After a heat pump installation record in 2023, the heating trade is expecting significantly fewer devices to be installed this year. The industry sees customer uncertainty as the main reason.
The German plumbing and heating engineering trade is expecting a significant decline in the installation of heat pumps this year.
The Central Association for Sanitary, Heating and Air Conditioning (ZVSHK) sees the main reason as being uncertainty among customers regarding the future of energy supply.
“If we’re lucky, we might manage between 180,000 and 200,000 devices,” said association president Michael Hilpert to the German Press Agency. The 500,000 devices targeted by the federal government for 2024 are “illusory, even next year”.
According to its own information, the industry installed well over 300,000 devices in 2023, more than ever before. At a “heat pump summit” in November 2022, the Federal Ministry of Economics and representatives from trade, industry, housing and energy sectors formulated a common goal of 500,000 new heat pumps per year from 2024.
The devices, which are preferably powered by green electricity, should play an important role in achieving climate goals in the building sector.
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Association President: “People are unsettled”
However, consumers are unsettled and are holding back from investing, the association found. “Customers say: Yes, what is happening now in municipal heat planning? Is there a neighborhood solution coming? Is district heating coming? Is hydrogen coming?” says Hilpert.
Is district heating coming? Is hydrogen coming?”,
This is still completely uncertain in many municipalities. In addition, the future electricity price is unclear. Because of these questions, it is currently difficult for SHK companies to advise customers.
Accordingly, the business expectations for the next three months are assessed by the SHK guilds to be much more pessimistic than a year ago, said ZVSHK Managing Director Helmut Bramann. This was shown by the results of the most recent spring survey, in which more than 2,300 companies took part.
Greentech heating: heat pump from Vaillant. Photo manufacturer
Greentech Heating: Negative mood forecast for heat pumps.
“Both the bathroom business and the heating sector receive a clearly negative mood forecast.” The customer service business, however, is viewed optimistically.
The industry is “still doing well”
Overall, the industry is “still doing well,” said Hilpert. According to the survey, around 52 percent of companies stated that they were overloaded or at full capacity. A year ago this value was 67 percent. A good 14 percent said they employed more people than a year before. A good 57 percent of companies reported vacancies.
Greentech heat pump geothermal heating Photo: Vaillant
In spring 2023, this value was still 68 percent. “Employees are most wanted for the commercial and technical sector,” it said. Only 36 percent of companies are affected by delivery bottlenecks. A year ago, more than 85 percent complained about this. “The availability of goods is back to the level it was before the pandemic.”
Central Association for Heating and Air Conditioning Technology celebrates its anniversary
The ZVSHK represents 23,000 guild businesses and sees itself as a professional organization for a total of around 48,000 craft businesses in the plumbing, heating and air conditioning sectors with a total of almost 400,000 employees. Last year, according to ZVSHK estimates, the industry’s sales rose by a good seven percent to 61.7 billion euros.
In 2024 the association will celebrate its 75th anniversary. The association was founded in Wiesbaden in 1949 as the “Central Association of Plumbers, Plumbers, Coppersmiths and Central Heating Engineers”.