Rome, 15 April 2024 – It would have been a flop launch of missiles and drones from Iran towards Israel. According to US officials cited by the Wall Street Journal, between Saturday night and Sunday about half of Tehran’s ballistic missiles would not have reached their target. Between failed launches and rockets fell before reaching Israel, the actual impact of the rain of over 300 bullets would have been quite limited. Tehran has more than 170 explosive-laden drones, around 120 ballistic missiles and around 30 cruise missiles. Those who were actually arriving at their destination were almost all intercepted.
Iranian drones, generic photo
The array of Israel’s allies was impressive and contributed to supporting the now well-known Tel Aviv shield and almost completely foiling the Iranian attack. US forces alone have destroyed more than 80 drones and six ballistic missiles launched from Tehran and Yemen, US Central Command (Centcom) said today.
The attack on the Russian model
According to analysts at the American think tank Isw (The Institute for the study of war) the Iranian attack against Israel was modeled on those that the Russians repeatedly use against Ukraine to great effect.
Damage to Israel was more limited than expected, perhaps because the Iranians underestimated the country’s enormous defense capabilities compared to Kiev. According to the ISW, Tehran will learn the lesson and work to improve its ability to penetrate Israeli defenses, as the Russians did.
How the attack developed
I Iranian drones were launched long before ballistic missiles, the plan was probably to get them into Israel’s air defense window at about the same time as the cruise missiles. A strategy used several times by the Russians in attacks on Ukraine. The aim is to ensure that i cruise missiles and slower drones distract and overcome air defenses to allow ballistic missiles, which are much more difficult to shoot down, to reach their targets.
Cruise missiles and drones were intended to serve as ‘deceptions’. The Iranians – comments the ISW – most likely expected that few, if any, would reach the target. Tehran was confident that in this way it would give ballistic missiles a better chance of hitting the target. In reality, of the approximately 120 launched by the Iranians, few penetrated the defenses of Tel Aviv, hitting near the military bases.
“Ukrainian air defenses averaged interception rates of only about 46 percent of Russian ballistic missiles during recent large attacks. The Iranians probably expected that Israeli rates would be higher than Ukrainian ones but no higher than 90 percent. % against such a large ballistic salvo: the Russians have never launched so many large ballistic missiles in a single attack against Ukraine,” we read on the think tank’s website.
Iran certainly had the analyzes on the Russian attacks in Ukraine at its disposal. Kiev It often intercepts more than 75% of Russian cruise missiles and drones, but most of them are shot down within the air defense umbrella, it also deals with ballistic missile defense. The Iranians therefore expected that at least some of their drones and cruise missiles would interfere with Israel’s attempt to stop incoming ballistic missiles.
Apparently this was not the case. And Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky intervenes today to underline how “Modern air defense systems are capable of protecting human lives”. An indirect message to urge his allies to provide the latest updates to Kiev. Lower the effectiveness rate of ballistics , whether Russian or Iranian, is crucial for every country that is attacked.
Also because, as the ISW underlines, it is enough to penetrate the air defenses “even with a small number of large ballistic missiles” to create “serious security problems for Israel.”