by Andrea Vivalda
In recent hours, a plethora of commentators, analysts, political scientists and illustrious professors has hastened to conclude in overflowing live TV broadcasts and kilometric printed editorials that Putin would emerge greatly weakened following the events relating to the attempted coup in Russia. With the exception of the opposite opinion of the few (perhaps too few, given that it would be their matter) military generals interviewed, the dominant thought agreed en bloc on the idea of a “weakened and humiliated” Putin.
However, analyzing the media messages launched in the 24 hours of foiled coupnot those spoken or written, but those derivable directly from the evidence of the evolution of the facts, the situation appears very different. I see at least five clear media messages directed both inside and outside Russia.
Message #1: “No one can think of subverting power in Russia, because – even if it were the most powerful Prigozhin with 25,000 men in tow – would be blocked in a few hours”. It is a message that clearly emerges from how events have evolved, from the morning Prigozhin threatening power on video to the afternoon one sadly withdrawing, and it is further strengthened by the fact that no weapons and regular troops were used to stop him, but that was enough a political intermediary evidently based on an internal balance of power shifted to the advantage of the president, otherwise the conclusion would have been very different.
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Message #2: Kadyrov e the Chechen troops they are solidly aligned with the Russian president and ready to support him at any time and against any enemy, internal or external. An alignment which, moving on to the political level, extends to the historical allies of the Federation: from Turkey to Iran, passing through Belarus itself the protagonist of the mediation, the explicit endorsements to Putin, as if to reiterate that there is no enemy for whom support for Russia would ever be cut off.
Message #3: the decree on private Russian militias, even the Wagner and even the one set up by Gazprom, that is the very decree that some suspect may have triggered Prigozhin’s attempt to circumvent it, will go through without ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ on July 1, effectively equipping the supreme head of the Russian armed forces (that is, Putin himself) of the direct control over highly trained militias.
Message #4: the battlefield. Although Wagner’s endless column of vehicles left the Ukraine to travel along the M4 towards Moscow, de facto stripping the positions, the Ukrainian counter-offensive did not benefit in the slightest. To Russian citizens and to the world, the message is conveyed that the Russian regular army it has no problem to maintain their positions, even without Wagner.
Message #5: the non-message. The total silence of the Euro-Atlantic area. On the attempted coup in Russia, no Western voice has received the slightest even whispered opinion that it could even only covertly favor one of the parties in conflict. When it comes to commenting on Putin’s actions in Ukraine, Euro-Atlantic scathing utterances abound. When it comes to even guessing the overthrow of Putin in Russia silence is total, a silence that reads: “the West does not want Putin’s subversion under any circumstances”. Isolated from the others, he expressed himself alone Zelenskystating that Putin would have fled from Moscow in fear, only to be denied ten minutes later by Lukashenko’s note on the successful resolution of the issue.
The facts that have occurred are foggy and at times paradoxical, it is almost impossible to understand exactly its genesis and evolution, but whatever they are, it is evident that the story has allowed the launching of five strong and unequivocal media messages in the direction of the attestation of Putin’s power, certainly not the opposite.
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