Infection situation before Christmas: Pandemic comparison shows the true extent of the current Corona situation
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Shortly before Christmas, more people are becoming ill with Covid-19 again. As a result, corona-related hospital admissions, intensive care treatments and deaths are also increasing. But how should the current figures be classified? A comparison.
The Corona numbers have been rising seasonally for several weeks. But how should the current Corona situation be assessed compared to the pandemic times of previous years? The most important Corona numbers at a glance:
1. Incidence
According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the current 7-day incidence is 31.2 Covid-19 cases per week and 100,000 inhabitants (as of December 22, 2023). This means it is around 21 percent lower than the previous week (39.2).
A look at the graphic shows that it is significantly below the level of previous years. However, a positive PCR test is necessary to be included in the statistics. Since fewer and fewer people are being officially tested, the number of unreported cases is likely to be much higher. Experts warn that the current reporting figures can no longer be compared with historical data.
The comparison of the hospitalization incidence, corona intensive care patients and corona-related deaths and thus the following graphics is more meaningful.
2. Hospitalization incidence
The number of people who need to be treated in a hospital because of a corona infection has recently risen continuously since July. In the current reporting week (week 50), the incidence of hospitalization has now fallen slightly compared to the previous week. It is currently at 8.8 Covid-19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (As of December 22, 2023). Compared to the previous week (9.4), it fell by six percent. According to the RKI, however, there could still be late reports.
The current hospitalization incidence is therefore below the values of previous years, although in some cases only slightly. The incidence was 15.4 (2020), 8.9 (2021) and 16.4 (2022).
3. Corona patients in the intensive care unit
Have to at the moment 1254 corona infected people treated in an intensive care unit of which 1237 are adults and 17 children (as of December 22, 2023). Compared to the previous week (1214), this is an increase of three percent. The number has been rising continuously since the beginning of August.
The comparison with previous years shows: The current number of intensive care patients is at the same level as last year (1222). In previous years, however, the situation was much more tense: in 2021, around 4,438 and in 2020 even 5,202 corona patients required intensive care.
4. Corona-related deaths
The number of corona-related deaths also continues to rise. In the last week 492 deaths related to Covid-19 reported (as of December 22, 2023). That is nine percent more than the previous week (449).
In recent years, however, the number of corona-related deaths has been significantly higher. According to the RKI, 830 (2022), 2,644 (2021) and 4,531 (2020) deaths were reported in the week from December 16th to 12th.
Conclusion: Especially in terms of deaths, but also in Covid-19 intensive care patients, we are below the level of the pandemic years. Nevertheless, the experts appeal, especially to the older population, to get vaccinated and thus protect themselves from a serious and possibly fatal course. According to the RKI, 96 percent of those who have died are currently 60 years old and older.
And the view of the wastewater?
Recently, the coronavirus load in wastewater has become more important. People infected with Covid-19 excrete fractions of the pathogen through their feces and urine. This means that the infections of people who cannot be tested for Sars-Cov-2 or who have no idea of an infection due to mild symptoms can also be detected in the wastewater.
According to the so-called wastewater monitoring for epidemiological situation assessment (AMELAG) of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), one liter of wastewater currently contains 727,275 gene copies of Sars-CoV-2 (Previous week: 687,386). This puts the number at a record high. However, the data has only been collected since June 2022.
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