[The Epoch Times, October 12, 2022](The Epoch Times reporters Lin Cenxin and Yi Ru interviewed and reported) On the eve of the upcoming 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, more places in China have adopted strict closure and control policies. Travelers are locked in their cars, and various situations emerge one after another. Experts believe that due to the inability to predict when the CCP’s zero-clearing policy will end, ordinary people’s sense of uncertainty about the future has doubled, which is reflected in the shrinking of the consumption and service industries.
After the college was blocked and the car was sealed with a seal 00: everyone was numb
A post-00 girl posted a post on Chinese social media during the 11th holiday, which attracted many comments from netizens. The little girl said that she and her boyfriend were driving home, but at the highway intersection, the car was sealed and the driving license was confiscated. The 24-hour nucleic acid certificate was useless, and the two could only return the same way.
The woman said there were even people who were locked up at the school without even having a holiday. She sighed, “It is said that the epidemic has stolen our youth for several years… Everyone has gone from understanding and cooperating, to being a little bit rebellious, and now completely numb, incompetent and furious. Many people’s psychology, including me, is distorted, what? It’s normal life to be able to go out when you can, and it’s called long-distance travel when you can drive to the next province by yourself.”
A netizen left a message, “Contemporary college students are full of joy and emotion about the statutory holidays and the possibility of taking time off to go out. It’s really sad and pitiful.” An Anhui netizen said, “Suddenly, the school was closed on November 11.” Tianjin netizen said, ” They are also college students in grade 19, and they have been banned for three years after entering college life after the college entrance examination. I can really understand this feeling.”
After the November holiday, Shaanxi Lueyang Public Security issued a notice stating that on October 6, two drivers were “diagnosed as cases of new coronary pneumonia while driving. The spread of the epidemic has been filed for investigation.” This report immediately attracted comments from netizens, “The cab seal? Putting people in the car?” “Locking people in the car, how to eat, how to refuel?”
Before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China
Wang He, a current affairs commentator based in the United States, told The Epoch Times on October 11 that the CCP’s epidemic prevention and control, especially under the political pressure before the 20th National Congress, made the situation relatively tense. As soon as you go out for a trip, you may be blocked and employed on the spot at any time. This is absurd. More people have no money, and they have no willingness and ability to consume. In this case, consumption occurs in the traditional peak season. The decline shows that China’s political and economic situation is deteriorating.”
According to data released by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism of the Communist Party of China, during the November holiday from October 1 to 7, 422 million domestic tourists traveled in China, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, and 39% lower than the level of the same period in 2019 (before the epidemic); tourism revenue; A 26% year-over-year decrease, or about $40 billion, was less than half the level of the same period in 2019.
In terms of movie data, according to the box office data of Maoyan Professional Edition, the total box office of the movie from October 1 to 7, 2022 will be RMB 1.496 billion. From 2019 to 2021, it is 4.466 billion yuan, 3.967 billion yuan and 4.388 billion yuan respectively, which means that the box office this year is less than half of that of three years ago, hitting a new low in 8 years.
It is worth noting that the data released by Caixin Media and S&P Global on the 8th showed that Caixin China’s services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in September fell sharply to 55.0 in August from 55.0 in August. 49.3. This is the first time that the index has fallen below the 50 line of prosperity and decline after rising for three consecutive months. The index is an unofficial measure of the state of service sector activity.
Wang He analyzed that the service industry is the most sensitive industry and is highly related to the entire socio-political and economic situation. “As long as the city is closed, controlled, or statically managed, the industry can still produce bubbles, but for the service industry, it is completely one-size-fits-all. , is seriously affected by the epidemic. At the same time, the service industry is closely related to the employment of the majority of the people. The service industry is very sluggish and has a large number of unemployment. Its service industry procurement index will inevitably drop significantly, and the overall state is shrinking. “
Expert: Dynamic clearing contradicts consumption promotion policy
Davy Jun Huang, an economist based in the United States, told The Epoch Times on October 11 that China’s frequent dynamic clearing, silent management, and suspension of urban commercial activities have had a huge impact on consumption. “Promoting the recovery of consumption as the main driving force” is fundamentally contradictory. “The closure and control have led to the cessation of normal private activities, not only the income is zero, but the authorities have not provided any subsidies. If you want to boost consumption, it must be a contradictory policy.”
The CCP’s “People’s Daily” recently published a commentary, emphasizing that “there is no way out” and “increase confidence and patience in the epidemic prevention and control policy”, with the intention of shouting to the common people and supporting the CCP’s epidemic prevention policy before the convening of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.
David Huang said, “It hopes to achieve the so-called ‘stable expectations’ through public opinion and psychological guidance, which is equivalent to using slogans. This kind of propaganda was effective in the past. For example, the Great Leap Forward and the Great Steelmaking in history are all by shouting slogans. This has worked in the past, but not now.”
He said that the main reason is the poor economic environment. The official unemployment rate for young people reached 18.7%, and private estimates may be between 20% and 25%, which means that one-quarter to one-fifth of young people cannot find it. Work, coupled with the underemployment of middle-aged and elderly people, people have no money in their pockets and can’t consume.
And he is not optimistic or confident about the economic prospects, David Huang said, “I can’t see when its policy will end. Everyone has a very pessimistic attitude about the future economic situation and will try to reduce consumption to prevent the foreseeable future. or unforeseen risks!”
Responsible editor: Gao Jing#