Zanardi Landi’s analysis “Safety and economy It will be a disaster for us”

the interview

If there is a person who knows Russia well, the mentality of his people and is able to accurately analyze the geopolitical and economic implications of the invasion of Ukraine for our country as well, that is Antonio Zanardi Landi. Friulano di Udine, a life in the service of Italian diplomacy, was ambassador to Moscow from 2010 to 2013 and from the height of his experience he launches a sort of warning to sailors: the consequences of the war will be very heavy.

Ambassador gave himself an explanation as to why Vladimir Putin decided on such a large-scale invasion?

«I am not able to answer this question and, honestly, I think it is impossible for anyone in the West to guess the reasons for the acceleration given by the Russian president in the last 48 hours. I think, however, that I was able to understand the reasons that led to the crisis starting from the massing of troops on the southern border of Russia and the dispatch of soldiers to Belarus ».

Can you explain them to us?

«First of all, I would like to clarify that I do not justify Putin’s choices in any way. That said, I am convinced that the Russian moves are somewhat understandable. Putin and many of his compatriots, in fact, feel a sense of encirclement which may be wrong, but which exists and must be taken into consideration ».

Can you explain it better?

“I am speaking of a sentiment that derives first of all from how the potential enlargement of NATO to Ukraine would have represented the Alliance’s sixth enlargement to the east. And the Russians argue that in the past they have obtained guarantees – verbal but in any case such – from the Americans, the British and the Germans, of non-enlargement of NATO. To this, then, is added the fact that Moscow has never accepted the installation of anti-missile batteries in Poland, Bulgaria and Romania because – it is the theory – they alter the strategic balance between Russia and the Atlantic Pact ».

There is more?

“Yup. NATO spends as a whole, on defense, twenty-two times as much as Moscow invests, so the Russians feel somehow overwhelmed by the Alliance and, obviously, by the United States. In addition, the communication of the last few weeks has certainly not improved the situation ».

Which, however, does not explain why Putin has decided to attack now …

“Exactly: I am unable to understand what led to the escalation and above all why Putin deliberately gave up a legal and political basis such as that of the 2015” Minsk 2 “agreements. Those pacts, after all, represented a basis for negotiations in favor of the Russians which took their concerns into account, provided for a special autonomy for the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk and on which many Western countries had also expressed themselves in favor ”.

What can NATO do right now?

«Very little and the risks, however, are very high. What I see, in any case, is the rise not of a new iron curtain, but at least of a strong net. It will be increasingly difficult to work, trade and dialogue with the Russians. This war marks the defeat of those in Italy and in Europe who thought that Russia was an ineluctable partner, even a cultural one ”.

And we pay the bill too given the strong dependence on Russian energy sources …

“Italy and Germany in the first place, that’s right, but for us it’s a disaster. The increases will run the risk of having to use most of the resources of the NRP to contain energy bills. The biggest damage, on the other hand, is in terms of loss of security because, apart from the Balkans, we had lived in peace in Europe for over 70 years up to now ».

Is there a risk of an axis between Russia and China which, not surprisingly, said it understood Moscow’s fears?

“No, I don’t think it’s convenient for either the Russians or the Chinese. It is true that Beijing did not condemn the invasion of Ukraine with the same force as the West, but in Munich it defended the territorial integrity of Kiev. It is better for the Chinese to continue to increase collaboration with Russia, which, moreover, in a real political and military axis would take on the role of a sort of junior partner of Beijing, but also to maintain an intermediate position between Moscow and the West ». –

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