[Global Times reporter Zhang Jing, Xing Xiaojing, Liu Caiyu, Zhao Yusha]The results of South Korea’s 20th presidential election were released on the 10th. The largest opposition National Power Party candidate Yin Xiyue defeated the ruling party’s Common Democratic candidate Li Zaiming and was successfully elected with 48.58% of the votes. He will succeed Moon Jae-in as South Korea’s president in May. After the president-elect who sent two former presidents to prison, will he repeat the “Blue House Curse” of liquidating the outgoing president? In addition, Yin Xiyue’s first agenda after winning the election was to have a phone call with US President Biden, which was even before his phone call with Moon Jae-in. Many analysts worry that Yin Xiyue, who has repeatedly stated before the election to “strengthen the South Korea-US alliance”, may “choose sides” between the United States and China. The Yonhap News Agency said on the 10th that “the future participation in the (U.S., Japan, Australia and India) Group of Four (Quad) and the additional deployment of THAAD will become the eye of the storm in South Korea-China relations.”
“Liquidation” or “Unity”
“The regime has been rotated again after a lapse of 5 years,” South Korea’s “Central Daily” said on the 10th that the National Power Party presidential candidate Yin Xiyue was elected as the 20th president of South Korea. The conservative camp in South Korea, which once faced annihilation due to the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye, successfully turned around in this election, regaining power after five years, breaking the 10-year rule between the conservative and progressive camps after the implementation of the direct presidential election system in South Korea in 1987. The “ten-year cycle law” in which cycles take turns in power.
Yin Xiyue is famous in South Korea for investigating the scandal of former President Park Geun-hye’s “confidence in politics” and Lee Myung-bak’s corruption case, which eventually sent the two former presidents to prison. But he later ran into conflict with the current government’s judicial reforms that weakened the power of the prosecution, so he joined the largest opposition party, the National Power Party, and won the presidential election in just eight months.
Yin Xiyue held her first press conference at the Library of Congress on the 10th and delivered a speech. He talked about his ruling philosophy after taking office, saying that he would “only believe in the people and follow the will of the people” and “stay away from all forces and ideas that threaten freedom and democracy.” In terms of foreign policy, Yin Xiyue said that it will rebuild the South Korea-US alliance, strengthen the all-round strategic alliance, and at the same time develop “mutual respect” South Korea-China relations and build future-oriented South Korea-Japan relations. On North Korea policy, he said he would resolutely respond to “North Korea’s unreasonable behavior”, but would not close the door to dialogue.
Regarding the regime rotation between the conservative and progressive camps, what people are most concerned about is whether the “Blue House curse” that was liquidated after the former president left office is repeated. In February this year, when Yin Xiyue was interviewed by South Korea’s “Central Daily News”, he was asked “if he is in power, will he conduct an investigation into the accumulated abuses of the regime before the liquidation”, he answered flatly: “Of course liquidation is required, and investigation is needed.” Many analysts believe that Yin Xiyue After taking office, in addition to “liquidating” Moon Jae-in personally, he will also fully “liquidate” his internal and external policies.
South Korea’s KBS TV said that the abolition of the Moon Jae-in government’s comprehensive real estate tax and denuclear power policies will be the domestic policy direction of the Yin Xiyue government. In addition, Yin Xiyue also said before the election that he would abolish the “Women’s Family Department” that emphasized “feminism”, and was worried that it would cause a controversy between the sexes in society. Yin Xiyue also promised to reform the presidential palace and the existing Blue House will disappear.
According to the “Korean National News”, Yin Xiyue’s first task after taking office is to bridge national differences and achieve coordinated governance of state affairs. In a phone call with Yin Xiyue on the 10th, Moon Jae-in emphasized that it is crucial to get rid of the divisions and contradictions generated in the election process and to achieve national unity. In addition, 172 of the 300 seats in the South Korean National Assembly are currently occupied by the Democratic Party, so Yin Xiyue will face a big situation towards Ono after taking office. According to “Korean National News”, if Yin Xiyue does not know how to compromise and unite, then it cannot be ruled out that he will lose the power to operate the state affairs and become a “vegetative president” in the early days of his administration.
The test that Yin Xiyue faces is to overcome the epidemic and solve the pressing problems facing the South Korean economy. South Korea’s “Chosun Ilbo” said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to soaring international energy prices, South Korea’s economy is highly dependent on overseas energy, and rising international oil prices may have a fatal blow to South Korea’s economy. In addition, curbing inflation is also a difficult problem. If the economy goes down and prices skyrocket, people’s livelihood will be difficult.
“Fast” highlights “firm”?
At 10 a.m. on the 10th, just 5 hours after winning the election, Yin Xiyue had a phone call with US President Biden. Not only did the call come ahead of his phone call with current President Moon Jae-in, but it also forced a delay in his scheduled visit to Hyeonchungwon National Temple in Seoul. Perhaps in order to avoid being accused of “disrespectful etiquette”, a source deliberately told the South Korean media that Yin Xiyue originally planned to have a phone call with Biden on the 11th, but at the request of the United States, the call was made earlier on the morning of the 10th.
The Yonhap News Agency said that it is worth noting that compared with the time when previous president-elects have spoken with US presidents, this time the South Korea and the US are “fast” calls, which are intended to highlight the “unbreakable” alliance between South Korea and the United States. According to South Korea’s “Asian Economy”, South Korea and the United States have been promoting Biden to visit South Korea when he goes to Japan to attend the G4 summit in May. If Biden visits South Korea as scheduled, it will be the fastest South Korea-US summit meeting held by previous South Korean governments after taking office. Since the early days of her candidacy, Yin Xiyue has repeatedly emphasized that the consolidation of the South Korea-US alliance is the top priority of diplomacy.
Yang Xiyu, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, said in an interview with a Global Times reporter on the 10th that the security alliance with the United States is far from sufficient to ensure South Korea’s security system. A country must seek a balance and handle its relations with all relevant countries. achieve sustainable and stable national security. He believes that in the next five years, South Korea will face a very important strategic decision-when the United States increases pressure on South Korea to “choose sides” between China and the United States, tying South Korea to the chariot of its “Indo-Pacific strategy”, How should South Korean policymakers choose? Whether it is willing to be the “bridgehead” of the United States or choose an independent defense policy will determine South Korea’s future.
“Sade” means “storm”
“Joining the Group of Four and deploying THAAD in the future will become the eye of the storm in China-South Korea relations,” Yonhap News Agency reported on the 10th. If the foreign policy of the Moon Jae-in administration was an attempt to overcome the increasingly fierce strategic competition between China and the United States If there is a balance between China and the United States in the environment, then Yin Xiyue is likely to turn her focus to the United States after taking office. Joining the Four-Power Alliance and deploying THAAD will be an important test bed for the new South Korean government’s foreign policy.
During the general election, Yin Xiyue declared that the THAAD system would be deployed additionally and that the “Three Nos Policy” of the Moon Jae-in government would be abolished, that is, the South Korean side would no longer deploy a new THAAD system, would not join the US missile defense system (MD), and would not join the U.S. missile defense system (MD). Seek a “South Korea-US-Japan military alliance”. After South Korea deployed THAAD during the Park Geun-hye era, China implemented a series of countermeasures.
According to Yonhap News Agency, China has always believed that the Group of Four is a “small group” created to contain China, and there has been a huge turmoil between China and South Korea over the THAAD issue. Due to the confrontation between the peoples, this year, which marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and South Korea, may become a year of comprehensive retrogression in China-ROK relations.
On the 10th, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said at a regular press conference that China congratulates Mr. Yin Xiyue on his election as the new president of South Korea. He said that China and South Korea are inseparable neighbors and important cooperative partners that cannot be separated from each other. We are willing to work with the ROK side to take the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations as an opportunity to promote the healthy and stable development of bilateral relations and better benefit the two peoples.
“The deployment of THAAD is one of the most important obstacles in China-ROK relations, and it once had a huge impact on the relationship between the two countries.” Lu Chao, dean of the Institute of American and East Asian Studies at Liaoning University, told the Global Times reporter on the 10th that South Korean politicians and The common people know that what THAAD brings to South Korea is not “more security”, but “great damage” to economic interests.
South Korea’s “Asian Economy” said that Yin Xiyue’s lack of governance experience was exposed in the televised debate during the sprint stage of the election. In the face of various diplomatic problems, he was more reciting the speech prepared for him by the election team. Years of experience in the prosecution system made it easy for him to see things in black and white. His remarks on the additional deployment of THAAD may pose a huge challenge to China-South Korea relations.
Yang Danzhi, an expert on international issues at the Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times reporter on the 10th that after Yin Xiyue came to power, South Korea will become more conservative in its national security policy, and does not rule out the possibility of strengthening its armaments. However, if South Korea additionally deploys THAAD and handles China-South Korea relations with a confrontational mindset, it will be detrimental to South Korea’s own development. Therefore, far-sighted politicians must be cautious.