The forecaster Robert-Luciani is already thinking about post-summer: “There could be storms of unprecedented violence”
BELLUNO. Sigh of relief for Ferragosto: mostly sunny weather, if anything, some clouds in the afternoon. These are the forecasts of the Arpav Weather Center in Arabba.
After so many days of storms, finally stability. But how long will it last? And, in any case, be careful: the weather invites you to go out, to climb to the high mountains, but there is one more reason to inquire about the safety of the trails.
Thierry Robert-Luciani, one of Arabba’s forecasters, taking advantage of a few days off is jumping from one path to another and finds several impassable ones, because they were seriously damaged by the recent bad weather, which has exacerbated Vaia’s wounds not yet mended.
But let’s go in order. The latest Arpav bulletin takes into account the mostly clear sky for today 11 August, with light cloud cover in the Alpine and Pre-Alpine areas. Tomorrow 12, generally stable. On Friday 13th, however, slightly cloudy in the morning and more overcast in the afternoon. Saturday 14 some cloud cover in the central hours of the day followed by possible showers. Sunday 15 still stable.
«So», says Robert-Luciani, «a reassuring August 15th. Today will be a beautiful summer day, despite some cloudiness. Temperatures will still be high, with freezing above 4,000 meters ».
And tomorrow? “It will be another great day. On Friday, however, we will have a small collapse at high altitude and with this great heat there will probably be some storms ». What can we expect for Saturday? “The high pressure seems to resume.” And Ferragosto? “I imagine a beautiful day.”
In terms of temperature – according to Luciani – these days we will remain above the seasonal averages. And what can be said for after August 15th? “I refuse to make any predictions,” Luciani replies. “It’s impossible because the models change and what you read on mobile apps is fake weather. This is because our potential, in terms of technology and studies, to date cannot go beyond five days of forecast in the best cases ».
Luciani, going along paths in recent days, unfortunately found that «many of Vaia’s wounds have not been reabsorbed and, indeed, in some cases the wounds have reopened after the recent bad weather. Storm rains have deadly effects and the rest of the damage is done by the drains. There are some paths still interrupted by the fallen trees with Vaia and this is very serious. Also visible are other very fragile plants, shaken three years ago by gusts of wind and which could fall with an upcoming emergency ».
«If the high mountains remain in this state», emphasizes Robert-Luciani, «the next rain we will all be crying. I hope that in the next few years nature will leave us alone but I have some doubts about this ».
“I think about the next few months,” continues the meteorologist. «After so much heat, in fact, we will have the first flows of cold air from the Atlantic. Already today we have tremors at the level of the Gulf Stream and this does not bode well. We have the particularly hot Mediterranean basin, with awaters that reach the temperature of 28-29 degrees and at the same time the North Atlantic, in the North of France, with waters that have a temperature of 13-14 degrees. When we have very significant thermal contrasts in the Alps, storms of unprecedented violence will arrive, with short but very intense rains and hailstorms as has not happened for years. Therefore », Luciani concludes,« we are careful and try to take care of the territory ».
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