Title: Uncertain Future: The Direction of the War in Ukraine
Subtitle: Increasing complexities in the Russo-Ukraine war raise questions about the role of China and the potential influence of the upcoming U.S. election
In recent weeks, Russia has gone through significant changes, leading many to question the future of the ongoing war in Ukraine. While the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed to yield desired results, focus now shifts towards the next steps and potential resolution for the conflict.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, the instigator of the war, possesses a staggering 5,977 nuclear warheads, the most among any country, making the situation increasingly alarming. Putin’s authority has been challenged as he embarks on a campaign to purge senior officers who he believes played a part in the recent rebellion by the Wagner Group, which brought shame to his regime.
Amidst uncertainties, the role of China in mediating the Russo-Ukraine war is becoming clear and crucial. China’s Special Envoy for Eurasian Affairs, Li Hui, has emerged as a key figure in China’s efforts to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine. Meanwhile, the United States‘ inability to bring Russia to the negotiating table makes it unlikely that they will act as a mediator.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has exhibited a strong determination to participate in the mediation of international conflicts, traditionally a role held by the United States. In a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Xi Jinping made China’s position clear and dispatched his special envoy, Li Hui, to mediate between Kiev and Moscow. Li Hui’s extensive relationship with the Kremlin adds weight to China’s potential influence in the resolution of the war.
However, the war’s trajectory remains uncertain, given the intricate political struggles and factors of change currently at play. Recent events, such as the defection of Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagnerian fighters, have challenged Putin’s authority, resembling a plot similar to mafia infighting.
Looking towards the next year, both Putin and Zelensky view the upcoming U.S. election as a pivotal point. Ukrainian concerns about President Donald Trump’s potential re-election arise due to his statements about resolving the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours, which further adds to their worries. The uncertainty surrounding the terms of an armistice, especially regarding territorial concessions, makes the possibility of negotiation under Trump’s auspices distressing for Ukraine.
As a result, Ukrainians express a greater preference for Xi Jinping to mediate the peace process due to doubts about Trump’s objective stance, given his past public support for Putin. Zelensky’s administration, fearing a withdrawal of NATO support funds if Trump is re-elected, focuses on gaining more fighter jets to strengthen Ukraine’s position.
Ukraine’s hopes for a steady counteroffensive are intertwined with the impending U.S. election. Ukrainian military and intelligence officials deem a clear military victory necessary for favorable negotiation outcomes and remain vigilant about potential future aggressions. However, due to the heavily fortified nature of the Russia-Ukraine frontline, a land-based counterattack is impractical, and Ukraine sees its best chance in an air attack, predicated on acquiring F-16 fighter jets.
While Ukraine seeks international support for these weapons, the U.S. reluctance to change its stance complicates their efforts. Although recent developments suggest a slight easing of restrictions, chronic U.S. reluctance has left Ukraine ill-prepared for an effective counteroffensive.
As the war in Ukraine continues, uncertainties persist regarding its future trajectory. China’s emerging role as a mediator and the potential impact of the U.S. election raise questions about the direction and resolution of the conflict.