The Poland he watches with concern the eastern border and the government has decided to increase security forces along the border with Belarus. Yesterday the agency Reuters reported the news of the announcement made by the defense minister Mariusz Blaszczak about the deployment on the border of ten thousand men. The announcement joins what was declared in the previous days by Interior Ministry officials, who had spoken of sending thousands of units to the border given the increase in the flow of migrants from Belarus. An increase that for the executive would be the result of a maneuver by Mosca e Minsk to destabilize the country as happened in 2021, when the migrant crisis was one of the most difficult moments for Poland e Lithuania.
The tension between Warsaw and Minsk has been growing steadily for some time. In the background there is the ever-widening divergence between a rising power with strong Atlantic traction such as Poland and a country considered a protectorate of Vladimir Putin, namely Belarus. But the last few years have also been marked by individual episodes that have brought down relations between the two neighbors. In 2020, when Lukashenko was the subject of protests that seemed to lead to a revolution, Poland supported the cause of the demonstrators, provoking the wrath of the leader in the east. The migrant crisis of 2021 he then exacerbated the confrontation, with Warsaw which accused the Belarusian government and its security forces of using human trafficking to put pressure on the country as an external border of the European Union and Nato. The guerra in Ukraine it has provoked a new and inevitable collapse of the already almost non-existent relationships. And the evolution of the war events has further put the government of Mateusz Morawiecki on constant alert.
Russia has decided to send tactical nuclear warheads to Belarusian territory. A choice that caused Polish anger and the concern of all neighboring countries and beyond. A few days ago Poland denounced the entry into its skies of some Belarusian helicopters. Furthermore, in recent months there has been discussion of the deployment of Wagner’s forces in some areas of Belarus after the mysterious (and still obscure) revolt orchestrated by Evgenij Prigozhin. On this point it is interesting to note that at the end of July Morawiecki spoke of a “dangerous situation” in reference to some information on the movements of more than one hundred Wagner mercenaries towards the Suwalki corridor, a thin strip of land that joins Poland e Lithuania and which divides the Belarus from the Kaliningrad oblast of Russia, sul mar Baltic.
This week the Institute for the Study of war, one of the most authoritative think tanks that also follows the evolution of the conflict in Ukraine, reported some information from Moscow on the alleged withdrawal of some contingents of mercenaries (about 500 or 600 members) to send them to the Krasnodar Krai, Rostov and Voronezh regions of Russia. The whistleblower hypothesis dell’Isw is that Lukashenko refused to pay the mercenaries waiting for the Kremlin to do it, but neither the movements of the mercenary troops nor the veracity of this version can be confirmed. In fact, it cannot be excluded that the contractors can simply be used elsewhere and where it is more useful in Moscow. In any case, the issue is certainly being watched by Warsaw, which fears a dangerous convergence of threats to its borders with the fusion of various hybrid warfare tools, part of Russian doctrine for years. The alarm bells are also ringing for the approaching elections, which will be held on October 15th. The conservative government cannot risk the convergence of a migration crisis, a sense of insecurity and farmers’ protests over Ukrainian wheat. And the ten thousand soldiers on the border can also be a (very high-sounding) way to reassure the electorate.
© breaking latest news
Lorenzo Life