Of Laura Bonadies e Stefania Arcudi
Tokyo one step away from historic highs. In Piazza Affari Eni is down after the accounts. Euro/dollar slightly declining. Little moving oil. Spread stable in the 150 point area, ten-year yield rises
4′ reading
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) – Le European stock exchanges the last session of the week began on a positive note, despite the prudence expressed by the ECB on Thursday regarding future rate cuts. The macroeconomic data are not discouraging either: again on Thursday, the European Commission reduced its GDP growth estimates for the Eurozone, after +0.5% in 2023, it should continue this year at 0.8% and rise more decisively next year by 1.5%. In November Brussels estimated 1.2% and 1.6% respectively. Same script for Italian GDP: growth of 0.7% expected in 2024 and +1.2% next year. In November it estimated 0.9% and 1.2%.
Thus they travel in progress the FTSE MIB of Milan, driven by the rally of Unipol e Unipolsai after the takeover bid, the CAC 40 of Paris and the DAX 40 of Frankfurt. Also goodAEX of Amsterdam, the FT-SE 100 of London and theIBEX 35 of Madrid. Still on the macro front, investors’ eyes are focused on American producer prices which will be announced in the early afternoon. Added to this are the quarterly publications which in Italy feature the industrial sector as protagonists. On the Asian front, the Japanese benchmark Nikkei index closed higher, approaching the all-time record of 38,915.87 set on December 29, 1989, shortly before a collapse in stock and property prices ushered in an era of slow and uncertain growth . In America, the good performance of the stock markets continues with the S&P closing with an increase of 0.6%, exceeding the historic high set last week.
Wall Street at historic highs
US futures fell after Wall Street stocks set another record following mixed reports on the US economy. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% on February 15, surpassing the all-time high set last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% and the Nasdaq composite added 0.3%. Treasury yields fell in the bond market after a report showed U.S. retailers’ sales fell more than economists expected last month. This helped boost hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later in the year.
UnipolSai observed specially, Stellantis is still running
Coming to the individual titles, special attention was paid to Piazza Affari Unipolsai after the takeover bid launched by the subsidiary Unipol for a price of 2.7 euros per share which incorporates a premium of 12.6% compared to yesterday’s official share price which saw the stock close at -0.42% at 2.39 euros per share. Still good Stellar , which further updates the historical highs, after the CEO’s reassurances on the Italian factories. On the rise Tenaris while opposite front for Eni which drops after the 2023 accounts. The oil group closes 2023, with «volatility of the scenario characterized by the decline in prices of Brent oil (-5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022) and gas (decreased by 57% in the European market) » with a 66% drop in net profit to 4.74 billion and a 38% drop in adjusted net profit to 8.3 billion.
Spread stable in the 150 point area, ten-year yield rises
The spread between BTp and Bund remains at 150 basis points at the opening of the session. The yield differential between the benchmark ten-year BTp (Isin IT0005560948) and the German equivalent maturity marked a first position in line with the closing: in yesterday’s session the spread also temporarily fell to the 149 area, marking the lowest since the end of January. The yield on the 10-year Italian bond rose slightly to 3.88% from 3.85% at yesterday’s closing.
Euro/dollar down slightly, oil flat
On the currency, the euro/dollar exchange rate stood at 1.0762 (1.0756 on the day before), the euro/yen at 161.688 and the dollar/yen at 150.213 (150.26 yesterday).
Gas is at 24.7 euros per MWh (-0.8%), while as regards oil, the WTI in April stands at 77.58 dollars per barrel (-0.01%) and the Brent in April to 82.77 dollars (-0.01 percent).
Nikkei near highest since 1989
The Japanese benchmark index NIKKEI 225 it is approaching the all-time record of 38,915.87 set on December 29, 1989, shortly before a collapse in stock and real estate prices ushered in an era of slow and uncertain growth. In fact, the Tokyo Stock Exchange ended the last session of the week with a plus sign, reaching the highest levels in 34 years, after the record on Wall Street, and with purchases focusing on technology. The Nikkei reference index marks an increase of 0.86%, to 38,487.24, and an addition of 329 points. The Japanese business center follows the consolidation of US stock indices and data on the surprise contraction of GDP in Japan in the fourth quarter, a dynamic which according to analysts could lengthen the current ultra-expansionary monetary policy of the Japanese Central Bank ( Boy).
Japanese economy in technical recession
New signs of weakness in the Japanese economy, which it entered recession in the last quarter of 2023. Efforts to support growth at higher levels have had limited success, undermined by weak private investment and consumer spending. Changes to tax-free investment account rules contributed in part to the rise in stock prices. The yen’s weakness attracted bargain hunters and Japanese markets also benefited from the shift in investors away from Chinese markets.
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Stefania Arcudi
Radiocor editor