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Ideological writing is inseparable from personal rich growth experience and perseverance of moral responsibility. As a senior Singaporean diplomat and diplomatic philosopher, Kishore Mahbubani’s long-term thinking and writing have demonstrated a true, cross-cultural, Chinese and Western ideological temperament and moral aspirations that coexist with understanding and mediation. He was born in a poor Indian family in Singapore. He lived in the context of conflict between Chinese and Malays in his early days. He grew up under the protective education system of the authoritarian government in Singapore and established close interaction with Western elite groups. He uses a unique “Singapore perspective” to understand and mediate Sino-US relations, and leads the “strategic competition” between China and the United States in a rational and constructive direction. His existing works on international relations and diplomatic philosophy have a distinctive personal mark and a coherent ultimate concern, based on the justification of “Asianity” and “Asian values” and his grim diagnosis and suggestions on the “peaceful decline” of the West. He published “Do Asians Think? “, “Has the West failed?” “The New Asian Hemisphere”, “The Great Fusion”, “Out of the Age of Innocence” and other influential works have produced greater impact and imagination between China and the West, and not only won the American strategic thinking such as Kissinger and Huntington The favor and affirmation of the masters has had a significant impact on China’s decision-making stratum and civil society. As Sino-US relations are inevitably moving towards a stage of “strategic competition” with “new cold war” factors, Ma Kaishuo’s reading, perspective, understanding and mediation framework deserves serious attention from both sides.
The ideological mediation of Sino-US relations is a super academic problem, and it is also a super international political problem. In terms of its size, nature, intensity of struggle, and global impact, Sino-US relations are no longer a simple Cold War framework that can be analyzed and accommodated. It is not even a mechanical application of the “clash of civilizations” that can work, nor can it be generalized to the East. It is positioned as a cultural difference with the West, but a globalized order of competition with the nature of the overall civilized competition. Yes, to be frank, what China and the United States are fighting for is “the world/the world“. What China cares about is “what the world is like”, while the United States only cares about “who owns the world“. For example, the United States does not care about the long-term welfare of the peaceful development of mankind brought about by the “Belt and Road”, but only cares about “who” is promoting and leading the “Belt and Road”. In the strategic panic and hasty response, the United States finally gave the overall framework thinking with the 2021 Strategic Competition Act. The basic thinking is still the nature of the Cold War. This is what Ma Kaishuo worries most.
Of course, Ma Kaishuo understands the great difficulty of undertaking this ideological mediation task, but he is also driven by long-term personal experience and moral mission. He does not avoid hardships and dangers. Under the challenge of the raging Trumpism and the clouded new cold war between China and the United States, Concentrated on thinking and launched the latest strategic analysis masterpiece “China’s Choice: Sino-US Game and Strategic Choice”. Ma Kaishuo’s strategic thinking was greatly influenced by the American Cold War master George Kenan, but he also had a reconciliation orientation based on the Asian position and human interests, and he believed that the Trumpist “rapid response strategy” deviated from Kenan’s prudent strategy. The framework has led to chaos in American domestic governance and a sharp decline in global soft power. With his keenness and frankness, Ma Kaishuo diagnosed the biggest strategic mistakes of China and the United States separately: China’s biggest strategic mistake is that the protectionist policy has frustrated and alienated the American establishment forces of the American business community and friendly China; the biggest strategic mistake of the United States is the constant lack of response. China’s comprehensive strategic framework. In comparison, Ma Kaishuo believes that although China also has strategic errors that need to be reviewed, it generally has a wise development strategy and strong political leadership, and has great potential for national rejuvenation and participation in global governance. The exceptionalism and sacred mission theory of “the city of shining peaks” cannot honestly review the actual strategic situation and moral deficiencies, and thus cannot carry out reasonable strategic adjustments and optimal allocation of interests. China is firm and wise, and the United States is intrigued and impulsive. As a result, even in accordance with the history of the Cold War, China is more like the United States at that time, and the United States is more like the Soviet Union.
Ma Kaishuo’s brain is wide open, and his straightforward and trivial analysis and criticism have more stimulus to the United States than China. Perhaps he thinks that only by smashing the myths and curses of American exceptionalism can the United States have real strategic new thinking and opportunities, and Sino-US reconciliation and global peace can hope. Therefore, although the title of the book is “China’s Choice”, the more than half of the book is to criticize and persuade the United States to make an unprecedented strategic assumption that the United States will inevitably become “the second in the world“, and then use this as a reasonable starting point for reconstruction. American national ideals and global strategy. Of course, Ma Kaishuo’s reminder of China’s institutional rigidity and development risks is also straightforward. While affirming the legitimacy of the “philosophical king” transformation of the Chinese system, it also reminds the key and risk of the succession mechanism and the transfer of power that are truly institutionalized. In Ma Kaishuo’s view, the real crisis in the United States lies in its outdated strategy, lack of willingness and ability to self-reflection and adjustment, interest group bundling and elite arrogance hindering the flexibility and mobility of the United States, the system and culture that the United States was once proud of Superiority seems rigid and “involved.” Therefore, Ma Kaishuo’s advice to the United States is not mainly institutional, but conceptual, that is, the United States needs to get rid of the myth of “exceptionalism” and return to the strategic land to think realistically, professionally and soberly. Ma Kaishuo believes that once the United States is truly strategically clear and realistic, its adjustment capabilities and effects will be immediate. But the question is, is the United States willing to re-layout with “the second in the world” as its strategic starting point? If the United States cannot get rid of the myth of exceptionalism, and if the collective unconsciousness of “America must win” prevents American politicians and people from telling the truth and thinking about useful and beneficial strategic measures, then use America’s arrogance, hegemony and facing realistic threats The “new Cold War” or “Thucydides trap” in Sino-US relations is likely to become what Joseph Nye calls a “self-fulfilling prophecy”. Comparatively speaking, it seems that China is easier to listen to some key strategic suggestions from Ma Kaishuo. It originally intended to actively negotiate and arrange mechanisms with the United States on common interests. China did indeed do so strategically. However, China and the United States are still strategically misaligned and extremely out of sync. Biden has become a “Trump +”, and the trade war has escalated into a technology war, a financial war and a cultural war. The Strategic Competition Act attempts to express and lock the United States‘ opposition as a whole. The strategic fear and Cold War mentality of China’s rise. The “Strategic Competition Act” presupposes not any possibility of the United States as “the second in the world” and any understanding and respect for the interests of Chinese culture and development, but stubbornly based on the premise of “America First” and “America First” Conduct a system-wide “hegemony defense war”. As a result, we have seen China’s strategic response and the “head-up confrontation” in Alaska. China’s senior diplomatic representatives expressed strong dissatisfaction and even contempt for the presupposition, logic, and behavioral patterns of the “strategic competition” of the United States.
Ma Kaishuo certainly understands that his new book cannot give a satisfactory answer to the reconciliation of Sino-US relations, and it is even extremely difficult to build a basic consensus and platform for Sino-US reconciliation dialogue. Although Singapore has the tradition and advantages of “small country and big diplomacy”, and China and the United States also value Singapore’s role as a “mediator”, the deep-seated civilization and political conflicts in Sino-US relations cannot be resolved by simple interest analysis and willingness to dialogue. of. China’s national rejuvenation is unstoppable, and the United States‘ defense of hegemony is irreversible. As the smartest “third party”, Singapore is naturally distraught, both for itself and for mankind. Ma Kaishuo’s most fundamental concern in this book is not China, nor the United States, but the interests of the “third party”. He believes that the Sino-US struggle cannot ignore the interests of a huge third-party country and region, and the third party’s strategic awakening and To a certain extent, a prudent choice can also check and balance and shape the new order of Sino-US relations. Ma Kaishuo knows his scale and puts forward a contradictory conclusion at the beginning of Chapter 9: “The major geopolitical competition between China and the United States is inevitable and can be avoided.” No matter how wise and experienced Ma Kaishuo is, The consequences of conflicts in Sino-US relations are still highly risky and uncertain. The decisive force that can be avoided is not in any “third party”, but in the strategic choice of the parties, namely, China and the United States. From the comparative analysis of the whole book, the risk and even desperate atmosphere suggested by Ma Kaishuo far exceeds the expectation of rational return and reconciliation. “Thinking in the Jedi” under the condition that despair is greater than hope is what Ma Kaishuo calls “imagining the impossible.” This quality of thinking is truly philosophical and strategic. As the best representative of the interests of the “third party”, Ma Kaishuo puts forward a severe strategic and spiritual torture against China and the United States at the end of the book: “In the final analysis, more than 5 billion people in the world expect the United States and China to do To: Committed to saving the planet and improving the living conditions of mankind, especially the living conditions of our own people. Therefore, the final question will no longer be whether the United States won or China won, but whether mankind will win.” Yes, Sino-US struggles, global fluctuations, and fairy fights are nowhere to be avoided, but what about human beings? This is a big issue that requires Chinese and American strategists and politicians to always think about. Moreover, judging from the experience of the real human history and global order struggle, any superpower, if it cannot give its own people and human interests a moral, balanced and sustainable cultural answer and institutional answer, it will not be possible to establish a legal system. And lasting cultural leadership and institutional authority. In fact, the new crown epidemic since 2020 has given China and the United States an excellent opportunity for cooperation to safeguard the overall interests of mankind. However, due to the serious decline of US strategic “superstition” and moral responsibility, even the confrontational appeal to China for “containment of the epidemic” , Leading to the spread of the United States‘ own epidemic and extreme irresponsibility in the global fight against the epidemic. Although China upholds the concept of a “community with a shared future for mankind” and has undertaken the responsibility for fighting the epidemic within its capacity, and has made positive contributions to national and human health, without the cooperation and joint commitment of the United States, the global “public goods” for fighting the epidemic will always be incomplete of. Look at India, look at Africa, the miserable situation is shocking. Therefore, Ma Kaishuo’s “third-party interest view” and “human interest view” are legitimate and can be responded to by China’s practice, but they have been coldly treated in the US’s established strategy and culture.
The narrative logic of the book is based on the biggest strategic mistakes of China and the United States and their civilizational and political roots. The strategic mistakes of China and the United States have caused frequent conflicts between the two sides when dealing with major strategic issues of interest, and struggle is greater than cooperation. Obviously, neither China nor the United States have made sufficient strategic preparations to deal with each other and the “big changes unseen in a century” of globalization. In the first chapter, Ma Kaishuo started straight to the point, referring to a strategic lesson he learned from Singapore’s diplomatic work experience: asking the right questions is the first step in formulating any long-term strategy. In fact, the greatest contribution of Ma Kaishuo’s book is focused on raising the “right questions” of Sino-US relations from the perspective of a “third party”. These questions are summarized into ten aspects that constitute the core research program of Sino-US strategic relations:
First, economic strength (GDP). When China’s economic strength surpasses the United States, how will the two sides’ strategies be adjusted? Can the United States conduct honest strategic reflection and reconstruction from the cruel starting point of “world second”?
Second, the issue of the conflict between imperial hegemony and national interests, is it “U.S. empire first” or “U.S. first”? This is a unique “Trump problem”, but the solution is wrong, but where is the right path?
Third, with regard to the arms race, should the United States become more obsessed with military power strategically or should it return to its diplomatic line? Will the military budget and its large-scale external expansion hollow out the United States like the Soviet Union?
Fourth, the issue of the alliance system, that is, how does the United States handle and coordinate the value and interest relationship with its allies? Is it to squeeze and alienate allies, or to protect and support allies? And how to define the boundaries and intensity of allies’ obligations? These are not simple questions.
Fifth, the issue of U.S. dollar hegemony is that the U.S. sovereign currency acts as the world‘s reserve currency, causing the U.S. to abuse U.S. dollar weapons to sanction other countries and undermine global financial stability, forcing countries to seek alternatives to the U.S. dollar. How does the U.S. strategically control U.S. dollar hegemony in order to rebuild countries against the U.S. dollar? Trust of the system? The weaponization of the U.S. dollar brings the end of U.S. dollar hegemony. Is it in the strategic interests of the United States?
Sixth, the issue of soft power, that is, how the United States rebuilds a domestic image of success and spiritual vitality, and prudently respects international law instead of wanton destruction, requires a strict strategic review.
Seventh, the issue of ideology, that is, the dichotomy of liberal democracy and authoritarian autocracy has given the United States a full sense of moral superiority and the right to speak internationally, but it does not conform to the reality of strategic competition with China, and has even been severely abused. Can the necessary updates be made in strategy and thinking?
Eighth, the issue of racism, that is, the “white racial superiority” deeply rooted in American strategic thinking, not only undermines domestic unity, but also undermines international mutual understanding and cooperation. How to clean up this thinking element is a major challenge.
Ninth, the issue of China’s perception of civilization, that is, whether the strategic rival of the United States is the “Chinese Communist Party” (Chinese Communist Party) or the “Chinese Civilization Party”. The United States has not figured it out and seriously underestimated China. The degree and strength of the Communist Party rooted in its own civilization.
Tenth, the question of strategic philosophy, that is, the American strategic philosophy is based on a thinking similar to “chess”, with “find the fastest way to capture the king” as its guiding principle, seeking “stuck necks” and “extreme pressure.” The strategic philosophy is based on a thinking similar to “Go”, “committed to slowly and patiently accumulating assets in order to break the balance of the game and make changes in the situation beneficial to oneself”. This last point is the most critical point. It involves the biggest blind spot of the American strategic philosophy to China, and the utilitarian and short-term American strategy constitutes a serious shortcoming in the long-term strategic competition with China. Ma Kaishuo issued a shocking warning: “Has the United States prepared enough resources for long-term competition? Does American society have the inherent strength and endurance to deal with the long-term game with China?” This question is not easy to answer.
Judging from the above-mentioned “ten major issues”, Ma Kaishuo mainly put forward the “soul torture” of American strategists and politicians. But the answer he received is probably frustrating: American exceptionalism, the United States will win. Ma Kaishuo mentioned in the book that the biggest failure of the Soviet Union was that it had never been strategically envisaged that the Soviet Union would fail. The United States today is in a similar situation, and it is even more “obsessed.” Ma Kaishuo summarizes the strategic logic of the United States‘ victory in five points: First, the United States must win in geopolitical competition with China, just as it once defeated Germany, Japan, and the Soviet Union; second, China’s political and economic system is unsustainable. , Inevitably collapse, because communism will inevitably fail; third, the United States has a rich resource system and does not need to make major adjustments in competition; fourth, the United States has an excellent constitution and rule of law, and has established a basically just and well-ordered society; Fifth, Sino-US decisive battle, most countries in the world will choose to cooperate with the United States. The author believes that the “American triumph theory” and its strategic superstitions supported by these five points not only have a cross-party and social consensus in the United States, but also captured countless Chinese intellectuals and even technocrats. However, this strategic framework based on “superstition” is too old, forming a powerful barrier to American ideology and political correctness, and severely hijacked and frustrated the window of opportunity for American strategic reflection and transformation. The loyalty that the United States is accustomed to receiving from all over the world has further “comforted” the strategic mentality of the United States to win, leading to the rigidity, dullness, involution, and even the “giant baby” of the American strategic mind. Ma Kaishuo is here mercilessly, as a “American strategic friend” to solve the above five myths one by one (Chinese translation, pages 146-149). The author thinks this is the most valuable part of Ma Kaishuo’s book. Since the Sino-U.S. conflict, many people have worried that China will be “killed”, thinking that China’s nationalist revival, war wolf diplomacy, and global governance plan will repeat the historical mistakes of Germany, Japan, and the Soviet Union. However, Ma Kaishuo has repeatedly stated in the book. It gives a frank analysis and defense from the perspective of Chinese traditional culture and Chinese political system resilience, introspection and error correction mechanism. On the contrary, Ma Kaishuo is very worried that the United States will be “touted and killed”, and that the United States will win the talks and the “public knowers of the United States” of various countries. Compared with Chinese culture and strategic self-control, American culture and strategy are seriously lacking in moderation elements and traditions, and blindly touting American exceptionalism and triumphism can only lead to the “involution” of American strategy and serious internal and external strategic consumption. The empire’s skeleton is declining and the national welfare is left unattended. Can American strategists and politicians, including “We the People” who influence the destiny of the United States under the democratic system, understand Ma Kaishuo’s “unearthly” critical voice?
As a result, Ma Kaishuo fell into a dilemma: different from the popular, he spoke to the leaders of China and the United States and the people of the two countries at the same time, but his overall analysis did not carry obvious Western values, but based on the analysis and philosophy of pure strategic interests between the East and the West. Will the analysis be accepted by any party? Although his many analyses are very profound and constructive, they are difficult to be compatible with the “political correctness” of the United States, or even if some American strategists and politicians agree with his analysis, they may not dare to tell the truth and dare to be truly cruel. Reality and trends. Comparatively speaking, Chinese leaders and their citizens in a period of strategic upswing are more likely to listen to and learn from Ma Kaishuo’s relatively objective and neutral analysis. Ma Kaishuo’s personal experience, vision of knowledge and sense of moral mission have resulted in his relative detachment and objective analysis advantages. For this reason, his book is of great strategic value, and it is a “clear stream” in the complex game and fierce struggle atmosphere of Sino-US relations.
The above is the idea, value and uniqueness of Ma Kaishuo’s book. As a senior diplomat and international politician, his thoughts and suggestions have the unique value of “two-sided mediation”. They are the “background sound” outside of Sino-US bilateral dialogues and struggles, and are highly representative of the “third-party” interest circle. The voice of sex. When China seeks a stable path to peaceful rise between national rejuvenation and a community with a shared future for mankind, when the United States re-divides the world with a new “strategic competition”-style cold war under the strategic panic of the United States, what Ma Kaishuo calls for is the deep-seated relationship between China and the United States. Mutual understanding and institutional innovation, and the introduction of third-party interests and human interests outside China and the United States as the normative value basis to judge the moral and political legitimacy of their respective strategic choices. Under this background and methodological framework, the book also extensively discusses the relationship between the “Belt and Road” and the “Indo-Pacific Strategy”, the autonomy of China’s democratic road, the issue of American virtue assumptions, the issue of China’s expansion, and the respective strategies of China and the United States. Mistakes and strategic adjustment issues. On the whole, the book has initially constructed a topical framework and value framework for analyzing Sino-US relations based on the latest historical time scale in the 2020s. It is relatively objective and fair. It has both critical and constructive opinions on China and the United States, and calls for “third parties”. Self-consciousness and action. The author believes that the successive launch of the Chinese and English editions of the book, in this trough of strategic mutual trust between China and the United States, the haze of the new cold war, the edge of strategic competition, and the raging abyss of the epidemic, there are ideas that penetrate historical misunderstandings and civilizational conflicts. Shine and practical guide meaning. Of course, this is the starting point for strategic thinking about Sino-US relations in the 21st century and the new global order based on it. Ma Kaishuo’s issues and framework require repeated arguments, filling, construction, and formalization by himself and countless latecomers.
(Note: The author is an associate professor at Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics/School of Law, a resident researcher at a high-end think tank of the Central Institute of Socialism, and a doctor of law. The review list is[Singapore]Ma Kaishuo: “China’s Choice: Sino-US Game and Strategic Choice”, translated by Global Think Tank, CITIC Publishing Group September 2021 edition)