The vote is approaching in forced stages: by 13-14 August the parties will have to present their symbols and, especially by 21-22 August the lists with the candidates of the single-member constituencies will be filed. Just the latter (from which a third of the elected will come) will be decisive in deciding who will win and therefore will go to govern the country. Especially in the center-right, the coalition that seems more cohesive (and therefore, due to the majority, has more chances of winning in the uninominal), the battle to win the candidates has already begun.
The one-third-one-third-one-third rule
The clash in the center-right is above all about the rules to be given to choose the candidates in the unimominal. Lega and Fi would like the rule according to which each party should be entitled to a third of the colleges. But Fdi, strengthened by the polls that give it as the first party in Italy (over 20%), at a distance from its allies, wants to make the growth in the consensus weigh. Here the battle is above all al Nordconsidered a fiefdom of the League, but where, as the latest municipal authorities have shown, Fdi has now overtaken the Carroccio in many municipalities.
Pd looking for allies to avoid the debacle
For the center-right, with consensus in the proportional far above 43%, it would be enough to win 60-65% of the single-member constituencies to secure an absolute (albeit narrow) majority in the Senate. A not so difficult goal, given that the center-left is divided after the break between the Pd and M5S following the fall of the Draghi government. The Democratic Party risks losing colleges until a few days ago considered safe even in the red areasand this increases the voltage between the various currents of the Dems Nord, with the cut of the parliamentarians, the colleges have become bigger. The capitals (where the center-left is stronger) have in many cases also incorporated the hinterland (where traditionally the center-right prevails). Finally, without the 5 stars, the center-left will be forced to say goodbye to all the colleges of the Sud.
Goal 30 colleges in the Senate
For the secretary Pd Enrico Letta the goal will be to win at least 30 single-member constituencies in the Senate and hope that the proportional polls that give the center-right an advantage will prove the facts that are a little less negative for him. It will not be enough to govern, but it could be enough to prevent the formation of a center-right majority.