The key news of the Taiwan stock market today (6/19) is as follows:
A. Bullish factor:
1. The weighted index relied on the large-scale repatriation of legal person funds and a round of heavy-weight stocks in June, and the light boat passed the ten thousand mountains. The legal person began to gather expectations for the second half of the year. In the future, there will be an opportunity for both stocks and bonds. Morgan Stanley Securities has raised the target prices of several technology giants such as Huida in one breath.
2. Intel has made a major update to the client computing brand. On the 16th, it launched the new Intel Core and Intel Core Ultra processor brands, which will be launched together with the Meteor Lake processor in the second half of the year. According to market estimates, Intel’s most significant brand update in the past 15 years has already started the AI war between CPU and GPU in the consumer market, and the terminal prices of new products will be adjusted accordingly. Jiance, Quanta, Inventec, etc. are expected to benefit.
3. IC design leader MediaTek will conduct ex-dividend transactions on the 20th, and each share will distribute a cash dividend of 76 yuan. Based on the closing price of 751 yuan on the 16th, the estimated reference price is 675 yuan, which will be lower than the integer level of 700 yuan, and the implied dividend yield is as high as 10.12%. In addition, TSMC’s advanced packaging concept stocks Xin Yun and Jingcai will also go ex-dividend this week, which has aroused market attention.
4. Major memory makers launched a price war in the second half of last year. After drastic corrections, Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix announced production cuts one after another. The industry generally expects that the room for future price declines will gradually converge. DRAM quotations are expected to be the first to drop. The fear of cheap prices no longer encourages the stock prices of the memory group to launch a wave of strong offensive first.
Individual stocks Team Group (4967) and Nanya Branch (2408) rose more than 10% in the week, ADATA (3260) rose more than 9% last week, and Macronix (2337) rose more than 8% last week, becoming new bright spots in the market.
5. When electronic stocks rose more and rested, research institutions collectively turned their attention to non-tech stocks on the 16th. The large shareholder of electric power concept Yuan (1504) was also raised by Cathay Pacific Securities and Yongfeng Investment Consulting, speculating on a reasonable stock price Break through 65 yuan.
Jinghua (2707) is the main beneficiary of the rebound in tourists to Taiwan. KGI Investment Gu Chupin called for a buy; Dongyang (1319) is gradually showing the effect of expanding the use of after-sales maintenance (AM) parts, with a target price of 60 yuan.
6. Screen foreign investors who came to invest in the letter in June with the same aspirations as “Tuyang Tong Buying Stocks”, and the number of stocks bought during the period exceeded 300, supplemented by stocks that maintain a long-term technical position, including EVA Air, China Airlines, Quanta, Datong, Zhengxin, Gigabyte, Xinquan, Delta, United, Huafu, Evergreen Steel, Juyang, Qiaowei and other 13 stalls were listed.
7.The business opportunities of Taipower’s strong power grid plan have pushed up the demand for heavy power equipment. Heavy power stocks have become one of the strongest groups in Taiwan stocks recently. Since the rise of many heavy power stocks since the end of last year, their share prices have more than doubled. ) is more than 3 times. Although the old mechanical and electrical manufacturers TECO (1504) and Datong (2371) rose late, they benefited from the high demand for energy conservation and carbon reduction from all walks of life. Energy-related businesses have driven the overall performance growth momentum to be strong。
The heavy power group has recently become a hot spot for Taiwan stocks. Last week, the stock prices of ZTE (1513) and Datong rose by 13% and 12% respectively, and Huacheng, Yali (1514), and Lay’s Green Energy (1529) also rose by more than 5%.。（read more）
8. Timing is about to enter the third quarter. Taichung-listed cabinet builders include Shuntian (5525), Sakura Construction (2539), Kunyue (5206), Fuyu (4907), and Fuwang (6219), etc. , as the second half of the year enters the peak period of new case recognition and listing, not only will the revenue show a jumping growth, some construction companies may even have the opportunity to make a triple jump in profit!
9. Entering the peak season for shipments, and the inventory digestion of brand apparel factories has come to an end, the revenue of the ready-to-wear group has seen a recovery in May. Ruhong (1476), Juyang (1477), Guangyue (4438), Guanglong (8916) Other garment factories pointed out that the proportion of long-term orders from customers has increased, orders from new customers have increased, and operations are expected to rebound from the third quarter.
Since 10.6, Taiwan stocks have performed like a rainbow, breaking through the “ten thousand seven” in one fell swoop. From the end of May to June 16, a total increase of 709.95 points, or 4.28%, has encouraged Taiwan stock ETF fund transactions to become more popular. According to statistics, the Taiwan stock ETF fund has a second tranche of new listings in June, and the total scale has increased by 87.053 billion as of the 16th. Among them, the high dividend distribution Taiwan stock ETF fund has a promising future.
11. The eight major state-owned stock brokers and foreign capital have always adopted more confrontation in the overall operation of the stock market, either “you throw it away and I pick it up”, or “I throw it away and you pick it up”. 2357), Yuantai (8069), ASE Investment Holdings (3711) and other 11 stocks, “seeking common ground in differences” appeared, and they were overbought at the same time, and the overbought amount exceeded 1 billion yuan.
12. Inventory adjustment is coming to an end, but the recovery is not as strong as expected due to sluggish demand. Facing the traditional peak season in the second half of the year, Lin Jinlong, general manager of cooling stock Wang Jiance (3653), said that although the worst situation has passed, the second half of the year will also It is worse than the first half of the year, but it can only be regarded as “slow recovery”.
13. Selected securities dealers who have bought super stocks for at least five consecutive days include Wistron, MediaTek, Evergreen, Chunghwa Electronics, Uni-President, Far Eastern Technologies, Lite-On Technology, ASE Investment Holdings, Ruiyi, Faraday, TSMC, Taiwan University, There are 17 stalls including Tyvison, Taixin Gold, Asia Pacific, Evergreen Aerospace, and Eastern Union.
14. Although the general environment is not good and the demand for consumer electronics needs to be boosted, the growth direction of Bizlink-KY (3665) has not changed. Hope to maintain the trend of quarter-by-quarter growth, but it will not be a high-speed growth.
15. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Beijing on the morning of the 18th for a two-day visit to China. This is not only the highest-level U.S. official since October 2018, but also Blinken’s first visit to the mainland as Secretary of State. The outside world generally expects that although it is difficult to make a major breakthrough in Sino-US relations, the two sides will strive to facilitate the talks between the leaders of the two countries in the second half of this year. (neutral view)
16. The 618 shopping festival in mainland China is about to debut. The market is concerned about the momentum of terminal consumption. The inventory adjustment of the panel and memory “Double D” group is expected to come to an end. The day generally went up, brewing upside opportunities.
Cai Mingzhang, general manager of Wanbao Investment Consulting, said that Taiwan stocks have received red for five consecutive weeks, and they will face the test of Taiwan’s futures settlement and the Dragon Boat Festival holiday in the near future. It is expected that the theme of AI will still be the focus of the market, but short-term gains and stock prices overreact to related concept stocks Pay attention to the risk of changes in the Dragon Boat Festival.
17. The biennial Paris Air Show, the largest in the world, debuted on the 19th. Taiwan’s aerospace industry newspaper group participated in the exhibition to grab business opportunities, led by leading manufacturers Hanxiang and Evergreen Aerospace, combined with Minjun Precision, Asia Pacific Elite, Rongtian Seiki and Maruei Machinery and other industrial chain manufacturers went together, and played a group battle in the form of Taiwan Pavilion. Manufacturers in the aerospace industry chain, including Shengtian and Zhulong, also sent personnel to the Paris Air Show to visit customers and contact business opportunities for orders.
18. Zhang Wenjie, general manager of AOI Equipment Factory Yutian Xinji (3455), said that orders are currently being received normally, but some industrial operations are adjusted, and delivery may be delayed by one to two quarters. It is expected that operations will return to normal in the fourth quarter. This year, Youtian’s revenue from PCB and semiconductor products is expected to increase further. Recently, it has also received large orders for In Line AOI and Mura testing from a major mainland panel manufacturer’s 8.6-generation line new factory, injecting momentum into its subsequent operational growth this year. (neutral view)
19. The leading optical manufacturer Largan has multiple layouts. Its Dagen Optical has cut into automotive lenses, Dayang Technology has deployed voice coil motors, and Xingou has stepped into contact lenses. Its subsidiary Dali Yunkang launched the first in China to obtain the certification of the Taiwan Sleep Medicine Association. Lin Enping, the chairman of Largan, went north to the platform, emphasizing that every household should have one.
20. The latest statistics on the fund size of the Trust and Investment Advisory Association have been released. In May, the investment scale increased by 148.7 billion yuan compared with the previous month. Among them, the Taiwan stock ETF fund increased by 91.5 billion yuan, followed by the bond ETF 48.6 billion yuan, and the popularity of Taiwan stock funds has resumed. It also increased by 36.5 billion yuan, making the scale increase this year by 712.9 billion yuan, and the overall scale exceeded 5.5 trillion yuan, setting a new record high.
21. Stock Wang Xinhua (5274) participated in the 2023 InfoComm professional audio-visual equipment exhibition in Orlando, USA for the first time last week (14-16), exhibiting a full range of smart video application products, including video transmission control system single chip (SoC), and can be matched with Xinhua Cupola360 series panoramic multi-image stitching image processing chip and Cupola360 panoramic 360-degree camera, through Cupola360 technology brand promotion to build a blueprint for smart factory applications.
22. It is expected that low-orbit satellite business opportunities will be fermented under the new wave of “communication uninterrupted” application development. Shi Xuanhui, director of Acer Group, set up Zhitan Space out of his own pocket and invested in the design, development and manufacture of cube satellites and micro satellites. It is expected that by the end of next year, at least Eight self-made CubeSats have been launched into space and into orbit, and it is expected that the operation will achieve a balance of profit and loss within three years.
23. According to data from multiple mainland OTA platforms, in the past week, the number of travel bookings during the Dragon Boat Festival has nearly doubled compared to the first half of June. . In addition, after experiencing the situation of being unable to buy tickets during the “May 1st” holiday, coupled with the drop in air ticket prices, the enthusiasm for bookings for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday in mainland China this year is high, and the pace of bookings has been significantly advanced.
24. The Taiwan Railway Company will be listed in January next year, and the short-term debt of 170 billion has become the most difficult issue. It is reported that in order to increase the strength of debt repayment, Zheng Wencan, vice president of the Executive Yuan, made a new move to help Taiwan Railways find new sources of income. It is planned to transfer the upper volume of the Kaohsiung Port Station (including Lingang Line) base originally listed in the sinking fund to Kaohsiung. The 71st phase of urban land rezoning is expected to attract more than 10 billion yuan of investment.
After the corporatization of Taiwan Railways, a sinking fund will be set up to be responsible for the settlement of 170 billion short-term debts. It is estimated that the repayment will be completed within a period of 30 years, and the annual interest payment of about 2 billion will be borne by the government. According to the plan of the Ministry of Communications, about 1,356 pieces of land have been transferred to the National Development Administration of Taiwan Railways, including the E1E2, Taipei Machinery Factory, Kaohsiung Port Station and the former Taiwan Railway Bureau, and included them in the sinking fund.
25. According to the latest data released by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the average interest rate on 30-year fixed mortgages in the United States fell to 6.77% in the week ended June 9, falling for the second consecutive week, driving demand for mortgages in the United States to surge , the highest increase in three months.
26. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Benjamin Netanyahu) announced on the 18th that he has reached an agreement in principle with the US chip giant Intel (Intel), which will invest more than 25 billion US dollars in the local new chip factory and will use the 7-nanometer process To produce chips, this is the largest international investment in Israel’s history.
27. The central bank announced the international investment position in 2022, and the net assets continued to hit a record high, reaching US$1.71603 billion. Converted at the exchange rate of NT$ to US$30.708 at the end of last year, it has reached more than NT$52 trillion. It is the fifth largest net creditor country in the world.
28. Non-tech stocks in Taiwan sounded the horn of counterattack. Chen Jianming, director of research department of HSBC Securities Taiwan, pointed out that the catering industry is about to enter the traditional peak season, and he is optimistic about the acceleration of revenue momentum in the next few months. He will speculate that the reasonable stock price will increase to 240 yuan; CITIC Investment Advisors is optimistic that Juyang (1477) will have urgent short-term orders in the second half of the year, and will continue to grow in 2024.
B. Bearish factor:
1. The housing market policy continues to be tightened, the transaction momentum of the residential market cools down, the development focus of developers shifts to the construction of commercial and industrial real estate, and the structure of new real estate continues to tilt towards commercial and industrial real estate. In the first four months of this year, the proportion of building construction licenses and residential buildings in Taiwan fell below 50% for the first time, even lower than the bottom of the housing market boom in 2009 after the financial tsunami and 2016 when the real estate tax was implemented. .
2. The Ministry of Labor conducts an annual survey on labor life and employment conditions. According to the latest statistics, the average retirement age for labor planning is 61.3 years old, the same as the previous year, but 12.4% of laborers have not planned for the source of living expenses after retirement, setting a new high since the survey.
3. It is understood that a group of more than 60 people from the seven export credit banks of CIP, an offshore wind power developer, will arrive in Taiwan on the 26th. Together with domestic and foreign host banks and joint lending banks, a total of more than 100 people will go to the sea to audit the offshore wind farm in Changhua. After the epidemic, CIP planned construction progress in Zhangfang and Xidao, Taiwan, and inspected the production status of supply chain manufacturers. At the sensitive moment when the administrative contract of Phase 3-1 of the block development is about to be signed at the end of the month, the large-scale audit operation of the banking consortium has attracted much attention. (neutral view)
4. According to the current regulations, workers must be 63 years old to receive labor insurance old-age pension, but starting from 2024, the old-age pension will be raised by one year from next year, that is, workers who are 50 years old in the Republic of China want to claim full old-age pension You have to wait until the age of 64, and it is estimated that about 140,000 people are affected.
5. The countdown to Disney Channel’s complete withdrawal of channels, and the film and television content industry’s collapse. Since Disney’s Satellite TV Movie Channel and Chinese Channel are the largest buyers of Taiwanese movies and variety shows, it will seriously affect the future sales of film and television copyrights, and opportunities will be exposed on international channels. Cai Jiajun, director of the Institute of Cultural Affairs, revealed that he has recently proposed investment plans to international companies such as the United States, Japan, and South Korea. The government will take the lead in inviting foreign companies to jointly invest in Taiwanese content, match domestic TV channels, and OTT cooperation, hoping to create a win-win situation and turn crises into opportunities. .
6. The cooling of US inflation caused the Federal Reserve (Fed) to suspend interest rate hikes on the 14th as expected, but the latest report from Goldman Sachs pointed out that the market is too optimistic about the rate of inflation decline. Gao Er’s hawkish remarks made Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s report to the US Congress this week attract much attention.
7. Under the influence of a downturn in the economy and a broken capital chain, the reshuffle of the new energy vehicle market in mainland China has intensified. Changjiang Automobile, AIWAYS and other once-famous “new car-making power” brands are now frequently suspending production, arrears of wages, News of the closure. The latest news is that Byton Motors, which was once favored by Ningde era and supported by Foxconn’s capital injection, also announced its exit after the failure of financing.
8. The sale of insurance policies by banks has shrunk significantly, and they have switched to selling high-yield U.S. bonds. According to data from the Life Insurance Association, in the first five months of this year, banks’ sales of insurance policies accounted for 41.8% of the overall new contract premiums, which was at least a 13-year low. Type insurance policy, the new contract premium for the first five months will be reduced by as much as 30% annually.
9. The Federal Reserve (Fed) suspended interest rate hikes in June. At present, the interest rate announced for domestic US dollar insurance policies has also stood at 4%. Is interest-variable insurance policies going to recover? Life insurance companies believe that U.S. bond yields will affect the sales of U.S. dollar interest-changing insurance policies. Since the Fed hinted that there may be another 2 yards (1 yard is 0.25 percentage points) before the end of the year, the U.S. bond yields have risen slightly recently. The market estimates that it will have to wait After the U.S. bond yield falls, interest-variable insurance policies have a chance to recover. (neutral view)
10. The stock price of Chicony (2385) fell sharply on the ex-dividend day. Because the stock price reached the standard for public attention, Chicony announced that it will self-close profit and loss in May. Chicony said that the company’s operating fundamentals are normal, and its operating outlook remains unchanged. The first quarter’s operations bottomed out, and its performance is expected to grow quarter by quarter.
On the 16th, Chicony used 105 yuan to ex-dividend 7.5 yuan, and the ex-dividend reference price was 97.5 yuan, but the sell orders poured out to the market, and the final closing price was 95.2 yuan, bursting out a large number of 14,700 pieces.
further reading
17 eye-catching auto dealers
11 tranche of official stocks, foreign investors have the confidence to buy together
Double advantage China Airlines, Quanta and other 13 local and foreign legal persons buy together
The price of the memory group such as Team Group and Nanya Branch strengthened
MediaTek leads the semiconductor ex-dividend show, adding vitality to Taiwan stocks
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