With this article Marco Minniti begins his collaboration with “Repubblica”. Former Minister of the Interior, Minniti is now president of the Leonardo Med-Or Foundation
In an unprecedented sequence, the Mediterranean has seen the most gigantic geopolitical upheaval of the last hundred years unfold. The almost contemporary realization of two ancient imperial dreams: the Russian one and the Turkish-Ottoman one. From Syria to Libya. With a surprised international community, bordering on impotence. We are talking about Trump’s US, seduced by America First and the conflict with Europe, increasingly distinct and distant from that sea considered secondary. And of a strange, divided Europe, almost struck in the heart by such reckless acceleration.
The American elections have given us a new America. And Biden’s presence at today’s EU summit is the most iconic sign of the great change. The Mediterranean cannot fail to benefit from this. A new picture of the ancient transatlantic link represents good news for that “mare nostrum” which over time has become less and less nostrum. Then there is the unexpected opportunity of the formation, after years of dramatic division and a bloody civil war, of a unitary government of Libya. Its parliamentary approval with an almost unanimous majority is certainly an important step.
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It is as if, for once, the commitment of the “man” (a “woman” Stephanie Williams) together with what Hegel called the “cunning of reason” had promoted a potential turnaround. Mind you, the challenge of the new Dbeiba government, happily and promptly met by Italy, is to make your wrists tremble. Maintain and strengthen the ceasefire. Free the country from foreign military presences. And what presences. The first, the Turkish one, declared. The result of a political and diplomatic agreement, formally signed by the parties during the most acute phase of the civil war.
The second, never declared but equally looming: that of Russia. With Wagner contractors, according to methods already tested in the Donbass. Turkey has had the crucial port of Misrata under a centuries-old concession. At the same time, Russian activism is very strong with the construction of the so-called “Putin’s wall” between Cyrenaica and Tripolitania. This is accompanied by the news of the closest Mig-29 base to the heart of Europe.
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If all this were not enough, there is, then, the theme of the dissolution of the internal militias, which have so far played a dominant role. And consequently the establishment of a unitary security and defense system for the whole of Libya. The first choices of the new government in the defense sector and the deafening silence of a weakened Haftar represent something more than a simple unknown. Then, in a scenario of dramatic pandemic emergency, a devastated country needs to be rebuilt. The temporal cadence is breathless. With the aim of bringing the country to the vote in December this year. Let’s be clear, the vote is not only the natural completion of a process of institutional reconstruction but it is indispensable for the stability of Libya. Easy to say. Difficult to do. As the recent past teaches.
The tensions expressed with the Tobruk Parliament on a constitutional and electoral path do not represent a good viaticum. But that’s the challenge. Leaving Libya alone today would be an unforgivable sin. It is up to Europe, in a renewed transatlantic harmony, to support the new Libyan government. Thus contributing to redesigning a new structure of the Mediterranean. At the moment in which we are preparing to reopen the negotiation of the treaty with Turkey, the EU has the political imperative to present a plan for the economic, social and institutional reconstruction of Libya. An important plan for the economic resources committed. Ambitious in its content and purpose. Negotiated with the new government, but above all able to speak to that large piece of the Libyan people who in recent years have looked to the Old Continent with confidence and are not resigned to the idea of a Russo-Turkish hegemony.
A Plan that puts traditional energy activity back to full capacity and together proposes a project for the use of renewable sources. A Plan that involves the countries of North Africa bordering Libya. Starting with the crucial Tunisia. That it contains a new pact for the governance of migratory flows, which, while respecting human rights, is hinged on the opening and promotion of humanitarian and legal channels and on a clear commitment to combat human trafficking. Finally, a Plan that supports governments in facing the challenge of the pandemic. Knowing that health security will be a dominant issue for all countries that rotate in the orbit of the enlarged Mediterranean. It’s about acting fast. Because if the Libyan “unexpected opportunity” of Memphis and Dbeiba were to fail, it would inevitably precipitate a division of Libya by spheres of influence. This would represent a dramatic setback for the whole of Europe. The Libyan collapse would risk a gigantic “domino effect”, which could hit other countries in North Africa. Europe cannot afford it. Because, never as now, its future is reflected in the waters of the Mediterranean.
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