The Federal Minister of the Interior is worried. “The danger continues to grow that Russia will try to influence public opinion in Germany through cyber attacks, propaganda and other methods,” said Nancy Faeser (SPD) of the Süddeutsche Zeitung. And, Faeser continued, the dangers have reached a new level.
Your warning comes against the backdrop of the upcoming European elections in June and three state elections in September. It is feared that Russia could try to mobilize support for pro-Russian parties such as the right-wing extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the run-up to the elections.
Hybrid Attacks: Russia’s Shadow War?
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Germany has long been a target of Russian influence. Since Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, many of these operations have been aimed at undermining public support for Ukraine. Now experts are calling for decisive action.
“It’s about showing determination and strength in the face of this and uncovering the means with which the other side operates,” says Rüdiger von Fritsch, former German ambassador to Moscow and ex-vice president of the German foreign intelligence service BND.
What is “hybrid warfare”?
When states combine military means with unconventional methods – from economic pressure to propaganda – it is called “hybrid warfare.” It is not a new phenomenon. For centuries, states have used non-military means to influence public opinion abroad.
Rüdiger von Fritsch was Germany’s ambassador to Moscow from 2014 to 2019Image: DW
However, the Internet and social media now offer them a whole new arsenal of online weapons: In so-called “hack and leak” operations, hackers gain access to sensitive or confidential information and strategically distribute it to the public. Cyberattacks can also be used to disable a country’s critical infrastructure, including voting computers or voting software. At the same time, online platforms are often used to spread false or misleading narratives.
“The possibilities of digital communication and modern social media are the dream come true of all intelligence services,” von Fritsch told DW.
How does “hybrid warfare” work?
Hybrid warfare is often described as a “shadow war” that takes place in secret and is never officially declared. “The concept of hybrid warfare is that you don’t notice it at first,” explains Leslie Schübel, Russia expert at the Hamburg-based Körber Foundation , speaking to DW.
Disinformation campaigns want to stir up doubts, says Leslie SchübelImage: DW
In January, the German government announced that it had uncovered a large-scale Russian disinformation campaign on X, formerly Twitter. Before they were taken down, fake accounts had spread more than a million messages with false or misleading claims. This was intended to create a mood against the German government and its help for Ukraine.
According to experts, the aim of such campaigns is to deepen social divides, stir up anger and arouse mistrust in politics, democratic processes and the media. “Just sowing doubt is already a success for Russia,” said Schübel.
Lessons from the “Taurus Leak”
While most hybrid warfare methods are never made public, some operations are deliberately made public. At the beginning of March, the head of the Russian state broadcaster RT published a confidential conversation between high-ranking German Air Force officers. The incident, known as the “Taurus Leak,” led to diplomatic tensions and plunged the Bundeswehr into a crisis.
“The affair also serves (Russian President) Putin’s domestic policy,” says Maria Sannikova-Franck from the think tank Center Liberal Modernity. The published conversation revolved around possible scenarios in Russia’s war in Ukraine. After publication, Russian media claimed that the recording showed that the Bundeswehr was discussing comprehensive and concrete plans for an attack on Russian territory.
Maria Sannikova-Franck heads the Russia program at the Center for Liberal ModernityImage: DW
“The picture that he [Wladimir Putin] What he wants to convey is that Germany and the West are threatening Russia, and he succeeded very well,” Sannikova-Franck told DW. “At the same time, he also successfully distracted from the death and funeral of Alexei Navalny.” Navalny, one of the most prominent Putin’s domestic political opponent, died in a penal colony in the Arctic in mid-February at the age of 47. He was buried on March 1 – the same day the recording was released.
How to fight back in hybrid war?
Defending against hybrid warfare requires a complex approach at various levels, experts say. Countries must adequately protect their critical infrastructure, including the technologies used in elections, from cyberattacks.
Thorsten Frei (CDU): In war you have to expect everything
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At the same time, the “Taurus Leak” incident also highlights the need to raise awareness of cybersecurity at all levels of society. The Russian secret service was apparently able to gain access to military communications because a participant had dialed into the conversation via an unsecured connection.
Finally, experts emphasize the importance of educating citizens about the methods of disinformation and making them aware that any information they see online could be intended to deceive or manipulate them. “It is important to uncover the mechanisms of this propaganda – how it works, how it influences us, how it influences opinions,” said Sannikova-Franck.