Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991, Russia has waged wars against its neighbors almost continuously, or at least provoked them. Moscow launched the first war just over two months after the collapse of the Soviet Empire: at the beginning of March 1992 in the small Republic of Moldova, located between Ukraine and northeast Romania. The majority of Romanian-speaking Moldovans live there; most of the country belonged to the Romanian Principality of Moldavia until its annexation during the Tsarist era and later again under Stalin.
In a part of Moldova, the so-called Transnistria, a strip of land on the left bank of the Dniester River, separatists loyal to Moscow had already declared an unrecognized republic in 1990 under the pretext of protecting Russians and the Russian language. The extremely bloody fighting in the spring of 1992 ended after a few months, but Russian troops have been in Transnistria ever since – even though the Kremlin had already committed to withdrawing them in an agreement a quarter of a century ago.
The Dniester River, which separates the separatist region of Transnistria from the Republic of MoldovaImage: Fedja Grulovic/REUTERS
On the outside, Transnistria resembles a gigantic Soviet open-air museum – with Lenin monuments, red flags and hammer-and-sickle symbols. In fact, you have to think of the strip of land as a kind of huge company premises and weapons depot for a small group of former KGB officers who are currently also working for the Russian military intelligence service GRU. They run money laundering and smuggling operations with their corporate conglomerate Sheriff and control virtually all economic activity in the area.
“President” of Transnistria speaks of “genocide”
Whenever business is threatened, the powerless Parliament, the Supreme Soviet of Transnistria, or other forums come together and ask Moscow for help, protection, or admission into the Russian Federation. This means that the danger of a hot war arises again and again in an otherwise frozen conflict.
The regional capital Tiraspol in the breakaway region of TransnistriaImage: Goran Stanzl/Pixsell/imago images
This is also the case this time: On Wednesday (February 28, 2024), in Tiraspol, the regional capital of Transnistria, a “Congress of Deputies at all levels” asked Russia in a resolution for protection from the “increasing pressure” and the “Economic War of Moldova”. The “President” of Transnistria, Wadim Krasnoselski, former security officer at Sheriff, accused the authorities in Chisinau of committing a “genocide” against the residents of Transnistria.
More control over Transnistria
The explosiveness of the protective appeal to Russia was due, among other things, to its timing – the meeting in Tiraspol took place one day before Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech to the nation. There had been widespread speculation as to whether Putin would use the appeal as a pretext to announce some form of military intervention in Moldova or the annexation of the republic. But Putin did not even nominally mention the Republic of Moldova in his speech on Thursday (February 29, 2024).
Moldovan politicians and media had already spoken in advance of a “deceptive maneuver” and a “propaganda bluff” by Transnistria, which should not be taken seriously. The background: Since January 1, 2024, companies from Transnistria have had to pay customs duties and fees when they import goods into the republic’s regular territory. It is part of a catalog of measures with which the country’s leadership in Chisinau is trying to regain more control over Transnistria.
Ukrainian border with Transnistria sealed
For the past three decades, Transnistria, an area between Ukraine and regular Moldovan territory on the right bank of the Dniester, has been an uncontrolled hub for illegal trafficking, smuggling and money laundering. The pro-Western President Maia Sandu, who previously made a name for herself as a civil rights and anti-corruption activist, has been trying to end illegal economic practices with Transnistria since taking office at the end of 2020.
Paradoxically, the Russian war against Ukraine helped it in this endeavor, as the Ukrainian authorities sealed the border to Transnistria since the beginning of the war to prevent acts of sabotage or attacks by Russian soldiers on the port city of Odessa, just 70 kilometers away, and the surrounding region. As a result, Transnistria has largely lost its role as a hub for smuggling and money laundering.
“Signs of collapse”
Oleg Serebrian, Moldova’s deputy prime minister and minister for the reintegration of Transnistria, said after Putin’s speech optimistically that Russia was controlling the separatist region less and less and that there were “several centers of power in Tiraspol and thus signs of weakness and collapse.” He described the appeal to Russia to protect Transnistria as an “operation to cover up the problems of the separatist regime.”
The Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Reintegration, Oleg Serebrian (left), and the Ukrainian ambassador for Transnistria, Paun Rohovei, give a press conference on January 29, 2024Image: Elena Covalenco/DW
“Things are going badly economically and socially in Transnistria,” said Serebrian, “and the people there need an explanation. It is that the mother of all evil is Chisinau and the new tariffs and that is why things are going wrong in the region. But in reality, things have been going badly in Transnistria for a long time.”
Propaganda and disinformation
In fact, in the absence of direct access to Moldova, Russia currently has virtually no opportunity to attack the country. However, Moscow has around 1,500 to 2,000 soldiers in the country. There are also the Transnistrian armed forces. Taken together, they are probably far superior to the small and very poorly equipped Moldovan army with only around 5,000 soldiers. In addition, in the north of Transnistria near the village of Cobasna there is one of the largest weapons depots in Europe with over 20,000 tons of weapons and ammunition from old Soviet stocks. If Russia succeeds in penetrating the Odessa region, it could be the start of an invasion of Moldova.
Politically speaking, Moldova is as lost to Russia as Ukraine. The EU decided to hold membership negotiations with the Republic of Moldova in December. A majority of people in the country are pro-European, many have citizenship in neighboring Romania and therefore EU passports, and hundreds of thousands of Moldovans work in EU countries.
Moscow’s hybrid war against the country shows that Russia is not giving up its claim to the Republic of Moldova and would probably attack it under the right circumstances: Pro-Russian parties, financed among others by the pro-Russian oligarch Ilan Sor, who fled to Israel, are conducting bitter campaigns against it President Maia Sandu and the pro-Western government of Prime Minister Dorin Recean. Pro-Russian propaganda and disinformation are also massively present on social media. The presidential election and a referendum on EU accession are scheduled for autumn 2024. “In the run-up to these elections, we are already seeing attempts to destabilize the situation in our country,” Moldovan Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoi recently warned.