At this stage of the war in Ukraine, negotiations seem unthinkable – Pierre Haski

The word negotiated is in the air, but I want to be direct: at this stage of the conflict it is not a credible scenario. It is only talked about because no one wants to go down in history as the leader who refused to negotiate to put an end to the suffering and destruction in Ukraine. This consideration is part of the battle of storytelling on a world scale.

Who talks about negotiation? Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has contacts with both sides, will meet Vladimir Putin today in Astana, Kazakhstan, on the sidelines of a regional summit. Turkey has called for an immediate ceasefire and proposes to organize a meeting between Russian and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskii.

After the massive bombing of Ukrainian cities it might seem like a common sense proposal, but Putin, through various channels, has made it known what are the conditions under which he would agree to negotiate: Ukraine must abandon its claims on Crimea and the four annexed territories last week, located in the southern part of the country. Furthermore, Kiev must accept the status of neutrality.

Condition of parity
These requirements are completely impossible for Ukrainians after seven months of sacrifices. Among other things, the Ukrainian army is not in a situation of such difficulty as to justify what would look a lot like a capitulation.

Following the counter-offensive that made it possible to recover large areas lost after February 24, Ukraine has made it known that it intends to expel the Russians from all occupied areas, including those conquered before the invasion, Crimea and Donbass. .

Negotiations are only possible when one of the two sides is inferior and must negotiate to avoid total defeat. This is not the case with Russia or Ukraine. Putin is in trouble, of course, but after launching a partial mobilization and authorizing the indiscriminate bombing of cities, he is by no means inclined to tone down the clash.

Undoubtedly, the Russian president hopes that the Ukrainian population, subjected to dramatic suffering with the rain of missiles on the cities, will prefer surrender to the continuation of the ordeal. Once again Putin underestimates the Ukrainians.

The position of Kiev’s western allies remains. Passing through Paris on 11 October, Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyté, a fervent supporter of Ukraine, told us that at the beginning of the conflict she had feared that some European countries would succumb to the temptation to find an agreement with Putin . However, after the Buča massacre, the situation changed, Simonyté added.

In fact, the virtual summit of the G7 organized on 11 October reassured Zelenskii of his commitment “without doubt and unchanged” to provide Ukraine with the support it needs to defend its sovereignty. The statement speaks of the country’s “internationally recognized” borders, thus including Crimea. In short, no concessions to Putin.

Today the negotiation appears unthinkable. Could a window open next month at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia? The Russians say they are ready for a meeting with US President Joe Biden. Will the environment be more conducive to diplomacy in the future than it is today? The answer will come from the balance of forces on a military level and from the morale of the Ukrainian population under severe strain.

(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)