Omicron and its highly contagious sub-variants capable of puncturing vaccines as well as responsible for the boom in reinfections. And then the general drop in vaccination protection that prompted the Ministry of Health to immediately suggest a fourth dose for over 80s and frailties to avoid serious forms of Covid. In view of the autumn, the signs to give life to a new universal campaign with a new vaccine adapted to Omicron are all there. So much so that the American immunologist Fauci advisor to the White House has already said he believes a new booster dose for everyone in the fall is very likely. And also in Italy there are the first favorable voices.
US forecasts: 100 million cases and vaccine for everyone
The first to draw a possible scenario in view of the autumn were the Americans: the overseas experts foresee an autumn-winter wave of 100 million Covid cases due to the Omicron sub-variants. The new wave, linked to the rapid evolution of the virus in the Omicron family with its sub-variants that in South Africa have already triggered a fifth wave, would begin this summer in the South of the USA and then begin to expand in the fall in the rest of the country risking to bring with it. itself, given the high number of infections expected, also a long queue of deaths. For this the immunologist Anthony Fauci preaches caution because “we do not know for sure what will happen” and in recent days after a meeting with the Italian Minister of Health Roberto Speranza he said he thought a second (or fourth dose) booster would likely be recommended in the United States for everyone between September and October.
With Omicron subvariants, infections and reinfections boom
What is worrying are the new entries of the Omicron family, which in addition to being very contagious have shown an ability to escape vaccines: in particular the new sub-variants – the so-called Omicron 4 e 5 – which in South Africa have already become prevalent and have caused a fifth wave and are now starting to appear in other countries, including Italy. In fact, Omicron 4 was isolated in recent days by the microbiology laboratory of Sant’Orsola di Bologna and there are already several cases of Omicron 5 too: the Perugia laboratory has found three. Given what has already happened in South Africa, it is likely that the new sub-variants will soon replace the current ones. Among other things, the sub-variants of Omicron would also be responsible for new reinfections that have been growing steadily for months. According to data from the Higher Institute of Health, the rate of reinfection in the last week has risen to 5% and there are 400 thousand total cases of new infections that were counted among the healed from 24 August 2021 to 4 May.
With the “American” scenario 20 million infections in Italy
Omicron and especially its sub-variants do not seem to cause a more severe disease than Covid. Indeed, the symptoms of Omicron 4 and 5, from what has been seen in the countries where they are already widespread, vary a little from those of the original Omicron version: fewer coughs, but more runny nose; less fever, but more exhaustion. And then dizziness, pain in the stomach and abdomen, ear ache. However, these symptoms do not exclude the risk of pneumonia, which remains high among the unvaccinated population and also among the elderly and frail. If we take for granted the numbers of the American scenario, that is, 100 million infected in autumn and winter out of 300 million Americans in Italy, given due proportions, we could count up to 20 million Italians infected. Very large numbers that portend a certain pressure also on hospitals and the risk of a high number of deaths. Hence the possibility of protecting ourselves with a new universal vaccination campaign.
Pregliasco: protection falls, it must be reinforced with new vaccines
One more reason to get vaccinated also derives from the fact that current vaccines are gradually losing the ability to protect us: first of all from infection with the new sub-variants that seem to pierce this shield. To underline it among others is the virologist Fabrizio Pregliasco, lecturer at the State University of Milan. For Pregliasco, what “worries” in this phase of the epidemic with the growing circulation of super-transmissible and immunoevasive Omicron sub-variants is “the possibility of reinfection even if cured or covered by the vaccine“. The protection conferred by the injection-shield, «if it drops against the contagion, it is still maintained as regards the heavier effects of the disease. But vaccination – underlines Pregliasco – will be periodically reinforced with new updated products “, and” instantly with the current ones for the most fragile subjects to whom a fourth dose was immediately suggested “.