Istanbul, 6 maggio 2023, durte la campagna elettorale di Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu © Dilara Acikgoz/Shutterstock
For the first time in over twenty years in power, Erdoğan is facing a coalition and an opponent who could put him in difficulty in the elections on Sunday 14 May. Polls put the outgoing president and his main challenger Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the CHP, at 45%
(Originally posted by Institute for International Political Studies )
For the first time in 21 years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is facing a strong coalition and an opponent who could strain his government in May 14 elections. Erdoğan’s main challenger is Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) who, according to the most reliable polls, could manage to reach and surpass the president’s percentages.
Kılıçdaroğlu is the presidential candidate of the Alliance of the Nation (Millet İttifakı), composed of a coalition of six parties (the so-called “Table of Six”) which represents the main bloc of the opposition front in the upcoming Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections. In addition to the CHP, as the main party of the Alliance with center-left positions, the coalition consists of the nationalist Good Party (İYİ Parti), led by Meral Akşener, and four other parties, including the Democratic Party (DP), the pro-Islamist Happiness Party (SP) and two offshoots of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), the Futuro (GP) and DEVA parties.
Kılıçdaroğlu’s electoral advantage is the result of broad support that includes not only the “Table of Six”, which is expected to garner about 40% of the votes (mainly from CHP and İYİ Parties), but also the pro-Kurdish coalition and left, led by the Peoples Democratic Party (HDP), whose contribution is considered of paramount importance to the success of the CHP leader.
Democracy first
Since its formation, the “Table of Six” has devoted most of its efforts to the creation of a post-election programme. The two main themes of the Alliance’s program can be summarized as “defence of democracy” and “recovery of the economy”.
In 2022, the Table presented five documents and reports to the public, outlining the contours of a transition plan from Turkey’s presidential system – adopted in 2017 – to a “strengthened parliamentary system”. The current presidential system is considered by the Table as an “arbitrary and without binding rules” form of government and the coalition is committed to putting an end to it, as also stated in the “Memorandum of understanding on common policies ”, released earlier this year. In this voluminous document composed of nine chapters, 75 sub-chapters and over 2300 concrete objectives, the parties underline that the first objective of the new Turkish government would be to establish “a libertarian, participatory and pluralist democracy”.
While the transition to a strengthened parliamentary system is seen as the only viable way to achieve this goal, the roadmap outlined in the documents touches on several other elements that have become of paramount importance for Turkey in recent years, including the independence of the judiciary, the reform of public institutions, the violation of human rights and the respect of international treaties of which Turkey is a signatory. In this sense, the common thread running through the roadmap of the National Alliance is the restoration of the rule of law. This objective should be achieved by amending specific articles of the constitution, placing – among others – fundamental rights and freedoms under constitutional protection, as well as expanding the scope of freedom of expression, association and freedom of the press. Other proposed areas of intervention are the end of all the injustices resulting from the emergency decrees following the attempted coup of 2016 as well as illegal detentions. Likewise, the Alliance intends to restructure the public administration “in a civic key”, favoring “principles of merit, legality and transparency”, fighting corruption and prosecuting dishonest officials.
“Leave no citizen behind”
Another central theme in the National Alliance program is the country’s economic recovery. In recent years, as a result of policies aimed at obtaining low interest rates and high conversion rates – according to the “New Economic Model” announced by President Erdoğan in 2021 – large swathes of society have been subjected to pressure from rising costs and high rates of inflation. The Alliance is committed to lifting society out of this oppressive economic condition, while seeking to build an economic model based on permanent growth and prosperity. The plan calls for “eradicating extreme poverty” and “leaving no citizen behind”, making Turkey “a reliable, strong and influential international player”. The formula for implementing this program would be based on orthodox monetary policies, an independent central bank, meritocracy, the return of the rule of law and a system of checks and balances in economic policies. In addition and in connection, the Alliance also underlines the importance of establishing an “inclusive education system” which guarantees equal opportunities and an “inclusive development strategy” which would be guided by the idea of the green and digital transitions.
Also “first 100 days Kılıçdaroğlu’s agenda – his political program for the first 100 days in power, if elected – are centered on economic issues, with a focus on the daily economic problems of citizens. Among the presidential candidate’s promises are aid aimed at rapid and tangible difference in people’s daily lives, such as the Ramadan bonus for pensioners, free meals in public schools and social assistance for citizens with low family incomes.On this last point, the CHP leader pointed out that the The social assistance in question should be deposited in the current accounts of the women in the household.
Given that low-income voters and women have long been prominent supporters of President Erdoğan and his AKP, Kılıçdaroğlu’s “fight against poverty” strategy is seen as essential in trying to garner votes from pro-AKP groups. However, this may not be an easy feat.
Challenges ahead
The Education show that AKP voters do not change their preferences easily. This is most evident in the poor performance of DEVA and GP, parties founded by two former AKP politicians – former Economy Minister Ali Babacan and former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu – which were supposed to attract part of the Alliance to the conservative electorate in the AKP, while the latest polls indicate a preference of less than 1% for each party. However, this trend may not be as true for AKP supporters. A recent survey found that over 30% of women who voted for the AKP in the 2018 election would not vote for the same party this time around. But whether and to what extent this will translate into support for the Alliance remains to be seen. Most of surveys places Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu at around 45%, with neither of them having the certainty of being elected in the first round.
Finally, despite the forecasts favoring Kılıçdaroğlu, a certain caution remains necessary. Turkey’s rule of law has come under severe strain in recent years and there is no guarantee that the AKP and its entourage will accept defeat easily. Erdoğan’s recent accusations against the National Alliance that it is “associated with the PKK” (the Kurdish Workers’ Party, which is an illegal formation) or Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu’s remarks that he interprets May 14 as “a attempted coup” are indicative of their aversion to accepting defeat.
If Kılıçdaroğlu wins, other challenges also remain. The implementation of the Alliance roadmap remains a major question mark. The opposition’s plan is to dismantle a system that has been built over the past two decades on the loyalty to the AKP of people, both public and private, who have benefited from this system and who will not accept radical changes easily. Furthermore, in order to carry out any constitutional change, it will be essential that the opposition secures the necessary majority in the post-election parliamentary formation. According to the surveys today, this scenario is unlikely.
Similarly, while the opposition bloc’s current strength comes from the decision of its different components to unite, securing and maintaining political stability through a broad alliance will be another challenging task. Meral Akşener’s failed attempt to sabotage Kılıçdaroğlu’s candidacy last March was a first warning of this. However, it should also be mentioned that Kılıçdaroğlu has earned a reputation for being a balanced figure who has managed to overcome conflicts by engaging in dialogue while making some courageous decisions. This also appears to be one of the elements that have brought him and his Alliance to this point and which could determine the success of his presidential candidacy.
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