Original title: National Financial Work Conference: In 2022, the policy will be put forward to optimize income distribution and promote consumption recovery
On December 27, a national financial work video conference was held in Beijing to summarize the financial work in 2021 and study and deploy the financial work in 2022. The Minister of Finance Liu Kun made a work report.
The meeting emphasized that the financial department must accurately grasp the requirements of stability and seek progress, implement proactive fiscal policies, and actively introduce policies that are conducive to economic stability, and policy efforts should be appropriately advanced. At the same time, strengthen the coordination and linkage of fiscal policy, currency, employment and other policies, and focus on the organic combination of cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical regulation to improve the overall effectiveness of the policy.
The meeting demanded that in 2022, macro policies must be stable and effective, micro policies must continue to stimulate the vitality of market entities, structural policies must focus on smoothing the national economic cycle, scientific and technological policies must be firmly implemented, reform and opening policies must activate development momentum, and regional policies must be strengthened. The balance and coordination of development and social policies must fulfil the requirements of securing the bottom line of people’s livelihood, give full play to the role of fiscal functions, find out the points of policy force, and strengthen policy coordination.
The policy positioning of “sound and effective” means that the policy will remain stable and continue without flooding. An expert interviewed by a reporter from 21st Century Business Herald stated that the deficit rate in 2022 is expected to be slightly higher than 3% (the deficit rate in 2021 is 3.2%), and the scale of special debt is not expected to be lower than this year’s 3.65 trillion yuan. .
Fiscal revenues and expenditures are “tightly balanced”, with greater efforts to reduce taxes and fees
The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that the proactive fiscal policy in 2022 should improve efficiency and pay more attention to precision and sustainability.
The National Financial Work Conference made more specific arrangements for this, clarifying six aspects to be grasped in 2022. The first is to implement greater tax cuts and fee reductions to enhance the vitality of market players. The second is to maintain appropriate spending intensity and improve spending accuracy. The third is to rationally arrange special bonds for local governments to ensure the construction of key projects. The fourth is to increase transfer payments from the central government to local governments to secure the bottom line of the “three guarantees” at the grassroots level. Fifth, insist on living tightly for the party and government organs and run all undertakings frugally. The sixth is to strictly enforce financial discipline and rectify financial order.
In the first three quarters of this year, my country’s GDP grew by 9.8% year-on-year (two-year average growth rate of 5.2%), and it is expected to achieve a growth of about 8% for the whole year. On the basis of economic recovery growth, combined with factors such as high commodity operation and better overall corporate profits, the national fiscal revenue has increased at a higher rate. In the first November, the national general public budget revenue increased by 12.8% year-on-year. However, in recent years, my country has increased its efforts to reduce taxes and fees. Under the influence of the epidemic, policy efforts are needed. Compared with the same period in 2019, fiscal revenue only increased by 6.9% in the first November of this year.
In addition, it should be pointed out that in November, the national general public budget revenue fell 11.2% year-on-year. This was not only related to the decline in the growth rate of some economic indicators in November, but also to alleviate the financial difficulties and operating pressures of enterprises. The tax reduction of small, medium and micro enterprises in the industry is related to the reduction in revenue.
Looking forward to 2022, fiscal revenue is expected to continue its recovery growth, but it is also facing a complex and severe situation.
Judging from the research and judgment of some institutions, my country’s economy is expected to achieve 5%-5.5% growth in 2022. Taking into account further tax cuts and fee reductions, the growth rate of fiscal revenue may be slightly lower than the economic growth rate. For example, the CMF Forum report of Renmin University of China predicts that my country’s economy will grow by 5.5% year-on-year in 2022, and the national general public budget revenue growth rate may be 4.1%.
“In 2022, my country’s exports may undergo structural adjustments, and the growth rate of exports of epidemic prevention materials and basic daily necessities may decline. The list sanctions imposed by the United States on Chinese companies will face many external uncertainties. However, my country’s macroeconomic policies The effect may be further released next year, and fiscal revenue is expected to continue its recovery growth next year. The deficit rate in 2022 may be around 3%, slightly higher than 3%, and the scale of special debt should not be lower than this year’s level.” Institute researcher Wang Zecai told reporters from 21st Century Business Herald.
Yang Zhiyong, deputy dean of the Institute of Financial Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told a reporter from 21st Century Business Herald that the deficit rate and special debt scale in 2022 are expected to be similar to this year. Tax cuts and fee reductions will focus on areas such as safeguarding market entities, supporting manufacturing development, and preventing risks. Next year’s economic work requirements will be stable, targeting at the squeeze of profits of downstream small, medium and micro enterprises due to the high operation of bulk commodities, as well as exports affected by the international situation. Export-oriented enterprises, etc., are the focus of the policy to protect market entities.
Chen Wei, director of the Taxation Division of the Shandong Provincial Department of Finance, told reporters that the continuous implementation of institutional tax and fee reductions in recent years has caused great pressure on fiscal revenues and expenditures, especially the arduous task of “three guarantees” for grassroots finance. With the implementation of the tax reduction and fee reduction policy, the level of corporate tax burden has fallen sharply, and the economy has gradually stabilized and recovered. In the future, tax reduction and fee reduction will pay more attention to precision. It is expected that the tax and fee reduction policies will focus on supporting technological innovation, incentivizing enterprises to increase investment in R&D, and solving technical problems of “stuck necks”; The ability of micro-enterprises to resist risks has stabilized the market players.
Under the condition of tight fiscal balance, the government is living too tightly, and it becomes necessary to spend money on the blade. Wang Zecai pointed out that whether it is infrastructure projects or public service expenditures, fiscal expenditures must adhere to the goal, performance, and cost orientation, input and output must be considered, and the efficiency of capital use must be improved.
Smooth the national economic cycle: Stabilize investment and promote consumption
The meeting requested that in 2022, the macro policy must be stable and effective, the micro policy must continue to stimulate the vitality of market entities, and the structural policy must focus on smoothing the national economic cycle, etc., play a good role in the fiscal function, identify the point of policy force, and strengthen policy coordination. .
Micro-policies must continue to stimulate the vitality of market entities. Strictly implement the various tax and fee reduction policies promulgated by the state to ensure that the dividends of the tax and fee reduction policies are implemented. Strengthen relief assistance for small, medium and micro enterprises, implement the award and subsidy policy for inclusive financial development demonstration zones, continue to implement financing guarantees for small and micro enterprises, and reduce fees and subsidies, and newly support a group of national-level specialized and new “little giant” enterprises. Encourage local governments to arrange relief funds for SMEs. Efforts will be made to support the stabilization and expansion of employment.
Structural policies must focus on smoothing the national economic cycle. Fully tap the potential of domestic demand and give play to the role of fiscal stabilization and investment in promoting consumption. Properly manage and use special bond funds to stimulate effective investment. Properly carry out infrastructure investment in advance, and give full play to the guiding and leading role of government investment. Optimize the income distribution structure and promote the continuous recovery of consumption.
In mid-December, the Ministry of Finance has issued a quota of 1.46 trillion yuan in new special debt for 2022 in advance to localities, urging localities to put it into use in the first quarter to form a physical workload. In addition, due to my country’s economic growth in the first half of the year, the issuance of special bonds was accelerated in the third quarter this year, and a large part of it will be used at the end of this year and early next year, which will have a superimposing effect with the special bonds to be issued next year.
Although there are factors such as slow issuance progress and delayed policy effects, this year’s special bonds have no obvious investment stimulus effect. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October, the two-year average growth rate of infrastructure investment was 0.3%.
The relevant person in charge of the Shaanxi Provincial Department of Finance told the 21st Century Business Herald that the pace of the issuance of special bonds this year is “slow in the beginning and fast in the end”. From the perspective of investment, the number of new projects that can achieve a balance of income, such as public hospitals, water, electricity and heat, vocational education, and sewage and garbage treatment, has decreased. In addition, there are relatively few projects that meet the requirements of “specialized bonds + market-based financing”, which to a certain extent also affects the leveraging effect of special bonds on other funds. Although the number of project reserves and capital requirements in 2022 have declined compared with 2021, the projects are still sufficient.
The person in charge also introduced that in actual work, they will select the best projects, according to the maturity of the project and the construction status, rationally arrange the issuance batches, start the first issuance, and ensure that the physical workload is formed as soon as possible after the bond funds are in place.
The National Financial Work Conference also pointed out that risk prevention and control should be strengthened and the bottom line that systemic risks should not occur should be firmly held. Continue to prevent and resolve hidden debt risks of local governments, take serious accountability for the unrealistic debts and increase hidden debts, and improve the long-term mechanism to prevent and resolve hidden debt risks.
Yang Zhiyong said that the so-called appropriate advancement of infrastructure investment means that in addition to meeting current needs, whether it is in the transportation field or new infrastructure projects, it must also appropriately consider the needs of the next three to five years. The reason for emphasizing “moderateness” is to take into account financial affordability. The market is concerned about the poor return of special bonds. In the future, when reserving projects, the feasibility studies of the projects must be more realistic, so as to better reduce risks.
Song Qichao, head of the Budget Department of the Ministry of Finance, said that the special debt is clearly used for profitable public welfare projects, and the balance of financing income is the focus of project review. If the fund income corresponding to the special bond is not enough to repay the principal and interest due to changes in the internal and external environment, it will be dynamically adjusted in time, and the special income will be transferred from the relevant public welfare project unit to make up, so as to ensure that the bond repays the principal and interest. , To prevent the repayment risk of special bonds.
In response to the current sluggish consumption situation, the fiscal policy in 2022 will also focus on optimizing the income distribution structure and promoting the continuous recovery of consumption.
Xu Xianchun, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University and former deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that in the first three quarters, the national average per capita consumption expenditure increased by 5.7% in nominal terms and 3.7% in real terms, which was 2.6 and 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period in 2019. Consumer demand It has not returned to the level before the epidemic. At the same time, the national general public budget expenditures in the first three quarters increased by 2.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the first half of the year. On the whole, the growth rate of government consumption expenditure was relatively low. Under the combined effect of two factors, consumer demand has not returned to the level before the epidemic.
Wang Zecai said that the central government emphasizes the need to promote common prosperity and build an olive-shaped society. At present, although there are 400 million middle-income groups in my country, at the same time there are still 600 million people with a monthly income of about 1,000 yuan. It is necessary to continue to increase the income of low-income groups and expand the middle-income groups. There are still many shortcomings in the fields of medical care, education, and elderly care, and fiscal policies need to be strengthened to supplement basic public services.
Li Jianwei, director of the Social Development Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that redistribution is the key to promoting fair income distribution, which is embodied in three aspects: taxation, social security, and transfer payments. In the future, we should continue to optimize the tax system structure, gradually increase the proportion of direct taxes, improve the full coverage, basic, multi-level, and sustainable social security system, enhance the accuracy of transfer payments, and improve the efficiency of fund use.
It is worth noting that the National Financial Work Conference mentioned in the summary of the work in 2021 that we should make preparations for the real estate tax pilot. At the end of October this year, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress deliberated and approved the decision to authorize the State Council to carry out pilot projects for real estate tax reform in some regions. At that time, the relevant persons in charge of the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation stated that they would draft the real estate tax pilot measures (draft) in accordance with the authorization of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, and make preparations for the pilot in accordance with the procedures.
Real estate tax is a typical direct tax. The levy of real estate tax on residential houses is conducive to regulating income distribution. However, in 2022, my country’s economic stability will take the lead, and the relevant central authorities have also released a signal of cautiously introducing a contraction policy. It remains to be seen whether the real estate tax pilot will be implemented in 2022.
(Author: Zhou Xiaoxiao Editor: Li Bo)
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