Scholar: Accidents in Shanghai are not trivial events and are often the starting point of China’s political explosion
Vice Premier Sun Chunlan of the Communist Party of China went to Shanghai on April 2 to supervise the epidemic prevention work, and conveyed Xi Jinping’s tough order “dynamic clearing” without wavering, and Shanghai immediately closed the city. However, the sudden closure of the metropolis of 25 million people led to chaos. The supply of supplies was not guaranteed, the medical system collapsed, the patients were not treated in time, and a large number of citizens were quarantined in a centralized manner.
The closure of Shanghai basically repeated the Wuhan model of the year. The authorities mobilized personnel from various provinces, the army, and the armed police to station in Shanghai. According to Radio Free Asia, recently, about 100,000 armed police and medical staff from all over China arrived in Shanghai to help prevent and control social incidents while preventing the epidemic.
Ms. Feng, a resident living near the airport, said that there were constant sounds of large planes taking off and landing on the evening of the 3rd, and a large number of armed police arrived in Shanghai and put them on alert. Ms. Feng said: “The armed police came on March 28 and 29, and a large number of armed police came in. Before that, they came in quietly, but because Vice Premier Sun Chunlan came, they came in openly. Last night, the residents near the airport stayed overnight. I haven’t slept, and they all say that the rumbling military transport is very noisy. In addition, helicopters have to be flown in and over, and it was the same last night.”
Zhang Jin, a scholar from Puxi in Shanghai, said that there are armed police officers with guns at the gate of the community where he lives to prevent residents from climbing over the wall or going out at will. Zhang Jin said: “A special police officer with a gun is stationed at the gate of a community. I am afraid that something will happen in Shanghai, so I have to take care of it now. An accident (in Shanghai) is not a trivial matter. Now it is like a broken lantern. It is glued here and broken there.”
The CCP Military Daily confirmed the above-mentioned news. The People’s Liberation Army Daily reported on the 3rd that the military had recruited more than 2,000 medical personnel to support Shanghai’s epidemic prevention. The medical forces selected this time come from 7 medical units belonging to the Army, Navy and Joint Logistics Support Force.
Zhang Jin revealed that, in fact, it has been more than a month since a new round of the epidemic broke out in Shanghai. Infected people had already appeared during the “two sessions”, but officials concealed the report, and the Omicron strain of the CCP virus has spread rapidly.
Zhang Jin said that Shanghai is often a place of initialization at the flashpoint of all politics in China. The failure of this epidemic prevention measure may induce changes in other aspects.
Analysis of the deployment of troops from different places into Shanghai: Xi uses “clearing” to clear the nest of the Jiang faction
According to NTDTV, some netizens captured footage of the Chinese military transport plane “Y-20” landing at Shanghai Hongqiao Airport on the evening of the 3rd. Judging from the videos published on the Internet, multiple Y-20s arrived at Hongqiao Airport late at night.
On the evening of the 4th, the official Weibo account of the Air Force of the Western Theater Command of the Communist Party of China (@西空天) posted two photos of the Yun-20, with the caption: “Xiaoxi is here too, let’s guard ‘Shanghai’ together!” But what is strange is that 6 When I checked it out, I found that the “Western Sky” account could no longer see this Weibo.
The report pointed out that the reporter checked the official Weibo account of the Eastern Theater Command to which Shanghai belongs, and found that apart from daily training, there has been no information about assistance to Shanghai, nor any relevant statement to the Central Military Commission. As early as during the anti-extradition movement in Hong Kong, the garrison in Hong Kong “showed allegiance” to the central government more than once.
In this regard, some commentators believe that Xi Jinping may not be at ease with the party, government, and army in the “Shanghai Gang” site, so the purpose of deploying troops from different places is to control the situation in Shanghai more securely.
Yokogawa, a current affairs commentator based in the United States, said on the “Yokogawa Viewpoint” program, “The last time I saw this kind of momentum in Shanghai was the measures taken to prevent the Shanghai rebellion after Beijing arrested the Gang of Four.”
Yokogawa said that the sudden change in Shanghai’s anti-epidemic policy is a political struggle or a line struggle, and many articles in the CCP’s official media have made it clear. Whatever the motivation, some argue that Xi Jinping does get a chance to clear Shanghai, the home of the Jiang faction.
“Voice of America” recently quoted Zheng Xuguang, a political commentator, who believed that the closure of Shanghai actually deeply reflects the political crushing of the “Shanghai Gang”. Zheng Xuguang said that Shanghai has never said the word “closed city”, and Xi Jinping has never given up “clearing”. Political leadership is the fatal injury to China’s epidemic prevention.
Current affairs commentator Yuan Bin wrote an article in The Epoch Times to analyze that this Shanghai decisive battle with the goal of “clearing zero” appears to be about epidemic prevention, but in essence it is a political and power struggle.
The article said, what is the top priority for Xi Jinping now? It was successfully re-elected at the 20th National Congress. In the Wuhan CCP virus epidemic, Xi Jinping “personally directed” and suppressed it, and “clearing” became one of his greatest political capitals. The Shanghai epidemic this time is no less than Wuhan. If it is not cleared or cleared, it will become Xi Jinping’s negative assets, giving the opposition within the party sufficient reasons to block his re-election. Can he do it? Therefore, in order to block the mouth of the opposition within the party and to clear the way for a successful re-election at the 20th National Congress, Shanghai must be cleared.
In fact, the various humanitarian disasters caused by the recent closure of the city and the epidemic prevention measures in Shanghai have caused complaints from local officials, scholars and the public. Some Shanghai disease control experts lamented that the prevention and control measures have “driven people crazy”. Not only the experts felt helpless, but also the secretary of the neighborhood committee of the grass-roots organization also said that the epidemic prevention system was in a mess. She even cried to the caller for help on the phone and complained of physical and mental exhaustion and great pressure.
Under the strict “lockdown and control” measures, residents of many communities in Shanghai have experienced severe food shortages. Including most of the couriers being quarantined, the supplies ordered by residents, the vegetables and meat provided to Shanghai from other places were not taken over and distributed, and the vegetables and meat rotted and deteriorated. The videos uploaded by netizens showed that a large number of vegetables were piled up on the road, and some people threw spoiled pork into the trash can, but in fact some Shanghai residents are starving for food.
However, the CCP virus epidemic in Shanghai continued to spiral out of control after the closure of the city. On Wednesday (April 6), Shanghai announced a new single-day high of 16,766 cases, and state media quoted Gu Honghui, head of the epidemic control team, as saying that the city’s epidemic “is still running at a high level” and that “the situation is extremely serious. “.
Shanghai is China’s economic, financial, aviation, port and logistics center, and is the engine of China’s economy, accounting for about 4% of China’s annual gross domestic product. Analysts believe that the CCP’s continued blockade of Shanghai, the financial center, has the potential to destroy China’s economy and “tear apart” the already tense global supply chain.
“Voice of America” reported that on the morning of March 26, Wu Fan, deputy dean of Shanghai Medical College of Fudan University, vowed at a press conference on epidemic prevention that Shanghai could not be locked down. The city was closed on the 28th, and China’s economic engine was directly shut down.
Xie Tian, chair professor at the Aiken School of Business at the University of South Carolina, said that Shanghai’s annual gross domestic product accounts for 4% of China’s. In the past year, only Shanghai’s fiscal revenue and expenditure were positive, while the other 30 provinces and municipalities were all in deficit. It has the function of helping or supporting other provinces, cities and regions. Once the city is closed, it will hit China’s economy hard, and it will also cause supply chain breaks.
There are also growing signs that mainland China’s economy is slowing sharply as city lockdowns, surges in cases limit mobility and weigh on demand.
Activity in China’s services sector contracted at its fastest pace in two years in March. The closely-watched Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 42.0 in March from 50.2 in February, below the 50-point “water mark”.
China’s vast manufacturing sector shrank last week, according to a survey cited by the British newspaper The Guardian. Economists warned on Wednesday that the impact of Shanghai’s lockdown will become more apparent in the future, with worse data in the months ahead.
Asian stocks were in a sea of red on Wednesday, with the Nikkei down 1.5% and the Hang Seng down more than 2%. European markets also fell in early trade.
The Guardian quoted Capital Economics’ Alex Holmes as saying that the spillover effects from the outbreak in China to the rest of Asia have so far been relatively small, but “the potential for major disruptions to supply chains remains a significant and growing risk”. “The global supply chain is already very strained after months of disruption. Now a small bottleneck can have a huge impact.”
The two-year coronavirus pandemic has disrupted the complex supply chains of the global economy, leading to sharp increases in the prices of commodities, food and consumer goods.
On the other hand, the Ukrainian war has fueled inflation, especially the price of oil and grain, and further CCP lockdowns could make the situation worse.