Approval ratings are falling due to prolonged legislative conflict, appointment of Ambassador Lee Jong-seop, and controversy over Director Hwang.
▲ People Power Party Emergency Response Committee Chairman and General Election Committee Chairman Han Dong-hoon is speaking at the National Election Committee meeting held at the central party headquarters in Yeouido, Seoul on the morning of the 18th. (yunhap news)
With about three weeks left until the 22nd general election, recent major opinion polls show that the People Power Party’s approval rating in the metropolitan area is falling significantly, and the ‘metropolitan area crisis theory’ is reemerging in the ruling party. Recently, the medical community’s collective action against the government’s policy to increase the number of medical schools is prolonging, and the controversy surrounding Ambassador to Australia Lee Jong-seop and Presidential Office’s Senior Civil Society Secretary Hwang Sang-moo is growing, raising a sense of crisis centered around the metropolitan area, which is sensitive to current issues.
According to a survey of political party support (sampling error ±3.1%p at 95% confidence level) conducted by Realmeter on the 14th to 15th on the request of Energy Economy among 1,000 voters aged 18 or older across the country, the People Power Party’s approval rating was the same as in the previous survey. It recorded 37.9%, down 4.0 percentage points, and the Democratic Party of Korea’s approval rating also dropped 2.3 percentage points to 40.8%. Although both parties’ approval ratings fell, the Democratic Party was ahead of the People Power Party by 2.9% points, within the margin of error, and the approval rating gap widened further than the previous week (1.2% points).
In particular, the decline in the approval rating of the People Power Party was noticeable in metropolitan areas such as Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeonggi. In the Seoul area, the People Power Party’s approval rating was 31.0%, down 7.6 percentage points from the previous week (38.6%). The People Power Party’s approval rating in Seoul showed an upward trend for five consecutive weeks, rising from 33.8% in the fourth week of January to 34.0% → 36.2% → 36.6% → 37.5% → 48.0%, but in the first week of March it rose to 38.6%, falling to 9.4%. It fell by % and turned into a downward trend. In particular, compared to the recent high point in the 5th week of February (48.0%), it fell by 17.0% points in 3 weeks. In the Incheon and Gyeonggi regions, the People Power Party’s approval rating fell 5.4 percentage points to 36.7%, and fell 6.2 percentage points compared to the 5th week of February (42.9%). The People Power Party’s approval rating in the metropolitan area has been declining for two weeks.
The Democratic Party of Korea’s approval rating also fell compared to the previous week’s survey, but is showing signs of recovery compared to the 5th week of February, when it recently hit a low point due to the nomination crisis. In the Seoul area, the approval rating of the Democratic Party of Korea was 39.0%, down 6.4 percentage points from the previous survey (45.4%). The Democratic Party’s approval rating has shown an overall decline since the 4th week of January (44.5%), recording 47.7% → 41.6% → 38.0% → 40.5% → 31.5%, but rose 13.9 percentage points from the previous survey, the first week of March, to 45.4. It was calculated as a percentage, showing a recovery trend. In the Incheon-Gyeonggi region, the Democratic Party’s approval rating also increased by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous week (43.5%).
The metropolitan area is considered the biggest battleground in this general election, with 122 seats (48 in Seoul, 60 in Gyeonggi, and 14 in Incheon), or 48.0% of the total 254 seats. In particular, the metropolitan area is an area where results frequently change depending on the issue, as there are many moderate voters whose party support changes depending on policies or issues. In the 21st general election held in 2020, the Democratic Party of Korea won a landslide victory, sweeping 103 seats in the metropolitan area alone, but in the 2022 presidential election two years later, the difference between candidate Lee Jae-myung (48.75%) and candidate Yoon Seok-yeol (48.25%) was only 1.1 percentage points. .
In the ruling party, with just three weeks left before the general election, the appointment of Ambassador Lee Jong-seop to Australia, who is under investigation by the High-ranking Public Officials Crime Investigation Agency (Corruption Investigation Office) for the prolongation of legislative conflict and ‘suspicion of external pressure on the investigation into the death of a Marine Corps member’, and the ‘Hoekkal’ of the President’s Senior Secretary for Civil Society Hwang Sang-moo. The sense of crisis is increasing as negative issues, such as the controversy over the ‘terrorism’ statement, are rising to the surface.
People Power Party Emergency Response Committee Chairman Han Dong-hoon said regarding Ambassador Lee on the 17th, “I don’t think this is an issue worth causing fatigue to the people by engaging in a political fight ahead of the general election.” He added, “The Corruption Investigation Office must immediately notify the recall, and Ambassador Lee must “You must return home immediately,” he said. Chairman Han also said of Chief Hwang, “This is a remark that does not fit the public’s expectations, and he must decide his own course of action.”
Na Kyung-won, co-chair of the election campaign committee in charge of the Seoul area election, also appeared on MBC radio on the 18th and said, “Even if there was no fault of the President’s office (in the appointment and departure of Ambassador Lee), of course the people feel that this is an appointment of Ambassador Do-pi-seong.” He pointed out, “It is correct that they have the attitude of being investigated after coming in.”
Ahn Cheol-soo, co-chairman of the campaign committee in charge of the Gyeonggi region, also met with reporters on this day and said, “What we have reached a certain level of agreement with Chairman Han is that action must be taken regarding this (appointment of Ambassador Lee),” and expressed his willingness to come and undergo an investigation. “I think taking action itself is meaningful to the people,” he said.
Meanwhile, Realmeter’s survey of party support and proportional representation party support mentioned in the article was conducted through wireless (97%) and wired (3%) automatic response methods, and the response rate was 4.2%. For further details, please refer to the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee website.