability, credibility and growth”, assures the premier. But it also sends a new signal on the Pnrr front, on which the game to unlock the third installment is still open in Brussels: the Plan alone is not enough and we need to work on a wider horizon. The Def 2023 approved by the council of ministers confirms the “prudent and realistic” approach with which the government has already built the budget law and the Dpb, with the aim of “showing seriousness and reliability” to the markets and to the EU. The starting point is an economic-financial context in which the negative effects deriving from the pandemic and from high energy prices have diminished, but the uncertainty linked not only to the war, to the rise in interest rates and to the emergence of the crises of the banks. But despite this, the Italian economy continues to show “a considerable amount of resilience and vitality”, assures the Ministry of Economy and Finance. The fact that the most recent indicators “show that in the first months of 2023 the country’s economy has started to grow again” also gives confidence.
Hence the decision to set the GDP bar for this year at +1%, raising the forecast of 0.6% made in November in the Nadef by 4 decimals. Caution is instead evident in the estimates for the following years: growth for 2024 is revised downwards to +1.5% (from +1.9% of the Nadef), while for the following years no boost is expected on GDP , with the trend and planning estimates aligned at 1.3 and 1.1%. With the aim of guaranteeing the sustainability of public finances, the Def then envisages a gradual reduction of the deficit and debt (which will gradually drop from 144.4% this year to 140.4% in 2026). A downward trend is also expected for the tax burden, which should go from 43.3% in 2023 to 42.7% by 2026. “The prudence of this document is a responsible ambition”, underlines Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti , which brought the Def to CDM on the eve of his trip to Washington for the week of the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings.
“The reforms launched intend to rekindle confidence in the future – continues Giorgetti – by protecting the birth rate and families also through the tax reform which will favor large households”. And the decision to allocate the additional resources derived from the deficit to cut the tax wedge goes precisely in the direction of giving a signal to workers: the deficit estimate for this year is a programmatic 4.5%, compared with a 4.35% trend, in fact frees up over 3 billion that the government will use, with a measure to be implemented soon, to cut social security contributions paid by employees with medium-low incomes. The Def also draws a line on the hot topic of the Pnrr, on which there remains the unknown factor of a boost that risks already being exhausted on the GDP. “To make our country more dynamic, innovative and inclusive, the Pnrr is not enough”, underlines the Treasury which, while reassuring us about the work in progress to obtain the third installment of 19 billion, opens up new scenarios: we must also invest to “strengthen the national production capacity and work over a longer time horizon” than that of the Plan, indicates the Treasury, to avoid new inflationary flare-ups.
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