Midterm (mid-term) elections are so-called because they take place in the middle of the presidential term.
What will be decided in the Midterm elections?
American voters are called to renew the 435 members of the House and a third of the 100 senators. In addition to these, 36 governors and a number of state-level offices, such as secretaries of state, are at stake. Even on them eyes are pinned, in view of the 2024 presidential elections, since these figures will supervise the electoral machine. In addition, referendums on abortion will be held in four states – California, Vermont, Kentucky and Michigan. Approximately 168 million Americans are called to the polls, but over 42 million have already expressed themselves thanks to early voting or by post, a possibility admitted by the majority of the 50 US states. The Democrats currently hold the majority in both arms of Congress, but the gap is very narrow in the Senate: they are 50 to 50, with the vote of Vice President Kamala Harris making the difference when needed. As for the House, there are 221 Democrats and 212 Republicans, with two vacant seats, and the polls are not good. It is enough for the Gop to win a handful of seats to change the situation in his favor. It would be a severe blow to President Joe Biden who would find himself as a “lame duck”, this is the expression, for the last two years in office, unable to advance his agenda. Without the control of the House and the Senate, in fact, the president’s party risks legislative paralysis.
Who is the favorite for the win?
Mid-term elections usually penalize the party that occupies the White House: since 1934 only two presidents, Roosevelt and Bush the son (in 2002), have won seats. Polls predict that Republicans will regain the House, with a probable red wave, their color. The fate of the Senate hangs on some head-to-head challenges in “battleground” states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, but even those in Wisconsin, New Hampshire and North Carolina appear to be uncertain. What pushes Republicans in favor is mainly Americans’ frustration with inflation, with rising gasoline and food prices, along with criticism of a democratic policy perceived as not severe enough with crime and immigration. In short, the old Clintonian adage “it’s the economy, stupid” has turned into “it’s inflation, stupid”, this time to the detriment of the Democrats who instead focused on other issues, in particular abortion, to defend their narrow majority at the Congress.
Midterm, from the Senate to the Chamber: here are all the challenges to be followed and considered strategic
Alberto Simoni
What time will the results arrive?
The first results are expected after 6pm East Coast time (one in the morning in Italy) but for the overall final results it may take several days, especially in some states. The first to close the polls is Georgia, excluding some areas in Kentucky and Indiana (not very indicative). There are over 2.5 million Early votes, the total number of eligible voters is 7.8 million. The results of the Northern counties will come first (Trump won in 2020). The last one at 1 is Alaska.
What are the issues that weigh on the vote?
Joe Biden, at the lowest in popularity (just over 40%), played the campaign by launching the message that democracy and rights are at stake (starting with abortion) and boasting the successes of his agenda on the welfare front. , the environment, education. If he loses even a room he risks becoming a lame duck for the remainder of the term. Republicans, on the other hand, rode skyrocketing inflation, recession fears and crime alarms, with Donald Trump king maker of many 2020 election deniers and ready to run for the third time in the White House. Inflation in the United States currently exceeds 8%, which is the highest figure in the last 40 years. The fact is not surprising when looking at the global economy. The increase in prices is 10% in Great Britain and as much as 11% in Europe.
Then there is the battle for the nominations of judges, less evident, but which is certainly fundamental to American politics, as the decision on abortion of the Supreme Court with a conservative majority has demonstrated in a sensational way. In response to the 200 federal judges appointed by Trump during his tenure, Biden has appointed 75 in these two years, surpassing the number of appointments made by both Trump and Obama in the same period. And to conservative appointments, the Democratic president has pitted against a record of appointments of women and people of color, such as the first African American Supreme Court judge, Ketanji Brown Jackson. But this activism would have a drastic setback in the event of a Democratic defeat in the Senate.
Finally, the issue of the abortion attack, which the Democrats hoped that, after the Supreme Court’s decision to revoke the constitutional right of choice for women, could be the trump card for them in these elections, which instead appear, according to to polls dominated by the concerns, and anger, of voters over the rise in prices, due to inflation and the energy crisis. In any case, voters in five states will also be called to vote in a referendum on abortion on Tuesday: in Michigan, California and Vermont to guarantee the right of reproductive freedom, in Kentucky and Montana instead to limit access to termination of pregnancy. . Since last June, Biden has kept repeating that a Congress with a larger dem majority could pass a law that nationally codifies and defends women’s right to choose. But instead a republican victory would advance the specter of bills, which some Republicans have already announced, to impose nationally the restrictions on access to abortion that have been imposed in dozens of republican-led states since June. .
What does Trump have to do with it?
Trump, who, according to some anticipations, should officially announce his descent on the field for the presidency in 2024 on November 14, has supported several candidates in the challenges still hanging in the balance. The victory of the army of Trumpian candidates, who believe that Biden’s election was not legitimate, and who have campaigned by propagating the “big lie”, the great Trumpian lie of the stolen elections, risks becoming a serious problem for democracy in 2024. Because many of these candidates will have roles, as governor or secretary of state, which will allow them to control, and influence, the electoral systems of the states in the upcoming elections. One of them, Jim Marchant, a candidate for secretary of state in Nevada, was very explicit: “When he is elected secretary of state, along with the other secretaries of state, we will fix things throughout the country, and President Trump will return to being president in 2024 “. The Republican victory in the House, especially if it brings to Congress many exponents of the Maga, the far-right movement inspired by the Trump principles of America First, could also have drastic consequences for the commitment of the United States to the side of Ukraine. “With a republican majority, Ukraine will no longer go even a penny”, thundered at a rally alongside Trump Marjorie Taylor Greene, the deputy close to the Qanon sect, who in criticizing the commitment alongside Kiev in recent months she often appeared to repeat arguments used by Moscow.
The duels to watch
GEORGIA – For the Senate, the spotlight is on the all-African-American challenge between the Democrat Raphael Warnock, pastor of the Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta (where he inherited the pulpit of Marther Luther King) and the Trumpian Republican Herschel Walker, former anti-football player abortionist accused by two women of having pushed them to interrupt their pregnancies by paying salary checks. Another crucial battle is that for the role of governor, for which the Democrat Stacey Abrams challenges Brain Kemp again. PENNSYLVANIA – The seat in the Senate is contested by the candidate supported by Donald Trump, the medical TV star Mehmet Oz (“Dr Oz”), and the Democratic Deputy Governor John Fetterman, the “good giant” who suffered a stroke in recent months. For the title of governor, the challenge is between the right-wing state senator Doug Mastriano, an iron Trumpian, and the democratic attorney general Josh Shapiro, who runs pledging to defend democracy and voting rights.
NEVADA – The close match in the Senate is between Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, the first Latina elected to the Senate in American history, and Trump-backed Republican and supporter of the stolen 2020 election Adam Laxalt. The vote of the Hispanics was decisive.
ARIZONA – The main duel is for the role of governor between the Democrat Katie Hobbs and the Republican Kari Lake, a former star of the small screen by some defined as a ‘Trump woman’. Republican Blake Masters clashes for a seat in the Senate with Mark Kelly, former NASA astronaut husband of Congressman Gabby Giffords.
OHIO – The battle at the last vote for the Senate is between Democratic Congressman Tim Ryan and Republican financier JD Vance, who hit the headlines for his book that later became a film on Netflix ‘Hillbilly Elegy’. Vance has long been identified as a “never Trumper” – never with Trump – but recently retraced his steps and embraced his theories.
WISCONSIN – Republican Ron Johnson, who voted against certifying Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory, and dem Mandela Barnes, defined by far-left conservatives, are contending for the Senate seat.
NEW YORK – In the blue Empire State stronghold, outgoing governor Kathy Hochul is in trouble against Lee Zeldin, Trump’s Republican rival.