The crucial agreement allowing the export of grain from Ukraine is set to expire on Monday if Russia does not agree to an extension. The last ship under the Black Sea agreement left the port of Odessa on Sunday, raising concerns about the future of Ukrainian grain exports. In a phone call with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed dissatisfaction with the agreement, stating that the obligations outlined in the memorandum between Russia and the UN had not been fulfilled. He also highlighted that the agreement’s main objective of supplying grains to countries in need, particularly in Africa, had not been realized.
This agreement, which was initially negotiated by Turkey and the UN after Russia’s war against Ukraine in July 2022, establishes procedures to ensure the safe export of grain from Ukrainian ports. It allows grain vessels to navigate a secure corridor in the Black Sea under the guidance of Ukrainian pilots and then pass through the Bosphorus Strait in northwestern Turkey to reach global markets. The deal has been instrumental in stabilizing world food prices and providing relief to developing countries reliant on Ukrainian exports.
The fate of the agreement now lies in Russia’s hands, as Moscow has repeatedly threatened to abandon the pact. Prior to its third renewal in May, the Kremlin had been evasive about continuing with the deal before agreeing to an extension at the last minute. Russia also temporarily suspended its participation in late October and early November 2022, citing drone strikes on the occupied Crimea city of Sevastopol. However, after mediation, Moscow eventually decided to rejoin the agreement for another 120 days.
The expiration of this agreement could have significant implications for global food prices and the availability of grain for countries in need. It remains to be seen whether Russia will agree to extend the deal or terminate its involvement altogether. Observers will be closely monitoring the situation and its potential impact on the agricultural and food sectors.