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A week ago, I put forward “Draged by Putin into the Millennium European Security Horse’s Nest, Is China Getting Out of the Hole?” “The problem. On February 28, the domestic media published “Ministry of Foreign Affairs: One country’s security cannot be built on the basis of harming the security of other countries.” On March 1, “Guangming Daily” published “The general trend of win-win cooperation between China and the United States is irreversible— – Looking back at the 50 years since the publication of the “Shanghai Communiqué”, the preliminary answer is given: Yes, China is on its way out of the pit.
This pit is deep and shallow. The shallow pit refers to “Putin’s plan to attack Ukraine, and if the war does not go well, nuclear deterrence will be used.” A deeper pit, in the words of European Commission President von der Leyen, is “Russia’s blatant attempt to rewrite the rules of the international system.” And how to rewrite the international rules, the size and depth of this pit, only Putin knows. But people have compared it to Hitler, and considered its methods extremely bad.
For Europeans who are accustomed to peace and believe that it is eternal, what has happened in the past week has been terrifying. If Putin’s initial military action was a punishment for NATO’s breach of oath and several eastward expansions, it would be excusable; since then, the nuclear deterrence has completely violated the common sense of human nature and kidnapped the world with nuclear weapons. The day-to-day changes in the security situation in Europe have caused Germany, which has been keeping a low profile in the military since the Cold War, to change its original intention, from not supporting Ukraine to supporting it, and increasing the proportion of military spending; Switzerland, which has always been politically neutral, also expressed its support for Ukraine.
So far, NATO has not intervened in Ukraine’s invasion. It has only provided weapons and economic support, and stood on the sidelines, leaving this small country alone to bear the consequences of NATO’s eastward expansion. Is this a move by the Europeans to repeat the policy of appeasement, or to save Europe from entering the third world war? This is for history to answer. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was often ridiculed as a comedian before, led the Ukrainian people to fight heroically, blocked Putin’s invasion speed, and won the respect and support of Europe and even the whole world. It can be said that the panic and fright caused by Putin’s demonic actions to Europeans, as well as Zelensky’s personal charm and the collective heroism of Ukrainians, have made European countries unprecedentedly united and produced unprecedented economic, sports, entertainment and other aspects. The effect of joint sanctions against Putin. To paraphrase the old Chinese saying, “the righteous one gets more help, but the one who loses the rightful one gets little help”, it is clear who is the righteous side.
While strongly condemning Putin’s actions of blackmailing and blackmailing with nuclear deterrence, and demanding that he immediately stop the invasion, the West has always attached great importance to how China chooses its position between the United States and Russia. On February 26, the New York Times reported that the United States had repeatedly urged China to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine, but China had not acted at that time. At present, China is beginning to slightly distance itself from Putin and gradually approaching the United States. This move may be regarded by history as “standing on the right side of history” along with Germany in the future.
But this choice is by no means easy. It is like walking a tightrope. It requires maintaining a high sense of political balance and ability. Because the relationship between China and the United States has been declining, public opinion generally believes that the two countries are in a competitive relationship. On the contrary, Sino-Russian relations seem to be entering a honeymoon period: after experiencing “mutually regarded as friendly countries”, “constructive partnership”, “strategic partnership of coordination” and “comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination”, in June 2019, The Sino-Russian relationship has been upgraded to the “China-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination in the New Era”; on June 28, 2021, it was announced that the Sino-Russian Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation will be extended; on February 4 this year, the relationship between the two countries reached a climax .
At that time, Putin flew to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics and meet with Xi Jinping. Xinhua News Agency reported: “Xi Jinping emphasized that in the face of the profoundly complex and evolving international situation, China and Russia are committed to deepening back-to-back strategic cooperation and safeguarding international fairness and justice side by side. This is a strategy that has far-reaching influence on China, Russia and the world at large. The choice will not be shaken in the past, present, and future… After the talks, the two sides issued the “Joint Statement of the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation on International Relations and Global Sustainable Development in the New Era”, focusing on China and Russia’s views on democracy, development common position in terms of view, security view, and order view.”
But it was at this juncture that doubts arose. At that time, Putin gave Beijing enough face and did not invade Ukraine until the end of the Winter Olympics. At this time, the West generally began to ask: “Did Putin tell the Chinese leader of his plan to invade when he visited Beijing?”
Those who think “yes” naturally form the following logic: Beijing supports Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and Putin will support Beijing to retake Taiwan. I have heard such judgments and concerns from the British media, MPs and friends around me.
And a week ago, “Draged by Putin into the Millennium European Security Horse’s Nest, is China going out of the pit?” ” article, I gave a different observation: “It is difficult to say that the cooperation between China and Russia is a win-win situation, or who has taken advantage of the other. From the perspective of the situation in Ukraine, China may have been used by Russia. It is possible that Putin told Beijing’s strategic deployment on the situation in Ukraine is not the bottom line for negotiating with European and American leaders. That is to say, what Putin told Beijing may be a less dangerous European security issue, while what Europe and the United States see is a world of terror Great war and nuclear war. Beijing is placed in this context by Europe and the United States, and it is on the same page as Russia, which is basically equivalent to opposing the European Union as an enemy.”
In fact, there is another possibility, that is: Putin really did not intend to invade when he was in Beijing. Or, his subsequent invasion was a temporary move. Because, according to a Feb. 28 Wall Street Journal report: “In previous conversations this year, Putin had promised Macron that he would not invade Ukraine.” If this explanation holds true, it would be appalling: a dictator’s A random thought can change or even destroy a country.
These two judgments can explain why the United States has repeatedly urged China to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine, but China did not. But on February 4, no one knows how much Putin paid with the Chinese state leaders. It is very likely that there will be no mention of “the use of nuclear deterrence”, but it must have made the situation serious for China. Because according to the Wall Street Journal article “Behind China’s Warning Against a Russian Invasion Is a Desire to Protect Ties With the US” on February 20, after Putin left, Chinese high-level officials stayed out for a long time during the Winter Olympics. , has been nervously brainstorming the situation in Ukraine and China’s positioning.
According to the BBC Chinese website: “Just hours before Russian President Vladimir Putin announced military action in eastern Ukraine, the United States accused Moscow and Beijing of joining forces to create a ‘extremely illiberal’ world order. However, US State Department spokesman Price (Ned Price also said that, given the new ‘infinity’ deal signed by Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the opening day of the Winter Olympics, this is an opportunity for China to use its influence over Russia to change Putin’s mind.”
On February 21, Putin began operations, announcing the recognition of the two republics in eastern Ukraine and the deployment of “peacekeeping troops”. China has not said on February 4, “China and Russia are committed to deepening back-to-back strategic cooperation and safeguarding international fairness and justice side by side. This is a strategic decision that has far-reaching influence on China, Russia and the world. will not falter,” and his response began to be fine-tuned, with no explicit support for Putin. According to Xinhua News Agency: “Zhang Jun, Permanent Representative of China to the United Nations, spoke at the emergency meeting of the Security Council on the Ukraine issue on the evening of the 21st, calling on all parties concerned to exercise restraint and seek a reasonable solution to the Ukraine issue through diplomatic efforts… Zhang Jun said. The development of the situation in Ukraine to the current situation is the result of a series of complex factors. China has always decided its own position according to the merits of the matter itself, and advocates that all countries resolve international disputes peacefully in accordance with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.”
On February 24, according to Xinhua News Agency, Hua Chunying said in response to a reporter’s question: “As for the Sino-Russian joint statement, we suggest that the US side read it carefully. China and Russia should strengthen strategic communication and coordination, and firmly safeguard the UN’s role in international affairs. The international system that plays a central coordinating role and firmly upholds the international order based on international law, including the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, is precisely the manifestation of responsibility and a positive factor in maintaining international strategic security and stability.
On the same day, Xinhua News Agency published the article “Wang Yi Talks with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov”: “Wang Yi said that China always respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries. At the same time, we also see that the Ukraine issue has its complex and special historical latitude and longitude, and we understand Russia’s legitimate concerns on security issues. China advocates that the Cold War mentality should be completely abandoned, and a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism should be finally formed through dialogue and negotiation.”
So far, China’s attitude is: respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, and at the same time understand Russia’s legitimate concerns on security issues. That is, it is politically neutral, does not support, but does not condemn Putin, and advocates resolving disputes in accordance with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter. However, the economy continues to maintain normal exchanges with Russia.
On the second day, February 25, the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported “Xi Jinping had a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin”: “Xi Jinping pointed out that the situation in eastern Ukraine has changed rapidly recently, which has attracted great attention from the international community. Qu Zhi decides China’s position. It is necessary to abandon the Cold War mentality, attach importance to and respect the reasonable security concerns of all countries, and form a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism through negotiation. China supports Russia and Uzbekistan to solve the problem through negotiation. The basic position of territorial integrity and compliance with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter is consistent. China is willing to work with all parties in the international community to advocate a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security concept, and firmly safeguard the UN-centered international system and international law. based on the international order.”
Comparing these two statements, it can be found that the similarities are “respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries” and “supporting the settlement of problems through dialogue and negotiation”, while the difference is that “the Ukraine issue has its complex and special historical latitude and longitude. Understand Russia’s legitimate concerns on security issues”, which translates into “China decides China’s position based on the merits of the Ukrainian issue itself.” It added: “China is willing to work with all parties in the international community to advocate a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security concept, and firmly safeguard the international system with the United Nations at the core and the international order based on international law.” Who are the parties in the international community? America? EU?
However, Putin did not accept China’s suggestion of “supporting a solution through dialogue and negotiation”, and the invasion continued.
At this time, under the intimidation of Putin, Europe is gradually forming a united front. In other words, Putin united the previously fragmented Europe. According to the reports I have seen, after Putin invaded Ukraine, the United States did not have official communication with China. The previous experience of hoping that China could stop Russia had failed. It is estimated that the United States gave up face-to-face communication with China, but it did not forget to remind “with China.” The consequences of Putin’s company.” Still on February 25, the same day, Reuters Beijing reported: “China had previously refused to call Moscow’s actions an ‘invasion,’ urging all parties to exercise restraint. Biden said, ‘Putin will be held in contempt by the international community. Any support for Russia Any country that makes a blatant aggression against Ukraine will be discredited for collaborating with it,’ but he did not name China.”
Perhaps because the West does not believe that China is willing to play a role in mediating the war, it is more willing to wait and see. So far, it seems that only German Foreign Minister Berke has spoken on the phone with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on February 27. According to a report on the Chinese government website “Wang Yi Talks with German Foreign Minister Belle Burke”: “Wang Yi said that China pays close attention to the changes in the situation in Ukraine and supports all efforts that will help to ease the situation and resolve it politically. Regarding European security issues, all countries’ reasonable All concerns should be taken seriously. In the context of five consecutive rounds of NATO’s eastward expansion, Russia’s legitimate security demands should be properly addressed. The Cold War has long since ended, and NATO needs to reconsider its position and responsibilities. China believes that based on group confrontation, The Cold War mentality should be completely abandoned. China supports NATO, the EU and Russia to resume dialogue and seek to build a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism to achieve long-term peace and stability on the European continent. China does not support the use of sanctions to solve problems, and is even more opposed to those that have no basis in international law. Unilateral sanctions.”
During the dialogue with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov three days ago, Wang Yi said: “The Ukraine issue has its complex and special historical latitude and longitude, and we understand Russia’s legitimate concerns on security issues.” German Foreign Minister Berberk said: “Regarding European security issues, the legitimate concerns of all countries should be taken seriously.” Both calls advocated dialogue and negotiation.
On the same day (February 27), Putin ordered the Russian nuclear deterrent force to enter a state of special combat readiness. What Europeans feared the most has finally happened – Putin is a lunatic who really dares to kidnap Europe with nuclear deterrence. At the same time, people also realized that his battle did not go as planned, because he did not expect Ukrainian President Zelensky to be so brave and rejected Biden’s escape plan, saying: “We want ammunition, not (Pick up my escaped) car.” In this case, Germany and other countries have clearly expressed their support for Ukraine. China’s attitude is notable.
On February 28 of the second day, the “Ministry of Foreign Affairs: One country’s security cannot be built on the basis of harming the security of other countries” mentioned in the first paragraph of this article, and the “Guangming Daily” on March 1, the third day, appeared. “The general trend of win-win cooperation between China and the United States is irreversible: Looking back on the 50th anniversary of the publication of the “Shanghai Communiqué”. Although there is no one-step statement in these two statements, it can be clearly seen that China’s position is alienating Russia and moving closer to the United States.
For China, this is a difficult choice. The Wall Street Journal article “U.S. to make China pay for close ties with Russia amid Ukraine crisis” best describes China’s diplomatic prospects: “U.S. officials say the U.S. is expected to get the gain, and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is an opportunity to force China to make a choice: to side with Russia, or to maintain important economic ties with Europe, the United States, and the rest of the world?”
The future of Sino-Russian-US relations is unpredictable. But after being dragged into the millennium European security hornet’s nest by Putin, the past week has continued to show that China is coming out of the hole.
(Note: The author is a British sociologist. This article only represents the author’s personal views. The editor-in-charge email [email protected])