Athens, the Greek parliament © Tomas Marek/Shutterstock
Voting takes place in Greece on Sunday 21 May for the political elections with many uncertainties about the possible electoral outcome. The difficulty of creating a coalition to govern the country could lead to new elections in July with a new electoral law
On Sunday 21 May, exactly one week before the first round of elections in Turkey, the Greeks will also turn up at the polls. In Greece, the stakes are much lower, and the alternatives between candidates far less existential. What the two countries have in common is rather the great uncertainty that reigns on the eve of the vote.
While outgoing Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis hopes to be reappointed, the numbers suggest that it will not be easy to obtain, even if New Democracy, according to all polls, seems destined to be the first party with around 35% of the vote; SYRIZA’s left, still led by Alexis Tsipras, follows 6-8 percentage points behind; in the centre, Nikos Androulakis’s PASOK, characterized by moderate and pro-European progressiveness, is given by pollsters as the third party with about 10% of the votes.
However, with the proportional system in force, the first party needs more than 46% to be able to form a government autonomously. And since to date the possibility of a coalition seems unlikely, the most popular scenario is a repeat of the elections in early July, with a different electoral law.
Young people ignored by polls?
As per tradition, the six leaders of the main political forces – all men, this is also a tradition – faced each other in a televised debate. But thanks also to the conservative rules agreed by the parties, it was more of a collective rally than a frank discussion on the programmes. It is rather the controversy surrounding the polls that is taking center stage these days.
Mistrust of pollsters in Greece is nothing new, especially on the left. But a recent article by Euractive according to which most of the polls follow a flawed methodology: voters’ opinions are collected mainly from landlines, excluding the less well-off sections of the population and above all the younger ones.
Many see young voters as tipping the balance. The Tempi train tragedy, in which 57 people (mostly university students) lost their lives on 28 February, gave rise to a mass mobilization not seen for years. For weeks, tens of thousands of people took to the streets to protest privatizations and state failings. However, it does not appear that the protests have caused an exodus from the “establishment” parties towards the more radical ones. The preference of many young people could be abstention, especially if you had to re-vote in the middle of summer.
Possible scenarios
Barring surprises at the polls, everything leads one to think that the parties see Sunday’s elections as a popular investiture to be spent on a second election in early July. New Democracy announcements are already circulating on the web inviting Greeks residing abroad to register for a possible second round of elections: the last useful date for doing so is May 21st.
In the event of a repeat of the elections, around 36% of the preferences would be enough for the first party to form an autonomous government: in fact, a majority bonus is provided, taken from the percentages of political forces that do not exceed the threshold. If it approaches 35% this Sunday, New Democracy has a good chance of convincing voters to trust it in the second round in the name of the country’s stability.
SYRIZA, on the other hand, is aiming for a progressive coalition with PASOK, but this too seems feasible only after the second round. Tsipras has repeatedly denied wanting to lend himself to “an alliance of the defeated”, but the differences between him and Androulakis – who so far has not said he is willing to support a government led by Tsipras – does not seem impossible to iron out. More difficult for Androulakis to lend itself to a coalition with New Democracy, given that the political surveillance of which he has been the target it drove a wedge between him and Mitsotakis.
The left of MeRA25 led by former Economy Minister Yanis Varoufakis, the communists of the KKE and the far right of the Greek Solution are the other forces that appear destined to enter the parliament, but in all likelihood they will remain in opposition.
On the other hand, the neo-Nazi right will not enter parliament, given that the supreme court has confirmed the exclusion of the party National Party-Greeks from the electoral race. Founded by Ilias Kasidiaris, who is serving over 13 years in prison as a former leader of the criminal organization Golden Dawn, the Greeks (Hellenes) party has expanded its base through Youtube, where Kasidiaris’ channel has 137,000 subscribers. Kasidiaris’ orphaned voters could redirect their vote towards the Greek Solution, or towards smaller far-right parties.
In the name of stability
Mitsotakis aspires to be reconfirmed thanks to the country’s newfound financial attractiveness, widely celebrated in the international media such as the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal in recent days. Erdoğan’s unexpected lead in the Turkish election could also prompt Greeks to back Mitsotakis, whose reputation is in better health than that of his international rival Tsipras. A second New Democracy government would help instill a sense of stability both domestically and in foreign policy.
The opposition, for its part, takes advantage of the gap between macroeconomic performance and real life, in which millions of voters have to deal with high living costs and too low wages. Even the surveillance scandal involving the Mitsotakis government remains on the agenda, so much so that the hypothesis of a government aimed at “restoring” the rule of law has been floated. Sunday, the ball passes to the voters.
Have you thought about a subscription to OBC Transeuropa? You will support our work and receive preview articles and more content. Subscribers to OBCT!