Write: Luis Allen.
The divided opposition laid out the red carpet for the overwhelming triumph of the ANR on Sunday, April 30, highlighting throughout the electoral process the little contribution of the “independents” to the cause of political change, as was the case of the Alto Paraná leader Miguel Prieto, mayor of Ciudad del Este, thus favoring the chance of the colorados who confirmed the continuism of the hand of Horacio Cartes, who thus strengthens his status as “Patron” of factual and legal power, despite the denunciations of the United States in his against.
Late are the complaints such as the denunciation of a possible massive electoral fraud, which is now used by the followers of Paraguayo Cubas to ignore the results of the TREP, which is the rapid transmission of preliminary results pending the final judgment of the electoral records.
The untimely reaction of the “payistas” against the verdict of the Electoral Tribunal is striking, which was even accepted by the best positioned opposition candidate Efraín Alegre of the National Concertation in view of his meager numbers against the ANR, after acknowledging his defeat on the night of the same Sunday almost simultaneously with the celebrations in the house of the colorados by the new president-elect Santiago Peña.
Because this result, which was already endorsed even by the international community, could be seen coming from the moment that the opposition failed to unite behind a single candidate and a common program last year, wasting the historic opportunity to oust the the ANR, and especially HC, who was the big winner on election day.
The National Coalition, despite Alegre’s acknowledgment of defeat, requested the Electoral Justice to verify 10 percent of the polling stations in each polling place, randomly taking the ballot papers stored in envelope No. 4 to charge of the electoral courts, as well as an international audit of the computer software used in the voting machines.
All this to give greater transparency to the judging of the electoral acts, but the main reason would be to reduce the tension caused by the claim of the “payismo”, which has become the third political force, scratching the second place of liberalism and putting at risk in the future even to the first place in Colorado, if Payo carries out a leadership that will later lead him to successful political negotiations in Congress, where his wife Yolanda Paredes was elected to the Senate along with four other members of the National Crusade.
The results showed, on the other hand, that a united opposition would easily defeat the ANR, since adding the votes of Alegre and Cubas would exceed 1,500,000 votes, which is the majority needed to win with 51 percent of the total number of votes. voters who massively attended the historic democratic day.
The votes for Santi Peña were 1,292,079, some 90,000 more than the 2018 vote for Marito Abdo, with 43 percent of the votes, almost equal to the percentage reached in second place, five years ago, by the opposition alliance led also that time for Alegre, who now had a resounding flight of voters of the order of 300,000 votes, which turned out to be fatal, remaining practically only with his “hard” liberal vote and reaching no more than 28 percent of the total (830,842 votes ) with Payo Cubas close on his heels with 23 percent (692,663 votes)
No “independent” contribution
Efraín Alegre’s strategy with the Concertación was of course to capture the independent and youth vote, but strikingly, this did not happen, according to the results of Sunday the 30th. With the accompaniment of Soledad Núñez and the promise of a decisive contribution in votes From the Yo Creo movement in Alto Paraná, led by the mayor of Ciudad del Este, Miguel Prieto, it was expected that voters dissatisfied with the system, independents and youth, would form a sweeping anti-ANR tide. However, this did not happen.
The person who made a very good choice was instead Payo Cubas, which leads one to think that by not joining the Concertación, the controversial lawyer and former national senator rather favored the chance of Colorado and Santi Peña, that is, of his mentor HC, by divide the opposition votes at first sight, since neither Euclides Acevedo nor José Luis Chilavert had the slightest popular support as Cubas did widely.
The big problem for the opposition was the impossibility of overcoming personalities to build a serious alternative and thus defeat the 70-year-old Colorado hegemony, including the 4-year luguista hiatus, which could build another State model different from the current one linked to prebendaryism. , the concentration of wealth and that it be more progressive, aimed at satisfying the desire for a better standard of living for the vast majority of the poor and marginal population of the Republic.
The Colorados were also left with nothing more than their “hard” vote, without the renewing contribution of the youth, which indicates that the great majority of the change turned towards Payo Cubas, who thus managed to unite the vote dissatisfied with the system and the vote punishment from the same republicans.
Miguel Prieto tried to explain the opposition’s failure by somehow blaming Efraín Alegre for not accepting Payo Cubas’ conditions, including going to a poll to define the head of the presidential duo, but this shows once again that privileging the The “ego” of the leadership resulted in a disastrous bet that does not match the great responsibility of putting the country first.
But it also appeared quite clearly that the independent, young electorate and the one inclined towards the figure of Cubas, did not take into account that “the only solution” offered by the payismo of the National Crusade, was to elevate the figure of Payo until reaching a greater relevance. when it comes to negotiating spaces of power in the next Congress, in order to achieve the governability that Santi Peña will urgently need, taking into account the foreseeable red division between Chartism and Abdism now possibly led by senator-elect Luis Pettengill. This, despite the fact that the ANR would have its own majority in both the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies.
Thus, the true “only solution” of a government concertation program that really incorporates the vast majority of the population to the benefits of inclusive economic and social growth was left for a future opportunity, as was the government proposal outlined by the Concertación team. of Efraín, as a result of the demanding work of preparing the government plan, with the contribution of almost 200 top-level experts in all economic, social, cultural, and political areas.
The government proposal was presented a few days before the elections, perhaps another mistake by the opposition leadership for not submitting to the voters well in advance, several months before, a program that could tend to a solution to the numerous problems of the daily life of Paraguayans, ranging from low income to poor public transportation, which are all legacies of Colorado governments little inclined to improve the quality of life of the majority population, which is used only as clientele to win elections, unfortunately.
the next task
After the failure of the opposition in the general elections, the best thing that can be proposed in this instance is to accept the results and begin a laborious process of democratic and social consolidation, because the opponents in both houses of Parliament, as well as in the departmental boards, however, can have a leading role in agreeing with the central government and with the departmental governments on action plans that promote national development.
This is the case of Miguel Prieto’s Yo Creo Movement, which, for example, will have relevance in the Alto Paraná council, where the Cartist Colorado governor-elect César “Landy” Torres will not have his own majority, having to negotiate with the opposition for the approval of his plans. and accountability.
It is not a secret that Prieto aspires to become a national figure, who could well have a lot of influence for the formation of the new opposition front for the next electoral fairs.
But in view of recent experience, it stands out that the first condition for defeating the ANR is to avoid personalism from now on and go for the formation of a united front that puts the country first and the consolidation of economic and social democracy whose primary mission is the inclusion of citizens in a process of harmonious and sustainable development over time.
The pressure of the demonstrations and closure of routes of the peasantry, only to blame the supposed fraud as the explanation of the Colorado triumph, without assuming the failures in the process of opposition unity and the failures in the support of the “independents” such as those of Prieto , is not the appropriate solution to the problem of social exclusion.
The great task ahead is the search for the true solution, such as overcoming personalities and going towards a common program that is well explained to the electorate to get the country out of the quagmire in which it finds itself.
The anti-mafia Efrainista discourse, against corruption and impunity, basically directed against the Patrón HC, has been necessary to insist on the strengthening of the institutions, mainly the Prosecutor’s Office and the Judiciary, but what the citizens are demanding is also the urgency to overcome the numbers of poverty, lack of jobs, informality and little access to the benefits of economic progress.
Therein lies the key to an opposition program that brings together all the anti-system clamor embodied by Payo Cubas and to which Miguel Prieto may also join, but overcoming personal considerations, in order to build a new single opposition bloc that can triumph in the next elections. .
For the moment, all that remains is to calm the protesters’ nerves, with a self-criticism that incorporates the promise of building a different process in the opposition, one that is participatory and that closely monitors the red government administration that is beginning, in such a way as to also accompany the possibility that Santi Peña will become detached from the tether of remaining subject to the interests of the Patron, that is, his mentor Horacio Cartes.