Zero taxes for those who have children. It is the shock proposal that the government is thinking of to combat the falling birth rate, according to what reported this morning by Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti al Sheet. An idea as disruptive as it is vague at the moment. “Present a “110 percent” model family bonus within the year designed for parents with children: families made up of two children will not pay taxes”, is the heart of Giorgetti’s reported resolution, according to which the executive it is calling for “a political proposal for the future that starts from what is our deepest crisis”. But what would the government’s idea consist of, or more properly its guardian of the accounts, and how much is new compared to the projects already announced when the starting ribbon was cut? We see.
Not just a single check
Sources close to the Economy Minister confirm a Open that the intent, at the moment, is essentially political: that of giving a signal, by throwing a stone into the pond, on the need to invest massively in the birth rate, because “without children there is no future”. Details and numbers will come later (at the headquarters or in view of the next budget law, I understand). This would explain the press release, ambitious but lacking in details. Yet some element – between the lines of the resolutions of Giorgetti and his Northern League government colleagues who replied to him – can already be glimpsed. The first and most important: after an initial intervention of a retributive nature on the main existing instrument – with the increase in the monthly amounts of the single allowance for parents with medium-low incomes – the government is now thinking of a new and broader plan, fully “his”, based on tax leverage. In short, the earnings for families would come directly in the form of less taxes to pay.
The undersecretary of the Northern League Massimo Bitonci explained it, complete with numbers, even if it is not clear to what extent his proposal and that of Giorgetti are currently aligned. «To encourage the birth rate, it becomes necessary to reduce taxation for families with one or more dependent children. This does not mean abandoning the single allowance but, in addition to this, a deduction of 10,000 euros a year should be reintroduced for each dependent child (now 950 euros up to the age of 21) up to the end of their studies, including university studies, for all households without income limits”. This was also confirmed by his party colleague Massimo Garavaglia, who heads the Senate Finance Commission, according to whom «the proposal by Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti would reintroduce a deduction of 10,000 euros a year for each dependent child, for all and without income limits, until the end of the course of study. A measure that would be added to the single check, however favoring the most numerous nuclei ».
Children dependent on the state?
Assuming and not granting that such a measure is sustainable, “for all and without income limits”, for the state coffers – or rather, awaiting enlightenment on the sources of funding for such a plan – the words of the two must be deciphered Northern League emissaries to try to “ground” their impact on a typical family. The “deduction of 10 thousand euros a year” for each dependent child – actually starting from the second, is one of the few points made clear at the moment by Giorgetti – can hardly be understood as a direct saving for (future) parents of 10 thousand euros (the public debt already at danger levels would go crazy). Instead, it can be inferred that Bitonci and Garavaglia allude to an annual tax deduction on a tax ceiling of 10 thousand euros. Assuming the application of the “classical” rate for expenses for dependent children of 19%, this would therefore mean a net saving of 1,900 euros per year per family.
Translated, just over 158 euros more available every month. Which would be added, as government officials are keen to point out, to those paid by INPS in the form of a single allowance: from 50 to 175 euros per month, for children up to 18 years of age, depending on their income status. assets (Isee) of the requesting parent. In short, if this were the path taken by the government, every child starting from the second could be “worth” in terms of higher disposable income from just over 200 to around 333 euros per month. Enough to finally give the shock to too many Italian non-parents, or to those who stop at just one child for budgetary reasons? Difficult to say, and premature given the vagueness of the state of the proposals. But the comparison can indeed be made, instead, with the pre-election projects of the majority – or rather, of its leading party.
Meloni’s government program and the Lega-Fdi derby
A radical intervention on the issue of the birth rate through the fiscal lever should actually sound like a sensational novelty up to a certain point, at least for right-center voters. In fact, this proposal already appeared, albeit under other guises, in the government program of Brothers of Italy. Moreover, it was the cardinal intention of opening. “Progressive introduction of the family quotient, i.e. a taxation system that takes into account the number of family members”, was the first idea that appeared under mission 1 of the program – “Support for the birth rate and the family”. Which continued by targeting the “increase in the amounts for the single and universal allowance: up to 300 euros per month for the first year of each child, up to 260 euros from the second year of life up to the age of 18 and maintenance of current allowance up to the age of 21”. In short, the tip leaked today in the public debate by the League has all the air of a “variant on the theme” with respect to the backbone of the reform planned by the party of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. The introduction of the family quotient would itself be a powerful tax shock capable of generating substantial benefits for families as the number of children increases.
Basically, the idea is to recalibrate the calculation of taxation for families, and not for single parents, attributing an increasing tax discount ratio with respect to the number of children. In France, where the system was implemented in the most organic and effective way – so much so as to allow the birth rate to be raised close to the reproduction rate, to 1.83 (Italy is stuck at 1.24) – the system also provides for the elimination of any patrimonial consideration in the calculation of taxes: the only guiding parameter is that of the cumulative income of the two parents. In this way, French families receive on average between 200 and 350 euros in tax benefits for each dependent child. Is it savings of this kind that Fratelli d’Italia aspires to implement – budget permitting – its program? If so, today’s proposal from the League would suddenly pale. The derby between the two government allies-rivals to compete for the challenge of fighting the falling birth rate has just begun.
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