According to U.S. officials quoted by Reuters on the 12th, the intelligence information obtained by the United States shows that Russia is likely to lock in the invasion of Ukraine on the 16th, and the Russian-Ukrainian war seems to be about to start.
Even the one-hour phone call between Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin on the 12th did not bring any major changes to the unstable situation that has been going on for several weeks.
The Voice of Hope reporter interviewed Wu Jialong, a senior political and economic expert, and asked him to make the latest comments and analysis on the current Russian-Ukrainian crisis. His views are as follows:
At present, it seems that in response to Russia’s recent repeated requests to the United States to establish a safe border and buffer zone. After Russia’s formal proposal, although the United States did not immediately accept Russia’s request, it did not completely reject it, but proposed a plan “a new European disarmament agreement”.
Wu Jialong once again stated that the key point of Russia’s request: NATO should not pull Ukraine into it and withdraw its troops from Eastern European countries at the same time. These former Warsaw Pact countries were originally vassals of the Soviet Union and later joined NATO. Russia hopes that NATO will not deploy military forces in these countries, and Russia requires a buffer zone with NATO.
Wu Jialong said that the current response of the United States to this request is initially considered to be refusal and non-acceptance, but it is not a complete refusal. The US is now wrapping it up so that the two sides can discuss a new European disarmament deal. For example, the two sides not only withdraw their troops, but may also withdraw from agreements such as the deployment of intermediate-range missiles and missiles, so that each other has some more specific content that further restricts military expansion. That is, the US is going to repackage it as a European disarmament agreement.
In this way, Russia’s original request was rejected on the surface, but its security needs were considered, and now Russia has also stated that it will study and consider the “correct case” proposed by Biden (rebut the proposal and propose other countermeasures). Wu Jialong said that this means that there is no despair in the diplomatic progress of the two sides. If there is no despair, then there will be no action for a while.
Wu Jialong believes that whether the United States is talking about February 16, or that the Beijing Winter Olympics will invade Ukraine after February 20, these are all superficial tough gestures. The real substantive discussions under the table have already begun. It was Russia who made the request, the U.S. made a “counter case”, and then Russia said it would reconsider.
Wu Jialong said that under such circumstances, as long as peace is not desperate, there is no reason to start fighting. Moreover, Putin did not say that he would start a fight, and complained that the United States and the United Kingdom had been raising the atmosphere, as if insisting that Russia would definitely invade Ukraine. But in this case, it doesn’t work. At present, the communication channel between the United States and Russia has not been closed, and the two sides can continue to negotiate by telephone or video. There is war tension, but the diplomatic mediation under the table and the process of groping for a final solution have already begun.
For Ukrainian President Zelensky to invite Biden to visit Ukraine, is it possible for Biden to accept the invitation? Wu Jialong believes that if Biden accepts it, it must go to Ukraine to sign a new European disarmament agreement with Putin. If the two sides reach an agreement in the end, it is possible. But the real mediation negotiations are just about to start, so he doesn’t think Biden will visit Ukraine for a while.
However, Wu Jialong also said that according to the current situation analysis, it does not mean that the war can be completely avoided, but that the two sides are exploring with diplomatic mediation, hoping to find a compromise solution to solve the security needs of both sides, then In the absence of despair, there should be no action for a while.
Unless both sides prove that the minimum peaceful solution and the need for peace have been broken, then it is possible to really go out and fight. But at present this peaceful solution or diplomatic mediation has not broken down, and the two sides are still in the process of bargaining. To put it bluntly, Russia clearly made his request, and NATO said, I cannot fully agree to you.
Wu Jialong did not shy away from saying that diplomatic mediation has its risks. Once the peaceful solution is broken, it is possible to take risks. But if there is a real fight, he believes that it will only be a small fight, a partial fight, and will not really launch a full-scale war to occupy Ukraine. Because if it does fight, Russia will prove that it is indeed a real threat to the West, and the price will be very serious, because NATO has to impose economic sanctions and financial sanctions to counteract and counterattack.
Wu Jialong’s conclusion is that Russia absolutely knows that if he really fights, the price will be very high, in fact, there is no need for this. Putin just hopes that after exerting pressure, he can get some results from the diplomatic negotiation table. He should have this plan. If he fights hard, he is not sure that he will win.
Wu Jialong said that frankly speaking, no matter winning or losing Russia, the price is very high. Putin is a person who is careful and should not be so reckless.