“We need to relate to the Russia that exists, not the one we wish there was. And It’s Putin’s Russia. The response cannot be to send troops or make other moves that lead to escalation.” He says so himself, in an interview with the newspaper The print the authoritative American analyst Charles Kupchan, former consultant to President Obama, who, on several occasions, especially from the pages of Foreign Affairshad invited the US and EU to rethink their approach towards Moscow. “The window of opportunity for a Ukrainian victory it closed last summer with attempts to retake Donbass and the South”, explains Kupchan who underlines that even the allocation of new aid will not allow Kiev to turn the tide of the conflict. We therefore need to “discuss with the Ukrainians how to end the conflict and my best guess is that these discussions are already started behind the scenes“.
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“The sanctions, let’s be honest, they didn’t workRussia has reshaped its supply chain by turning to other partners: China, India, Central Asia, Türkiye, Georgia,” notes the analyst. Looking to the near future, Kupchan shows great optimism, regardless of what the outcome of the American elections will be. “I don’t think Trump would be that irresponsible as to drag the US out of NATO“, he claims. “Of course I expect a clear cut in aid to Ukraine and negotiations with Moscow“, he adds. Relations between the EU and the US are good, Kupchan notes, but the European countries are “in one rethinking phase of their role.” And this, all things considered, is positive. Europe is thinking about the dysfunctionality and reliability of America and the need to increase what Macron calls strategic autonomy”. “If Europe invests more in security and defense it will put itself in an advantageous situation (…). if Biden is re-elected he will be a more solid partner, if Trump wins Europe will be able to walk alone. The EU always moves slowly but the inertia is favourable”. However, there are also shadows. “Meloni is a very pleasant surprise: pro-Atlantic, in favor of supporting Kiev. However, let’s monitor France and Germany, what happens to Le Pen who imposes herself? And what happens if the SPD and CDU retreat further? If the anchoring to European principles weakens in Berlin and Paris or in the Nordic countries, then we would enter a new dangerous phase.”
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