The Russo-Ukrainian war lasted 15 months. On May 19, the British think tank “Royal United Military Institute” (RUSI) published a research report stating that the Russian military has changed its combat methods and poses a major threat to Ukraine, which is preparing to launch a counteroffensive.
The 30-page report reminds that it is a misunderstanding to think that the Russian military is too vulnerable, and that understanding the changes in the Russian military is crucial for Ukraine and NATO.
The report lists how the Russian army learned from failures. For example, because the command center was easily locked and attacked by the “Hippocampus” rocket, the Russian army command center has now strengthened the bunker; the Russian army has improved the T-80 and T-72 main tanks The explosive armored defenses made it more difficult for Western heat-seeking missiles to detect these tanks; the T-55 and T-62 tanks that Russia put on the battlefield were once ridiculed as antiques, but the report says that these tanks are actually They pose a “significant threat” on the battlefield because the Russian army does not use them as combat vehicles, but instead uses them to provide fire support for other infantry armored vehicles.
The Russian military’s electronic warfare is still strong, and Ukraine loses about 10,000 drones every month.
As for Russia’s switch to the “human wave” tactic in Bakhmut, this report believes that this is a cruel but rational response. The human wave tactic means that the Russian army deliberately sends out many light infantry groups to let the Ukrainian army attack and expose their own positions, and then the Russian army will send more experienced and better equipped troops into battle. The current problem of the Russian army is that the number of troops is large but the quality is not good. This kind of crowd tactics is suitable for the Russian army.
The report believes that the Russian army is constantly correcting defects, but this correction is still passive. Therefore, as long as the Ukrainian army breaks through the Russian army’s defense and forces the Russian army to move, the Russian army may soon lose coordination.
Western allies advise Ukraine not to underestimate the Russian military. At the same time, “Light Media” published an analysis of an article signed by Quantum Leap, pointing out that when Putin looks back now, he will find that he has fallen into a trap dug by Xi Jinping. Before the start of the war, Beijing, which has always been rich and powerful, promised to provide assistance. As a result, after Russia and Ukraine fell into a war of attrition, how could the CCP consume the powerful US-European alliance? Continuously throwing money at the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield is an unimaginable catastrophe for the CCP, which is facing a domestic economic collapse. As a result, Putin is crying without tears. In the past six months, Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia, Li Zhanshu’s visit to Russia, and the Minister of National Defense’s visit to Russia, etc. And so on, it is Beijing’s way of “opening a blank check” to appease Putin.
The article said that the biggest variable in China-Russia relations now is that Ukraine has shown Russia’s true strength. This has made the CCP no longer afraid of Russia, and even wants to be the leader of the alliance between China and Russia. However, Putin’s counterattack in the Jedi must not be underestimated. Ability. The article believes that Putin will never endure humiliation in silence, he is waiting for the opportunity to fight back, and the crack in Sino-Russian relations will cause subtle changes in other international relations. At the end of the article, I asked why the Ukrainian counteroffensive has been sung publicly for several months. What major new situation did the United States and Europe discover? Or are you working on a larger strategic goal? Only time will tell.
Speaking of the delay in the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Associated Press quoted an anonymous U.S. official on the 19th as saying that Ukraine has actually launched a preliminary counteroffensive plan. The recent expansion of the occupied area in Bakhmut is part of the counteroffensive. A large part of the reason why there has been no large-scale counterattack has been due to weather problems. The permafrost has not completely dried after thawing, which makes it easy for tracked vehicles to sink. However, the official said that he believes that a major counteroffensive will soon begin.
But there are also views that Ukraine has been setting up a maze of counterattack time in order to make the Russian army feel uneasy in the atmosphere of wolf coming and be forced to be on alert for a long time.
At the same time, Ukraine continues to expand and strengthen its allies and try to obtain more military aid. The latest development is that Biden has clearly stated to the leaders of the G7 group that the United States agrees to a third country to deliver F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. The F-16 has been a core requirement for Zelensky. The green light given by the United States this time is a major development for Ukraine.
In addition, according to the Japan Broadcasting Association (NHK) report, Zelensky departed from the airport in Saudi Arabia in the early morning of the 20th for Japan on a special plane of the French government. He is scheduled to arrive in Hiroshima in the afternoon to attend the G7 summit on the 21st.
This is Zelensky’s first visit to Asia since the Russian invasion last February, and he is expected to seek more military aid for Ukraine and help from non-G7 countries such as India. Zelensky may also hold separate talks with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and President Biden.