Con Xi Jinping young septuagenarian in his third and solid mandate (a power that no one in Beijing had since Mao Zedong’s time) the Chinese finally it can play the international role that the status of second global power imposes on it. Pandemic and wars are accidents of history, the fate of a nation that wants to achieve modern socialism is on other horizons.
This can be seen from the prudent foresight with which Xi Jinping is moving, on the front of war in Ukrainein order to stop the conflict and not as the West does to foment it, as demonstrated by the recent phone call from the Chinese leader to Volodymyr Zelensky. This is enough to place the Asian giant in blatant contrast with the consolidated strategies (and plots) of global hegemony carried out by the States United. A revolutionary novelty: Chinese-style multipolarity against the consensus of Washington cemented over years of unchallenged dominance.
An expert friend of Chinese who has lived there for twenty years, speaks Mandarin and is well versed in the politics, culture and business of the Dragon, points out to me that the assumption from which one usually starts is, however, wrong. That is, according to him, China has a position today advantaged compared to America. Overall view, of course, not from the backyard.
In the new geopolitical scenario created after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Usa on the economic front they actually have fewer opportunities to offer than many non-aligned nations, i.e. outside the small club formed by Europe & NATO where almost all members are rich and armed. Business first, political consensus follows, Washington gets to the point, explains the expert: “If at a certain point the pact no longer works, the United States they exclude you from financial flows, impose sanctions and perhaps block your foreign exchange reserves (in dollars). This is why trade in the world is growing yuan”.
But we don’t know how far in the future, the day when Beijing will start asking its old and new allies (there won’t be a few between now and 2050 out of the 193 in the United Nations) to “choose” a side, as the United States with their allies, then the Dragon it could lose any potential geopolitical influence which in the meantime he will have managed to conquer, not only in Africa, and not only with the Belt & Road Initiative. In short free trade but no blackmail.
Currently America has a strong power of “soft” on the international economic front (not to mention nuclear warheads). It works briskly, neither ethically nor ideologically. Washington says: you country X, do you use the dollar for your trade? At that time be careful not to override because it will hurt you. Do you want to export your goods to America without paying duties? Sorry, impossible, even if the current president who is running for re-election at the age of 80 is not, the Republican party practices protectionism to the max. And so on.
And how do we Italians face such scenarios? When in Italy even the new right-wing government (provided that the financial conspiracy against the country “weak link in the euro” does not start sooner) realizes that it is not very wise, and above all not in our authentic interests, to continue to be an obsequious pawn and aligned with America, Rome will perhaps be able to avoid suffering the effect boomerang of the anti-American and anti-Western revanchism that is slowly, but with strength and awareness, mounting in the rest of the world.
The new anti-American alliances of the BRICS+ (Brazil, Russia, China, South Africa – while Riyadh, Ankara and Cairo have already engaged in the accession process) will take time to develop. But the road is traced. The idea that the dollar in the future is destined to lose its role as the single currency of reference in global trade and finance – it will be joined by the Chinese yuan in a geo-economic area with population and GDP of enormous importance – is not only the nightmare of Washington, but it is the geo-economic factor crucial of the next few years. Possibly refraining from partisanship or south-curve slogans propounded by those who are on the side and have no intention of understanding where the world is headed.
The geopolitics of Xi Jinping, in his new role as leader of dozens of countries that do not want to be aligned with the West, combined with the fact that the Russia however go with Putin is destined in the future to have to rotate as a satellite of China, it will unleash with automatic inevitability the worst impulses on the part of the deep state neocons nestled in the State Department and in the White House (whoever is the US president).
Someone will then ask: but is there an alternative to global war? Yes, for example that the governments concerned they sit around a table, as at the G20 or as in Helsinki in 1975 – in any case not under the presidency of a Stoltenberg or whoever for him – in order to discuss, hearing everyone’s reasons, and prepare the structures of the New World Order in economic, security and of international cooperation. But there is a but: whoever is hegemonic will not give up.