News from the Financial Associated Press, January 29 (Reporter Wang Haichun)During the Spring Festival holiday in 2023, the transactions of second-hand housing and new housing in various places will be uneven.
During the Spring Festival this year (January 21-27), the number of second-hand housing markets in many cities showed a significant increase compared with the same period last year.
According to data from the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, during the Spring Festival, 56 of the 70 cities in the country experienced a significant increase in the average daily demand for second-hand housing, of which only 9 second-tier cities and 5 third-tier cities saw a decline in demand. Among the second-tier cities, the three provincial capitals of Changchun, Shenyang, and Harbin, as well as Dalian, saw a sharp increase in demand for second-hand housing, while Kunming, Xiamen, Guiyang, Chengdu and other cities saw a decline in demand.
According to the data of the Shell Research Institute, the number of second-hand housing belts in 50 cities across the country has increased by 28% compared with that during the Spring Festival in 2022. Among them, the activity of second-hand housing listings in Chengdu and Chongqing increased by 1.5 times and 1 times respectively compared with last year’s Spring Festival, the number of viewings during the Spring Festival in Huizhou, Dongguan, and Foshan doubled compared with the same period last year, and the increase in Shenzhen was as high as 86%. In terms of transaction volume, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in the key 50 cities of Shell this year increased by 57% compared with last year’s Spring Festival.
In stark contrast to the transactions in the second-hand housing market, the transactions in the new housing market during the Spring Festival this year have not bottomed out.
According to the research report of the China Index Institute, during the Spring Festival in 2023, the transaction volume of new houses in representative cities will remain low, which is about 21% lower than that of last year’s Spring Festival holiday, and will return to 75% of the transaction volume during the Spring Festival in 2019. Only some cities have experienced year-on-year growth under the low base of the same period last year. .
According to data from CRIC, the transaction volume in 40 key cities across the country during the Spring Festival this year was only 357,000 square meters, a decrease of 75% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 14%. In terms of energy levels, the demand for housing purchases in first-tier cities is relatively strong. Although the transaction volume during the Spring Festival week fell by 72% year-on-year, it is still significantly better than the same period in 2021 and 2019.
Shell analysts believe that the performance of the property market during the Spring Festival reflects that there are large differences between cities and groups of people. Those who just need to have weak expectations for the property market, but those who are improving have stronger expectations for the property market.
Yang Kewei, deputy general manager of CRIC Research Center, said that based on the subscription area of key monitoring projects in 17 typical cities, the new housing market in Wuhan, Nanjing, Chongqing and other cities has not yet improved significantly.
Taking Wuhan as an example, the subscription volume of the 77 on-sale projects counted by CRIC in Wuhan decreased significantly during the Spring Festival. Among them, 38% of the projects only visited without subscription, 47% of the projects subscribed for less than 5 sets, and 10% of the projects subscribed for 5 sets. – 10 sets, 5% of the projects subscribe for 10-15 sets. In Nanjing, due to the factors of returning home during the Spring Festival, the number of project customer visits is about 50-60% of the weekly visits before the festival, and the actual number of subscriptions for most projects is relatively small.
Affected by the sluggish demand side, real estate companies generally do not have high enthusiasm for launching properties during the Spring Festival holiday this year. Only a few real estate companies in second- and third-tier cities still maintain high enthusiasm for launching properties.
“Except for a few cities such as Qingdao, Changsha, and Meizhou, the supply of new houses during the Spring Festival this year exceeded 20,000 square meters, and the supply of most cities did not increase significantly.” Yang Kewei said.
Although the overall situation of new housing transactions is not good, some properties in third- and fourth-tier cities such as Xuzhou, Suining, Dazhou, Luzhou, Mianyang, Yibin, Huai’an, Suqian, etc., “turned against the trend” during the Spring Festival this year, and 28 new third- and fourth-tier cities The transaction area of commodity housing increased by 13% year-on-year, and the southeast coastal cities such as Wenzhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, and Zhuhai all increased by more than 50% year-on-year.
In addition, CRIC conducted a survey of hot-selling projects during the Spring Festival in 35 cities and found that 63 of the 96 hot-selling projects were located in third- and fourth-tier cities, accounting for as high as 66%. Tier 4 cities.
According to Lu Qilin, research director of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, this has something to do with the wave of returning home buyers and the degree of discounts offered by real estate companies. On the one hand, the number of people returning to their hometowns during the Spring Festival this year has increased significantly compared with previous years, which has driven some demand for home purchases; on the other hand, various promotional activities launched by real estate companies during this period have also played a positive role in attracting buyers to the market.
“The sales promotion in Sichuan and Chongqing is not small. Projects located in Luzhou, Ziyang and other places have attracted many home buyers with low down payments. Other projects with small discounts have not seen a significant increase in visits and subscriptions.” Yang Yang Ke Wei said.
It further pointed out that judging from the situation of the property market during the Spring Festival, the start of 2023 is still difficult. Under the superimposition of various favorable policies, the turnover has not been significantly improved at present, and the follow-up market trend remains to be further observed.
Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the Index Department of the China Index Academy, believes that after a long period of adjustments, 2023 will be a year for real estate to restart. With the support of policies, the real estate market will return to normal operation.
“In the short term, the implementation of policies at both ends of supply and demand will continue to be accelerated. The demand for housing in first- and second-tier cities is strong, and the market is expected to usher in the first recovery. This year’s property market ‘Little Spring’ may appear in a few cities, but for most cities, the economic environment And housing price expectations are still weak, and it will take longer for the market to recover.” Chen Wenjing said.