Omicron, the new variants coming for the winter. “Cerberus and Chiron escape antibodies”

In Italy, the RT is at 1.3: it is the index that measures the transmission speed of the coronavirus and when it is above 1 it means that the contagion is running. The good news is that in recent days there has been a slowdown in the race in both cases and hospitalizations. The problems, if anything, are on the horizon, always bearing in mind that we have learned to live with Covid and that being prudent does not mean being scared.

Fourth dose and flu vaccine: can they be done together? What are the (mild) side effects?

The new sub-variant

In the United States the diffusion of the defined Omicron sub-variant is growing a lot BQ.1. It represents 10 percent of the registered cases and above all it grows more than the other sub-variants. Along with a sister sub-variant, the BQ.1.1 (with a questionable fashion similar to that of meteorology, social networks have given it a nickname, Cerberus) presents elements of concern. American expert Anthony Fauci explained to CBS News: “When you get variations of the genre, you look at what the rate of increase is and this has a rather problematic doubling time.”

IN EUROPE AND ITALY

Also in Germany and the United Kingdom the BQ.1.1 the rapidity of diffusion has been detected and confirmed. In Italy, the latest report from the Higher Institute of Health for now indicates another sub-variant, Ba.5, as dominant, at 93 per cent. For this reason Antonio Maruotti, full professor of statistics at Lumsa, observes: «We are at the peak of Covid cases, the curve is slowing down dramatically this week. Next week we will be on the same numbers, but it is clear that the mini-wave is running out with manageable numbers on all indicators ».

FEATURES

The unknown is what will happen when and if BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 spread. Maruotti underlines: «We have to get used to the mini waves». Fortunately, according to American studies, vaccines, especially those calibrated on Omicron 5, protect us from serious disease: “This is a BA.5 sub-lineage, so there will almost certainly be cross-protection that you can enhance.” If anything, there is another knot: the monoclonal antibodies used to date may not work.

THE OTHER SUBVARIANT

There is another sub-variant to keep an eye on: it’s called BA.2.75.2 (for pop lovers it has been nicknamed Chiron and derives from another sub-variant informally called Centaurus). According to a study by a group of scientists from the Swedish Karolinska Institutet and other scientific institutions (the Federal Polytechnic Eth of Zurich, the Imperial College of London) it has a wide capacity to escape from neutralizing antibodies. Therefore, even in this case there is a risk that existing monoclonals may have problems. This sub-variant, however, belongs to the Omicron 2 group (simplifying) and until today 5 has always been shown to prevail in terms of diffusion. The 2, however, in the latest report of the Higher Institute of Health records a slight increase.

In summary: the current wave is stopping and has been sustainable, others will soon arrive and it is better to increase the defenses with the fourth dose (especially for the elderly and more fragile subjects). The sub-variants on the horizon have an important transmission rate, they could reduce the effectiveness of monoclonal antibodies, but nothing tells us yet that they will cause a more serious disease.