Two months after the fall of the dragons government, the legislature comes to an end. On Sunday the call to the polls will close the election campaign and tell us how the next parliament will be composed. A particular case for Italy, in which there has never been a vote in the autumn for politics, but above all after two months of rallies and clashes which, however, have not really been able to offer twists.
Comparing programs: this is why the feeling between young people and parties is almost nil
Those on Sunday will be the second elections in which we will vote with the Rosato electoral law (the so-called Rosatellum). It will also be the first time that the members of parliament will be chosen after the 2020 reform wanted by the Lega and the 5 Star Movement. The latter has amended articles 56, 57 and 59 of the Constitution, reducing the number of deputies in the Chamber from 630 to 400 (with those reserved for the foreign constituency rising from 12 to 8) and of the Senate from 315 to 200 (from 6 to 4 for the foreign constituency).
To enter Parliament, parties must exceed the minimum threshold of 3% of the votes. A second macro-threshold of 10% is added to the first macro-threshold for coalitions, but with some peculiarities: the first is that seats can only be obtained if at least one of the lists that make up the coalition itself has exceeded 3%.
The new members of parliament will remain in office (barring unforeseen circumstances) for the next five years. Early elections are far from being an exception: in many cases, given the impossibility of creating a majority capable of supporting a government, the presidents of the Republic were forced to dissolve the Chambers and call new elections.
The condition of the parties
Given the electoral silence, the latest official polls date back to two weeks ago, but the balance of power does not seem to have changed: Fratelli d’Italia remains firmly in the lead as in the entire electoral campaign, followed by the Democratic Party, followed practically on an equal footing by the Movimento 5 Stelle and the Lega (allied with Fratelli D’Italia together with Forza Italia).
Looking at the coalitions, the picture becomes even more marked: the center-right is given around 45%, the center-left stops at around 30% and the Third Pole of Action and Italia Viva is given at 6.4%.
At the close of the polls, at 11 pm on Sunday 25 September, the first exit polls will be published, followed by the projections published by the Ministry of the Interior and based on the first real results deriving from the counting of the ballots in the polls. Subsequently, the installation of the new members of Parliament will take place and the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella will have to appoint a person (usually the leader of the party that has obtained the most votes, but it is not mandatory) to form a new government.
The Prime Minister in charge will therefore have to evaluate the possibility of obtaining the support of a parliamentary majority and will return to the Quirinale to dissolve the reserve: in a positive sense, if he is able to form a government, in a negative sense, if not has obtained the approval of a sufficient number of deputies and senators. In the first case, the list of ministers will be presented and the new government sworn in, which will then present itself in parliament to present its program and ask for its trust. In the second case, the President of the Republic can appoint another person or assign an exploratory mandate.
How to vote
All citizens who have completed eighteen years of age will have the right to cast their vote, for the first time also for the Senate (where previously they needed at least 25 years). 37% of the seats (147 in the Chamber and 74 in the Senate) will be assigned with the majority system. 61% of the seats (245 and 122 respectively) are divided proportionally between the coalitions and the individual lists that have exceeded the envisaged national thresholds. The remaining 2% (8 deputies and 4 senators) is destined for the vote of Italians residing abroad and is assigned with a proportional system. Together with their identity document, each voter must present themselves at the polling stations in possession of their electoral card.
For citizens residing abroad – about 5 and a half million people – registration in the appropriate registry (Aire) is required: only in this way can consulates be able to send them the ballot papers by post. On the other hand, those who are in another Italian municipality than their residence – starting with non-resident students – are forced to return home to be able to vote. The problem, however, becomes central: it is estimated that there are 4.9 million out of office in Italy, or about 10% of the total number of voters. Of these, 1.9 million live more than 2 hours by car from the Municipality of residence and going to vote, as well as taking time, risks becoming a costly journey despite the discounts on means of transport. This goes in contrast, in addition to the right to vote, also to the enlargement of the voters for the Senate sanctioned by the 2020 reform, since the majority of out-of-school students are found in the 18-25 age group.
The ballot paper
All voters must cast their vote on a single ballot box, on which the name of the candidate in the single-member constituency, the mark of the linked list or, in the case of a coalition, the marks of all the linked lists, with the names next to it. of candidates in the plurinominal college (from two to four). A cross on the symbol of the chosen party or coalition will therefore suffice to cast one’s vote.