Seldom have a nation’s prospects imploded as dramatically as Ethiopia has. Not long ago this country of 110 million people, the second most populous in Africa, was considered a rare example of economic success. Twenty years of double-digit growth and extraordinary development breakthroughs were erasing the bad reputation associated with poor governance and recurring famines. In 2018, the rise to power of Abiy Ahmed, an aspiring modernizer, was seen as an opportunity to do even better. Abiy could have liberalized the economy and started a democratization process.
Yet since last November the situation has degenerated with a speed comparable to that of the latest events in Afghanistan. On the first anniversary of the war between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Tigrinya forces threaten to march on the capital Addis Ababa and drive Abiy out of power. The forces of the TPLF, the party that dominated Ethiopian politics until 2018, are not the Taliban, however brutally they may have ruled and whatever their critics may say. But like the Taliban, the TPLF has been banned by the government and criminalized. And now he could return to power by force. The conflict unleashed terrible violence.
On November 3, a joint investigation by the United Nations and the Ethiopian Commission on Human Rights, a state-appointed body, revealed that all parties to the conflict – government forces, their Eritrean allies, the TPLF and other militias – have “committed violations of human rights, humanitarian laws and those on refugees, which in some cases are considered war crimes and crimes against humanity”.
Ethnic hate speech has reached levels reminiscent of Rwanda before the genocide. The war between Addis Ababa and the TPLF has triggered another one between the Tigray and the Amhara, two neighboring regions with ancient rivalries and modern disputes over land and access to power. Abiy, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, appeared insane at times. “The pit that is being dug will be very deep and the enemy will be buried there, it will not be where Ethiopia will disintegrate,” he proclaimed in a speech this week, according to a Reuters translation. “We will bury this enemy with our blood and our bones.” A slightly softer version was removed from his Facebook account because it violated the rules on inciting violence.
It is difficult to see a way out. “There are two options,” Tewodros Hailemariam, a high-profile member of the Amhara National Movement, told the BBC. “Either the Tplf is defeated and the central government of Ethiopia is saved. Or the Tplf comes to power and takes control of Addis Ababa and civil war will break out across the country ”.
End of a system
How did Ethiopia end up in this situation? Most of the regions into which the country is divided – including Tigray, Amhara and Oromia – see themselves as nations with their own language, their own culture and contrasting versions of history. The transfer of control implies profound shocks in the balance of power between the peoples that make up the “Ethiopian Empire” and has often been traumatic.
Haile Selassie, who ruled a feudal system, was deposed and subsequently put to death by a Marxist insurrection in 1974. The junta that settled after the revolt, called Derg, dismantled the feudal land structures, but imposed a “red terror” culminating in a human-induced famine. After decades of what was perceived as Amhara domination, in 1991 a rebel army from Tigray led the forces that overthrew the Derg. Although the TPLF represents a region where only 6 percent of Ethiopia’s population lives, it remained in power until 2018.
Abiy originates from Oromia, the country’s most populous region, where more than a third of the country’s population lives, but traditionally relegated to the margins of power. His election came after years of protests against Tigray’s disproportionate influence on the country’s political life. Abiy promoted national unity. In the eyes of some it was the promise of a modern and ethnic-neutral democracy; for others it announced a return to the abolition of ethnic rights. Not only has Abiy not allayed the fears of a TPLF excluded from power, accused of terrorist actions to destabilize his government. But the support of the Oromo, its base, who feared a downsizing of regional autonomy in the name of the national vision, was also alienated.
This perception is at the origin of the current disaster. The armed group Oromo Liberation Army (Ola) has joined the Tplf and it is plausible that the two forces will march together on Addis Ababa. Abiy is now on the corner and anything other than a total victory will spell his political end. The TPLF is in a similar position: a breath away from the regaining of power, the organization defined by Abiy as a “criminal clique” faces the prospect of a crossing in the desert. The only possible way out is through dialogue. Unfortunately, it seems the least likely outcome.
(Translation by Giusy Muzzopappa)
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