The Chinese Communist Party has deepened its alliance with Russia, making the situation in the Indo-Pacific tense. Against this background, Xi Jinping visited Zhanjiang’s southern theater navy on April 11, and his words and deeds were unusual.
The Southern Theater Navy is the former South China Sea Fleet of the Communist Party of China. Yao Cheng, former lieutenant colonel of the CCP Navy Command, analyzed to NTDTV that Xi Jinping has rarely been in the army over the years.
Yao Cheng heard that the South China Sea Fleet is currently grasping the equipment very tightly. Judging from Xi Jinping’s visit to the South China Sea to meet cadres above the division and government personnel, Yao Cheng believes that Xi’s purpose is to move the Philippines. He analyzed that because Taiwan cannot be moved, the communist army has discussed it many times, and the chances of winning against Taiwan are very small. If Beijing does not want to go to war directly with the United States, it will kill chickens for monkeys to prevent the countries around the South China Sea from further cooperating with the United States. , will choose the Philippines closest to the United States to start.
Yao Cheng mentioned that Qin Gang, Foreign Minister of the Communist Party of China, is scheduled to visit the Philippines from April 21 to 23. Qin Gang’s trip is not to improve Sino-Philippine relations, because it cannot be improved. People do this, and if you do this, you will be beaten, it is a threat.”
But some observers believe that Xi Jinping actually dare not do anything.
According to the official Xinhua News Agency of the Communist Party of China, Xi Jinping stated in his speech at the Naval Office of the Southern Theater Command that “we must persist in thinking and handling military issues from a political perspective, carry out military struggles firmly and flexibly, improve the ability to respond to complex situations in a timely and appropriate manner, and resolutely defend our country’s territorial sovereignty and Maritime rights and interests, and strive to maintain the overall stability of the surrounding area.”
“Ming Pao” recently published a commentary article signed by Sun Jiaye, saying that Xi Jinping rarely said such words when he inspected the army in the past. What he said to the navy in the southern theater this time is really worth pondering.
Sun Jiaye further analyzed that when Xi Jinping said “insist on thinking and handling military issues from a political perspective”, he meant to warn the generals not to just think about fighting, but also to think about issues from a diplomatic and overall perspective. The South China Sea Fleet is mainly responsible for the defense of the South China Sea. And the navies of Western countries such as the United States, Japan, Europe and Australia have the most opportunities to “deal with”. If the generals have no political acumen, they may miss important things. Xi Jinping demanded that “military struggle” be both “firm” and “flexible”, which means that if you can fight, you will fight, and if you should retreat, you will retreat. Xi Jinping confessed that the army “maintains the stability of the overall situation in the surrounding area”. This sentence is really meaningful and explains the What exactly is flexible military struggle?
Xi Jinping proposed the so-called century-old change, and when he visited Russia, he urged Putin to work together to bring about the century-old change. This was considered to be a signal that China and Russia formed an evil axis to challenge the free world. This also heated up the situation in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. The United States has deployed intensively in the Indo-Pacific region for more than a year, which has contributed to the reconciliation between Japan and South Korea and the return of the Philippines. In particular, the Philippines opened four additional military bases to the U.S. military to help the U.S. connect the first island chain together. One of the military bases is only 400 kilometers away from Taiwan, allowing the U.S. to counter the CCP in multiple directions in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. In addition, the United States and the Philippines are currently conducting the largest military exercises in history.
However, many scholars also pointed out that Beijing is just talking. China’s economy is in recession, social anxiety is increasing day by day, and the autocratic system is like sitting on the crater of a volcano. Without the support of the people, the CCP dare not go to war with any country.
Pierre-Antoine Donnet, the author of “China-US Rivalry” and other books, once analyzed that when the crisis in the Taiwan Strait emerged in August last year, Xi Jinping’s deepest fear after the 20th National Congress lies at home, including China’s economic recession and population decline. Social turmoil, these challenges may shake Xi Jinping and the CCP regime. In this context, no matter how much Beijing bluffs, it should not dare to invade Taiwan, because Xi Jinping understands that the United States will definitely cooperate with its Indo-Pacific allies to deal with it, and he will definitely end in defeat. , and after losing, the Chinese Communist Party is bound to disintegrate.
Combined with the analysis of experts and scholars, Xi Jinping’s emphasis on the South China Sea Fleet to be flexible in military struggle and “maintain the overall stability of the surrounding area” may have the purpose of appeasing internally and preventing national sentiment from shaking the foundation of the regime.