Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – President Vladimir Putin is preparing to return to the seat of number one person in Russia in line with the elections which will take place March 15-17 2024. This occurs when the war that is still raging between Russia and Ukraine enters its third year.
Putin himself has served as president of Russia for more than 20 years.
So what impact will his leadership have on the war and Moscow’s relations with other countries? The following is the explanation, as quoted from Associated PressThursday (14/3/2024).
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The Effect of War on Russian Elections
Putin, now 71, has focused his campaign on promises to fulfill his goals in Ukraine, and he has portrayed the conflict as a battle against the West for the survival of Russia and its 146 million people.
In his State of the Union address last month, Putin accused the United States (US) and its NATO allies of “needing a dependent, diminishing and dying space in place of Russia so they can do whatever they want.”
Putin has repeatedly argued that he sent troops in February 2022 to protect Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine and prevent Kyiv from posing a major security threat to Moscow by joining NATO.
Meanwhile Ukraine and its allies have described Russia’s invasion – the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II – as an unprovoked act of aggression by a major nuclear power.
Putin also said Russian forces were superior after Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive last year, arguing that Ukraine and Western countries would “sooner or later” have to accept a solution on Moscow’s terms. Putin praised his troops fighting in Ukraine and promised to make them Russia’s new elite.
Ordinary Russians know little about the many setbacks their military experienced in the war, as many casualties were invisible and state media only reported on Moscow’s successes.
Economic Influence in Elections
The economy’s resilience in the face of tough sanctions from the West is a big factor behind Putin’s hold on Russia, which is a major player in the global energy sector.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the economy is expected to grow 2.6% this year, compared with a forecast 0.9% expansion in Europe. Inflation is expected to be over 7% but unemployment remains low.
Meanwhile the military industry has become the main engine of growth, with defense factories producing missiles, tanks and ammunition. Massive payments to hundreds of thousands of men who signed contracts with the military also helped increase consumer demand and contributed to economic growth.
In his campaign, Putin promised to provide cheap mortgages subsidized by the government to help young families, especially those with children, thereby increasing his popularity and energizing the booming construction sector.
He also promised to pour more government funding into health services, education, science, culture and sports, while continuing efforts to eradicate poverty.
The Future of Russian Policy Under Putin’s Leadership
Putin will likely use his predictable victory as evidence of the extent of public support for the war.
Many observers expected him to tighten his policies and escalate the war. Some say the Kremlin could launch another round of reservist mobilization to increase the size of its military forces and try to expand its reach in a major new offensive.
The Kremlin is poised to ramp up its bellicose rhetoric, casting the country as a beleaguered bulwark in the face of Western aggression. Repression of opposition activists and critics of the war is likely to be widespread, with authorities abandoning all forms of decency in their ruthless efforts to eradicate any signs of dissent.
Meanwhile Moscow’s foreign policy is likely to become more aggressive, and Russian authorities may increasingly seek to deepen divisions in the West with disinformation and propaganda, as well as appeal to conservatives in the West by promoting the image of Russia as a bastion of traditional values.
In Moscow’s relations with China, India and the South, a Putin victory in the elections would help strengthen existing alliances by reinforcing the message of his firm control over Russian politics.
[Gambas:Video CNBC]
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