The second meeting of the Presidium of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was held at the Beijing Great Hall on the afternoon of October 18, Beijing time. Xi Jinping presided over the meeting.
According to the Xinhua News Agency, the official media of the Communist Party of China, the meeting passed the resolution (draft) on the report of the 19th Central Committee, the resolution (draft) on the work report of the 19th Central Commission for Discipline Inspection of the Communist Party of China, and the “Amendment to the Constitution of the Communist Party of China (Amendment)”. )” (draft) is submitted to the delegations for discussion.
The meeting adopted the proposed list of candidates for the 20th Central Committee members, alternate members and members of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, and submitted them to the delegations for deliberation.
The meeting adopted the election method for the General Assembly, which has been deliberated by various delegations. The meeting also passed the list of scrutineers and chief voters, which will be submitted to the General Assembly for approval when the official election is to be held.
This means that the CCP’s high-level personnel arrangements have been prepared, but since it has not been announced, it is still a mystery to the outside world. Among them, the candidates for the new Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China are the focus of attention from the outside world.
The Wall Street Journal reported on October 17 that, according to people close to the CCP leadership, “Xi Jinping may pack up his political allies to show his strength.”
One of Mr. Xi’s cronies to promote is Li Qiang, the party secretary of the Communist Party of China in Shanghai, people familiar with the matter said. Li Qiang, 63, is also seen as a popular candidate for the premiership to be appointed at next spring’s National People’s Congress meeting, people familiar with the matter said.
The Chinese premier is usually in charge of economic work. China’s economy has been hit as Xi Jinping’s dynamic policy to prevent the spread of the virus, a sharp downturn in the real estate market and regulatory overhaul have created uncertainty for businesses.
Other potential candidates include Ding Xuexiang, director of the Central General Office, and Li Xi, secretary of the Guangdong provincial party committee. Ding Xuexiang, 60, is an assistant to Mr. Xi; Li Xi was a secretary for a Communist Party veteran who was close to Mr. Xi’s family.
People close to the party leadership cautioned that the final review of the composition of the Politburo Standing Committee will not be announced until Sunday, when the party leadership will finalize the list of members for the next Politburo Standing Committee.
At the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Xi Jinping is expected to break the recent precedent and assume the top leadership of the party for the third time.
Once he gets his wish, Xi will gather like-minded officials by his side and break the succession routine established by the Communist Party in recent decades, the report said. Political analysts say that could make it easier for Mr. Xi to advance his priorities, but it could also lead to more dire consequences if the agenda gets blocked.
Ryan Manuel, managing director of Bilby, a Hong Kong-based artificial intelligence firm that analyzes Chinese government documents, said the risk to Xi Jinping was much greater if things went wrong.
With more cronies in key positions, Mr. Xi is likely to delegate some power to his trusted lieutenants as he ages, some of the people said. Mr. Xi has fewer political opponents to worry about, many of whom he has silenced through an anti-corruption drive and blocked political interference by retired party elders, people familiar with the matter said.
Among the new standing committee members, Li Xi, secretary of the Communist Party’s Guangdong provincial party committee since 2017, could be promoted to be the next secretary of the Communist Party’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, people familiar with the matter said. Ding Xuexiang is expected to be appointed executive vice premier of the State Council early next year.
According to people familiar with the matter, Wang Huning and Zhao Leji, the first secretary of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee, are expected to join Xi Jinping as the only re-elected members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, although the first two may be in charge of a new division of labor.
Analysts pointed out that Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua are also candidates to replace the current Premier Li Keqiang. While both were former vice-premiers, as has been the norm for decades, both have openly supported the policies of Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping. But Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua are “liberal reform benchmarks” who lean toward “market principles”, and both are considered to be “not in Xi Jinping’s circle”, but are supported by “other political seniors”.
Therefore, the outside world originally thought that Hu Chunhua, who had a high voice for becoming a permanent member, might not be able to become a permanent member; Wang Yang was also less likely to remain a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China.
The Wall Street Journal previously reported that He Lifeng, head of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, is expected to oversee economic and financial policy. He Lifeng has been a good friend of Xi Jinping since the 1980s. In this new role, He Lifeng will replace current Vice Premier Liu He. Liu He has been Xi Jinping’s chief economic adviser and the Chinese chief representative of the China-US trade negotiations appointed by Xi Jinping.
People close to the party leadership and political analysts say Xi is not expected to promote any potential successor to the Politburo Standing Committee, as doing so would undermine his own authority as the top leader.
Li Qiang and Li Xi, who are only a few years younger than Xi Jinping, are considered unlikely to be viable successors. Ding Xuexiang is younger, but he has never served as provincial party secretary. It has long been considered an unwritten prerequisite when considering a candidate for China’s top leader, being a provincial party secretary.
Many in the business community believe that Li Qiang, a relatively liberal party leader, prefers to discuss business deals rather than politics.
Chen Gang, a senior fellow at the East Asian Institute at the National University of Singapore, said that if Xi promoted Li Qiang to the post of prime minister, he would be able to strengthen his control over economic and social policymaking. Chen Gang predicted that China’s reform and opening up will continue, but at a slower pace; the dynamic clearing and epidemic prevention policy will continue to be implemented, and Li Qiang may rely on stimulus policies to boost the economy.
Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post reported on October 18 that Xi Jinping has made a larger-than-expected change in the personnel layout of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Among the current seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee, four may retire.
The report pointed out that Li Zhanshu, Han Zheng and Li Keqiang may leave office, and it is unclear who the fourth person to retire is.
Similar to the Wall Street Journal report, Nanzao reported that Xi Jinping’s most trusted political aide, Ding Xuexiang, director of the General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and director of the General Secretary’s Office, is a popular candidate for the general election; Li Qiang and Li Xi are also likely to enter the general election. .
Nanzao mentioned that a possible candidate for permanent appointment is also Chen Miner, secretary of the Chongqing Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China.
As for Hu Chunhua, Li Hongzhong, secretary of the CPC Tianjin Municipal Party Committee, and Cai Qi, secretary of the CPC Beijing Municipal Party Committee, Nanzao reported that it would be difficult to advance.
It is generally expected that Li Zhanshu, the 72-year-old chairman of the Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party’s National People’s Congress, and the 68-year-old Vice Premier Han Zheng of the current standing committee will step down.
Li Keqiang will step down as prime minister. It is generally believed that Li may continue to serve as a member of the Standing Committee and concurrently serve as chairman of the Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party. But the latest sources revealed that Li is very likely to choose to retire naked. However, the fourth candidate to quit the Standing Committee is still unclear, because Wang Yang, chairman of the CPPCC National Committee, and Wang Huning, the ideological director and first secretary of the secretariat, are all the same age as Li Keqiang, and Zhao Leji, the secretary of the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, is the youngest at 65 years old.
Deutsche Welle reported on October 18 that the Wall Street Journal quoted a news report on the latest forecast list, and the proportion of Xi Jinping’s cronies entering the general committee is slightly different than many previous forecasts and analyses.
For example, Taiwan’s United Daily reported on Tuesday (October 18), citing an unnamed “latest news”, that the list of candidates for the Standing Committee was: Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Wang Yang, and Zhao Leji after negotiations in Beidaihe, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, and the Politburo meeting. , Wang Huning, Ding Xuexiang, Hu Chunhua.
It is reported that in the final consultation stage, the opinions received all reflected that the average age of the standing committee list was older, which “does not meet the expectations of the CCP.” Therefore, in addition to Li Zhanshu and Han Zheng resigning, Wang Huning also needs to resign. The top four standing committee members Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Wang Yang, and Zhao Leji did not move, and the three “post-60s” Ding Xuexiang, Chen Min’er, and Hu Chunhua joined the Standing Committee.
The newspaper also stated that Xi Jinping will continue to serve as the general secretary of the Communist Party of China, Li Keqiang will be transferred to the chairman of the National People’s Congress, and Wang Yang will be the premier of the State Council.
When interpreting the two prediction lists for permanent entry that each claimed to have “news”, Wang Xinxian, a distinguished professor of the East Asian Institute of National Chengchi University, believes that the version of the Wall Street Journal is more “extreme”; although the version of the United Daily News is more “reasonable”, the list No Li Qiang differs from his analysis.
Wang Xinxian said that in the general analysis and prediction of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, there will be several extreme versions, one is “two ups and two downs” (that is, Li Zhanshu and Han Zheng leave office); the other extreme is to keep only Xi Jinping, and the other six Each seat arranges his own men and horses. He said that “a lot of things don’t conform to the CCP’s promotion rules” and that “the differences are quite big,” and “it’s more like the other extreme.”
Wang Xinxian pointed out that the list of the Wall Street Journal “is of course the success of Xi’s direct descendants. The original group faction was to put the chat and preparations in a less important position”, but such an arrangement is “more unreasonable.”
He believes that if Li Qiang becomes Premier, the representative breaks a lot of rules, because everyone who has served as Prime Minister in the past has served as Vice Premier, as has been the case for the past three decades.
In addition, Wang Xinxian believes that China’s current economic and social problems are “the worst since the reform and opening up, and they are national problems.” Therefore, Xi Jinping needs a person with national governance ability and experience to serve as prime minister.
He also said that, from the interaction between Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang in the past ten years, “Li Keqiang has a great function for Xi Jinping, that is, he is a firewall, or he can throw the blame.” “It’s not a peaceful and prosperous world now. There are a lot of things to deal with now, and the impact will directly impact Xi himself.”
Wang Xinxian believes that even if Xi Jinping has such great power, it seems that there is no need to break this thing, “If everyone knows that this person is the person he (Xi Jinping) promoted, if there is a problem and he can’t handle it, it is not directly burning himself. body? Why would you do such a thing?”