The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 was seen by a large part of the Islamic world as another chapter in the age-old conflict between Dar al Islam, the land of the faithful, the home of Islam, with Dar al Harb, the House of War, the one where infidels inhabit, and that, according to current Islamic doctrines, one must finally return to Islam. According to these, an uninvited infidel to Dar al Islam who enters its territory may be killed.
The invasion was the catalyst for an extensive movement in the Islamic world, committed to defending that House of Islam attacked by infidels. From the Maghreb to the confines of Islamic Asia, in Indonesia and the Philippines, passing through the Middle East, Central Asia, including the still Republics of the USSR with an Islamic majority, and, above all, due to its geographical proximity, Pakistan, this great This movement would contribute important resources, in money and equipment, and also in volunteers willing to seek paradise by participating, and if necessary, dying, in the holy war, the Jihad, against the infidels. Many thousands of young people enlisted and traveled to Afghanistan, where they were trained and equipped for the war, in which they participated during the 10 years of Soviet occupation, whose withdrawal in 1989 would be the swan song of the USSR, which three more years dissolved later.
Administrator and Ideologue
The enormous logistical needs that these volunteers implied were faced by an administrative and financial structure in charge of a Saudi from a good family, who would later become famous, Osama Bin Laden. This was not just a guerrilla leader in a foreign land. Above all, he was an ideologue who saw, in the sectarian divisions of Islam, especially in the hate gap between Sunnis and Shiites, its greatest weakness before the infidels. In effect, he proposed a unity in the policies of all factions, to defeat those who have already begun to be called “crusaders.”
Settle accounts later
Once this had been accomplished, internal differences could be resolved. Osama focused on the entire Christian world, without making distinctions as to whether it is Orthodox, Protestant or Catholic, and on Israel, as the occupant of a region of special religious significance for Islam, Jerusalem, from where the Prophet Muhammad would have departed to heaven. , and historical, since it was the scene of the Crusades, finally rejected victoriously by the Islamic world, led curiously by a great Kurdish warrior, Salah ad Din, known in the Christian world as Saladin.
Terrorist attacks
Their terrorist attacks, the apotheosis of which would be the attack on the main symbols of North American power, the economic attack on the Twin Towers and the military attack on the Pentagon, were successful, but not the political one, when the plane launched against Washington was shot down, produced a expected punitive reaction, the invasion of Afghanistan by the United States, followed shortly by that of Iraq, exacerbating those extreme positions of Islamic fundamentalism that Osama had encouraged, and that were carried to their strangely logical ends with the rise of ISIS and the state Islamic.
Withdrawals
20 years later, after the unhappy US withdrawal from Afghanistan, once again converted into a stronghold of the most retarded and ferocious fundamentalism, with a Taliban determined to impose its most primitive worldview at all costs, and an Iraq in which, fulfilling that vision of temporary unity advocated by the founder of Al Qaeda, Shiites and Sunnis have fought against the foreign presence in the country.
Sectarianism
The Middle East has gone through decades and even centuries of religious and political division, which has even bloodily confronted the various factions and countries involved.
The war in Syria, the fight against ISIS, the civil war in Yemen, the expansionism of the Iranian theocracy, in addition, of course, to the open wound of Palestine, have been the framework of the recent history of the region.
change of course
Suddenly, this circumstance took a turn that had not been anticipated and less evaluated in all its dimension, whose most obvious demonstration was the reestablishment of relations between some enemies that seemed irreconcilable: Saudi Arabia, champion of Sunniism, and the Islamic Republic of Iran, run by a radical Shiite theocracy.
The Iranian embassy in Riyadh has just been reopened, and presumably the Saudi embassy will reopen soon in Tehran, which 7 years ago was assaulted by a mob, who looted it and then set it on fire, in retaliation for the execution of a Shiite leader in Saudi Arabia. These actions would be the apparent cause for the break in relations, also framed in the confrontation between the two countries, by intermediaries and the deaths of others, in the civil war in Yemen, which has become the worst humanitarian tragedy to date, with almost 400,000 deaths and a famine that is barely contained with contributions from the United Nations and other humanitarian organizations.
The hand that moves the cradle
The hand that was behind the rapprochement was none other than that of China, close to the Iranian regime, obviously interested in filling the void that the American withdrawals have left in the region, and the uncertainty of its regional allies about their real commitment in the future. Above all, because of the increasingly worrying schizophrenia in American society, which has lacked, for a long time, a coherent policy and objectives in its global strategies.
Loss
The impact of 9/11 was such that the orientation of some enormous capabilities deviated from the central and essential, to the peripheral, losing along the way all the advantages that arose after the collapse of the USSR, the main strategic rival during the Cold War. . The US inability to focus on the obvious growth of China in all areas, and its penetration in all regions of the world, through aggressive and opaque credit policies, has allowed the latter to challenge the United States and to the western world, in the fields in which, supposedly, they were superior, the industries and the technology.
These were delivered to China, due to the greed of Western companies, without benefit of inventory, blinded by the desire for profit, who see how China displaces them from their own markets, due to the comparative advantages that Western investments attracted at the time. , cheap labor, and non-existent labor legislation, as far as union pressure is concerned, since the Chinese regime, by its nature, guarantees that there will be no strikes. Last May, China became the world‘s leading exporter and producer of vehicles, almost all of which are already Chinese brands, in the most significant symbolic field of the global industry.
realignment
The alignment of the Middle East with interests contrary to those of the West has become evident with OPEC’s reduction of its oil production, to force the rise in oil prices. Knowing that it would have been very difficult to get all members to cut production, Saudi Arabia unilaterally reduced its production, as its recent profits allow it. The beneficiary was Russia, and indirectly, China, to which it sells at a great discount.
The increase in fuel prices, in the midst of the fragile environment of economic recovery, practically derails the efforts that have been made throughout the year, and the declared objective of oil at $80 to $100 per barrel will determine that the world recession will continue, as can already be seen, especially in Europe, but that it will seriously impact the large economies of India and Japan, coincidentally China’s main Asian rivals, whose oil dependence is total.
The prodigal son
In the midst of this realignment, the return of the prodigal son, Basher al Assad, to his natural environment, the Arab League, has become the main scene of authoritarianism, so widespread in the Islamic world, both Sunni and Shiite. He returned after ten years of his isolation by Sunni Arab governments, in what was evidently not a sudden attack of repudiation for war crimes and crimes against humanity, perpetrated by the second in the Assad dynasty, supported by the theocracy. determined to maintain its control over the territorial strip that links Iran to the Eastern Mediterranean, governed by Shiite factions in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and by Russia, due to its interest in maintaining its control over the port of Latakia, key to its naval presence in the Mediterranean. He was very warmly received by his peers, who were quick to forget the more than half a million deaths and the 8 million refugees that the Syrian civil war has caused.
Captagon’s Specter
Apparently, one of the reasons why the Arab League is opening the doors to Syria would be the growing threat that hangs over the entire region, due to the development in Syria of a powerful synthetic drug industry, especially the so-called Captagon. , a highly addictive amphetamine, which became the lifeline of the Assad regime during its years of isolation. Syria is the world‘s leading producer of the drug, and its preferred market is the Gulf countries. Apparently there are close ties, even family members, between the Syrian regime and the criminal structures that run the business, to the point of being able to speak of a narco-state. Among the unwritten and unofficially spoken agreements between the Arab League and Syria would apparently be Assad’s commitment to stop traffic to the south. It will be necessary to fear, if this happens, that this massive production of drugs will look for other markets, which with Hezbollah’s close ties with the drug-trafficking gangs in Latin America, could easily penetrate, due to its low cost, a region that is already deeply penetrated by international drug trafficking mafias, not only as producers, but also as consumers of low-quality drugs.
military approach
To close with a flourish, the announcement of joint naval maneuvers by the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and Iran, with the Russian and Chinese navies, highlights the clear turn of the region towards authoritarian states, little concerned about anti-democratic and repressive policies, which prevail in monarchies, dictatorships and theocracies in the Middle East, contrary to the annoying claims of the Western world for serious violations of people’s rights, including murders and torture, in addition to the increasing use of Capital punishment as a mechanism of repression and intimidation in the region, particularly in Iran and Saudi Arabia, which are second only to China in executions per year.
the pantry cat
Apparently, an agreement would be established to control, on behalf of the Gulf states, the safety of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world‘s crude passes. This means leaving in the hands of states that are demonstrating with their actions a growing hostility towards the Western world, one of its main clients, which until now has been in charge of keeping this vital route open to navigation. Relying on the good faith of the Islamic Republic of Iran to ensure navigation in the Persian Gulf and beyond would seem extremely naive on the part of the small kingdoms and emirates of the Gulf, which would leave themselves exposed to a country that has never hesitated to use arms. of blackmail or terrorism, to promote their agendas. Their Iranian colonization of Syria and Lebanon, once prosperous, now bankrupt countries, should prompt careful consideration of what they are getting into.
We find ourselves before another example of the change of era that is taking place, where the dominant role that the Western world has played during the last half millennium gives way to new demographic but also cultural, ethical and political realities, which are expressed with increasing force.
Democracy and its values, as we understand them, apparently have no place in the new order that is being announced.