More than two weeks after the Nigerien military junta government rose to power in a coup and vowed to free Niger from colonial influence, tensions in the region continue to rise and threaten to escalate into hostilities involving several African countries.
Military intervention by ECOWAS
After last Sunday the new Nigerian authorities rejected the ultimatum set by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which demanded the reinstatement of the ousted president, Mohamed Bazoum, the organization announced this Thursday that it supports a military intervention in the country “as soon as possible”.
Statements were already made last week about the need for a military operation by the ECOWAS joint forces, but now it seems that the organization is determined to take this step, despite the fact that not all its members agree. In this sense, in the near future, conferences of the chiefs of staff of the member countries will be held.
Meanwhile, the same day it was revealed that during a meeting between representatives of the military junta and the US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland, who visited Niger on Monday, she had been warned that they would kill Bazoum in case of any attempted military intervention by neighboring countries.
It should be noted that the senior US official herself described the negotiations with the head of Niger’s Special Operations Forces, Moussa Salaou Barmou, who serves as the junta’s defense chief, as “extremely frank and, at times, quite difficult”, and three colonels. In this context, Washington also decided to suspend certain assistance to the Government of Niger “as long as the situation remains unstable.”
International reactions to a possible military intervention
The ECOWAS announcement has provoked mixed reactions: some countries, both African and Western, expressed their support for the move, while others insisted that a peaceful and diplomatic solution must be found.
One of the first reactions was that of France, against whose influence supporters of the Nigerian coup are protesting. Thus, the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that Paris “supports all the conclusions” adopted by ECOWAS aimed at “reestablishing the constitutional and democratic order” in the African country.
Subsequently, the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, assured that Washington also strongly supports the efforts of the organization in this regard. In addition, in her words, during Nuland’s meeting with the coup leaders, she “made clear to them the imperative to restore constitutional order, as well as everything that is at risk if they don’t.”
One of the most determined ECOWAS member states on this issue is Côte d’Ivoire. Thus, the country’s president, Alassane Ouattara, assured on Thursday that his country will participate in the military operation, along with Nigeria and Benin. “We are determined to reinstate Bazoum in his post,” he declared, noting that his country will hand over a battalion of soldiers and that all financial preparations have already been made.
At the same time, there are countries that are opposed to any military intervention. For example, José Maria Neves, president of another ECOWAS member state, Cape Verde, stated that his country is opposed to the measure. “We must all work to restore constitutional order in Niger, but in no case through military intervention or armed conflict at this time,” he said, noting that Praia “could hardly join such a force.”
For its part, Russia was also opposed to hostilities. “We believe that the military path to resolve the crisis in Niger could lead to a prolonged confrontation in this African country and also to a strong destabilization of the situation in the entire Sahara-Sahel region,” the Russian Foreign Ministry reported.
Meanwhile, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani stressed that diplomacy must prevail to avoid the outbreak of war:
«Sometimes Europe has been wrong: we cannot think of imposing rules on the countries of the African continent, nor a social model that they cannot adopt. We must always act with respect towards them.”
Is the possibility of an intervention in Niger realistic?
It should be remembered that ECOWAS had ordered the deployment of its “reserve force” against the Nigerien military junta, although it has not yet been specified which countries will participate in the training, what will be the number of troops and what weapons will be used.
At the same time, it is still unclear whether the ECOWAS move will be carried out, as it is the first large-scale mission of its joint force, created some 30 years ago for peacekeeping, monitoring humanitarian operations, as well as to carry out preventive deployments. “On paper, it is a very solid mechanism to play a crucial role in the fight against the coup plotters,” said Me Oumar Berté, a lawyer at the Paris Bar Association specializing in ECOWAS law, noting that this is the first time that this force “mobilizes so quickly, without delay.”
However, one of the strongest arguments in favor of the intervention not taking place is the fact that, although the “reserve force” intervened on several occasions in Sierra Leone and Guinea-Bissau in the 1990s and 2000s, they did not it was deployed during the coups in Mali (2021), Guinea (2021) and Burkina Faso (2022).
In addition, according to Me Oumar Berté, not all countries were in favor of the creation of this force, which meant that several members did not participate in some of the bloc’s operations: for example, Burkina Faso and the Ivory Coast stayed. out of the war in Liberia in the 1990s. This fact shows that there is not always a consensus among the member countries of the bloc, which is confirmed by the actions of Burkina Faso and Mali, which supported the Nigerien military junta and made it clear that an intervention in Niger would be seen as an aggression against them.
Another obstacle to intervention in Niger is the difficulty in financing the “reserve force”. Although ECOWAS has its own funds, a military operation of this type can only be carried out with greater financial support from other countries and international organizations. “An intervention of this type will take time because, even if ECOWAS manages to eliminate the coup plotters, it will have to remain mobilized on the ground for a long time to guarantee the political stability of the country,” the lawyer concludes.
For its part, the French newspaper Le Monde also stresses that the African bloc’s military operation could face resistance from the Niger people themselves. “The accumulated frustration of the Nigerien population, which lives in unprecedented poverty, and the force of the junta’s anti-French rhetoric make any foreign intervention extremely complex,” the outlet indicates. with RT