[Epoch Times, October 22, 2022](Epoch Times reporter Song Tang comprehensive report) On Saturday (October 22), the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China closed. There is no intention to reflect on the mistakes of domestic and foreign policies. Instead, like all communist authoritarian regimes, the CCP blames its plight on containment and sabotage by external forces.
The analysis believes that, compared with the previous report of the party congress, part of the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China on October 16 has undergone a subtle but significant change, linking everything to the security of the CCP regime, and economic development is no longer the focus of the future; On the same day, “struggle” was also included in the party constitution, indicating that the CCP’s rule was already in precariousness.
Significantly different from the tone of the 19th report in 2017, the 20th report opened a new chapter of “national security (regime security)”, and “security” appeared 91 times, while in 2012’s 18th report, “security” appeared only 35 times. times; the word “military” appeared 21 times, but only 4 times in the 12th National Congress of the Deng Xiaoping era in 1982; the word “struggle” appeared 22 times, but only 5 times in the 18th National Congress.
Even as the CCP is increasingly besieged by the international community, Xi Jinping also did not mention that the CCP is in a “period of strategic opportunity,” a term that, over the past 20 years, has always highlighted the CCP’s focus on trade and economic development strategies.
Since the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 1987, the term “political system reform” has appeared in every party congress report. But this time, the term “political system reform” disappeared completely in the report of the 20th Congress. “Corruption” was also mentioned 29 times in the 20 major reports, setting a record for the CCP congress after Mao Zedong. After a decade of fighting corruption, Xi Jinping says there will be no slack.
Observers analyzed that the biggest risk Xi Jinping faces is himself. The centralization of the CCP leaders will not only cause policy disasters, making them unable to hear the truth, but also make the West, facing the CCP’s hard-line policies, more and more clear about its China policy. change.
“Regime Security” debuts
There is a brand new chapter on national security (regime security) in the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China report. The “regime security”, “system security” and “ideological security” mentioned in the report are all new contents not included in the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.
The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposes to “promote national security in all fields and stages of the work of the party and the state” and adhere to “centralized and unified leadership of national security work”, which reflects the panic mentality of the CCP regime when it is besieged by the international community.
Data compiled by Bloomberg show that in the nine years from 2012 to 2021, Xi Jinping mentioned “economic development” in his annual speech significantly more than “national security” until 2019. But since then, the frequency of the term “national security” has overtaken, and the number of “coordinated development and security” has been increasing.
On the development and security nexus, the Top 20 report introduced a new phrase “ensure development and security”.
According to Bloomberg’s analysis, if the expression changes, it means that the CCP’s leaders have officially raised the importance of national security to a whole new level.
“Development remains extremely important in this formulation,” said Howard Wang, an analyst at the RAND Corporation. “But it has not become an independent policy priority that is more important than China’s security interests.”
Wang Hao believes that Beijing’s recent policies, such as tightening regulations on large technology companies and insisting on a “zero-clearing” policy, show that it is willing to bear the economic cost to ensure “security”, especially “the political security of the CCP leadership.”
The report also called for strengthening “mechanisms to counter foreign sanctions, interference and long-arm jurisdiction,” which Beijing has long followed and criticized for U.S. economic sanctions, but this is the first time it has appeared in a party congress report.
deteriorating external environment
In the full report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the CCP said that the CCP is facing “dramatic changes in the international pattern, especially the external attempts to blackmail, contain, block and exert maximum pressure on China (the CCP).” attempts may escalate at any time.”
The report goes on to warn of the risks of “black swans” (unforeseen, unlikely, high-impact events) and “grey rhinos” (obvious, high-impact threats that are often overlooked, such as Taiwan independence) .
Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd wrote in the “Financial Times” that the most disturbing of the 20 reports is the CCP’s analysis of the rapidly evolving external strategic environment.
Rudd said that since the 1990s, there has been a standard formulation in the reports of the CCP congress, that “peace and development” are the themes of the times. Reports since 2002 have stated that “China is experiencing a period of strategic opportunity”. But in the Big 20 report, those standardized claims disappeared. It is clear that the CCP can no longer rule out the possibility of a large-scale war in the foreseeable future.
Rudd said Xi described a “severe and complex international situation” in which the party must “prepare for dangers in peacetime” but also “prepare for storms”, calling on the party to continue to uphold the “spirit of struggle”. Xi declared the next five years to be a “critical” period to “improve the military’s ability to win wars.”
In addition, at the conclusion of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, it was agreed that the content of carrying forward the fighting spirit and enhancing the fighting ability should be written into the CCP constitution.
The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has a very pessimistic expression on Sino-US relations.
The so-called “great power relations” refers to Sino-US relations. A recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), an American think tank, analyzed that compared with the 19 major reports, the 20 major reports have two important changes.
First, the term “cooperation” has been replaced by the less ambitious goal of “virtuous interaction,” suggesting that the Chinese government may see a bleak outlook for cooperation and at best hope for positive interaction.
Second, the report adds a statement of great power relations, namely “peaceful coexistence,” a common phrase, but its inclusion in the description of great powers may reflect the Chinese government’s negative trend toward U.S.-China relations as well as Concerns about the increasing risk of crisis or conflict.
“Political reform” completely disappeared
Throughout the reform era of the CCP, the term “political system reform” has been used to refer to expanding public participation and oversight. This phrase was explicitly proposed by Zhao Ziyang at the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 1987. Since 1987, “political system reform” has appeared in every report of the CCP congress.
After the CCP’s severe crackdown on the pro-democracy movement in 1989, the term “political system reform” came and went, but it never disappeared. In both the 1997 and 2002 party congress reports, the word was mentioned in the subheading. In the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2007, “political system reform” appeared five times, but did not appear in the title.
By the time of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2017, Xi Jinping’s color had become clear. However, “political structural reform” still lingers, and Xi’s report mentioned the need to “actively and steadily advance political structural reform.”
However, in this year’s report, the reference to “socialist democratic politics” can still be seen, but “political system reform” has completely disappeared for the first time in nearly 40 years.
Step up military modernization
Compared with the 19th report, the 20th report is longer and has obvious changes in the section on the CCP’s military modernization and national defense.
The full report specifically calls for “accelerating” modernization in four areas: efforts to raise the PLA to “world-class standards,” “military doctrine,” the development of “unmanned intelligent combat capabilities,” and “development of modern logistics,” which may reflect It is the area where the Chinese military is facing the most severe challenges.
In addition to this, there are two notable changes in the section on the CCP’s military. First, it places more emphasis on training, especially the new acknowledgement that the CCP “will be better at deploying military forces on a regular and diversified basis,” which has not appeared in previous party congress reports or other authoritative documents, suggesting that the CCP’s military may be Want to gain practical experience.
Second, the report directly nodded in agreement with the rapid expansion of the CCP’s nuclear force, saying that it would “build a strong strategic deterrent system”, which was not available before.
Continuity of the Taiwan Question
On the Taiwan issue, there was no major shift in the Top 20 report. Since the CCP has set a goal of national rejuvenation by the middle of this century, many people interpret this as a deadline for Beijing to resolve the Taiwan issue. But the report did not provide any detailed unified timeline.
The 20th National Congress also included resolute opposition and containment of “Taiwan independence” into the party constitution.
Two minor changes in the report are noteworthy but do not reflect a major shift in policy, the CSIS analysis said. First, the report contains a statement not included in the 19th Congress report, namely that the CCP opposes “foreign interference” in Taiwan-related affairs. This reflects the Chinese Communist Party’s growing concern over US and international support for Taiwan.
Second, the report mentions that the CCP has “strengthened China’s fully unified strategic measures”. The term “strategic measures” is not new and is usually related to preventing and de-escalating risks, but this is the first time it has been mentioned in the report of the Party Congress. The use of the term when it comes to the Taiwan question shows Beijing’s desire to promote the development of cross-strait relations and progress towards reunification.
Not surprisingly, the report did not herald a change in Taiwan policy. Beijing released a white paper on Taiwan in August 2022, which laid out its views and methods in more detail. It is impossible for Beijing to issue a turning point on the Taiwan issue so soon after releasing a special white paper on the Taiwan issue.
The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China’s statement on the Taiwan issue also attracted the attention of the United States. White House Indo-Pacific affairs coordinator Kurt Campbell (Kurt Campbell) said on October 21 that the United States is paying close attention to the remarks on the Taiwan issue at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.
Secretary of State Blinken also said that Beijing has made a “fundamental decision that the status quo is no longer acceptable, and that it is determined to achieve reunification in a shorter period of time. If it cannot be done peacefully, it will resort to coercion, and if coercion does not work, it may use force to achieve objectives”.
“That’s what deeply disrupts the status quo and creates extreme tension,” he said.
People’s Democracy in the Whole Process
In the 20 major reports, “democracy” appeared 45 times, but the word “democracy” appeared in various combinations, such as “people’s democracy in the whole process”, “democratic centralism”, “democratization of international relations”, etc. , making it look more like an adjective than a noun.
Among them, “the whole process of people’s democracy” appeared for the first time. The analysis believes that this is a false concept fabricated by Xi Jinping in order to safeguard the CCP’s right to speak and counter the 2021 US democracy summit. “People’s democracy in the whole process” means that the people themselves cannot represent the people. directionally control the democratic process.
What is Xi Jinping’s greatest risk?
Rudd commented, but it is clear that the 20th National Congress report marks the return of the CCP’s “ideology”, both in Chinese domestic politics and in the international system as a whole.
The Wall Street Journal analyzed that the CCP’s confrontational stance does not make people feel relieved, but it has largely eliminated the ambiguity and differences that once existed in Western China’s policy.
The New York Times article said that the more enemies the CCP makes, the more repression it needs. Surrounding Mr. Xi with submissives may provide a sense of security, but it can cut off communication with important, truthful information, especially when that information is unpleasant. The lies the CCP regime tells the people to maintain power will eventually become the lies it tells itself.
From 1949 to 1976, Mao Zedong’s rule was marked by rash policy decisions that killed tens of millions and devastated China’s economy, CNN reported.
Over the past decade, Xi Jinping has consolidated control, breaking with a conventional third term and potentially ruling for life, a position not seen since Mao Zedong. But absolute power often means absolute responsibility, and as problems grow, Xi will have less room to evade responsibility.
CNN says China’s economy is crumbling, unemployment is rising sharply, endless zero-lockdowns are wreaking havoc on businesses and people’s lives, the real estate industry is in crisis, and relations between Beijing and major global powers are strained state.
Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, believes that Xi Jinping’s greatest enemy in his long-term rule of China is himself. When he made a huge policy mistake, causing chaos in China, it was possible to start dismantling the CCP’s grip on power.
Susan Shirk, president of the 21st Century China Center in the United States, said that many of the problems in the Chinese economy are caused by the Chinese leaders themselves, and Chinese officials “compete with each other to prove how loyal they are because the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party have promoted The faithful, not the most capable.”
Xie Shuli said this situation is reflected in the zero policy, because Beijing directly links the zero policy to its leadership, so local officials are keen to follow the zero policy to show loyalty and protect their positions.
Responsible editor: Lin Yan#