The Russian military’s use of cruise missiles to carpet-bomb Ukrainian civilian targets is unsustainable, and its precision munitions will be exhausted by early 2023, and such attacks will not reverse the situation of its rout. The picture shows the scene of a large shopping and entertainment complex in the Black Sea city of Odesa, Ukraine, which was destroyed after being hit by multiple Russian ballistic missiles on the night of May 9, 2022. Missiles can be seen in the center of the picture Debris after the explosion. (Credit: OLEKSANDR GIMANOV/AFP via Getty Images)
[Watch China, October 16, 2022](see Chinese reporter Li Ao compiled/comprehensive report) U.S. and Western officials and analysts have disclosed that the invading Russian army is trying to launch a scorched-earth campaign against Ukrainian civilian targets. Resist the Ukrainian counteroffensive to retake its occupied eastern territories. In this case, Moscow has run out of cruise missiles.
The assessments are a bad omen for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s continued ability to sustain the unprecedented and violent bombing of Ukraine by Russian troops this week.
Ukrainian energy officials noted that the Russian bombing was the largest since the start of a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine, with missile strikes targeting energy infrastructure and other civilian targets across Ukraine in an apparent attempt to cripple “the entire supply chain” of electricity. supply.
Putin and allies’ plan to destroy Ukraine
“The coming winter will be challenging,” Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmikhal said on Wednesday.
“Therefore, we once again call on everyone to prepare for the winter. We hope that every household has some necessary basic items: warm clothes, candles, flashlights, batteries. Be prepared in case a large-scale missile attack causes the loss of electricity or heating, which One point is crucial.”
The war to invade Ukraine was bad for the Kremlin, and it was widely believed that the Russian military could overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses with a force that looked bigger and better equipped on paper. However, the Russian army is now facing the prospect of a rout across the board under the powerful counter-offensive of the Ukrainian forces that have continued to achieve major victories.
Russian hardliners see the callous scorched-earth strategy of destroying Ukraine’s critical civilian infrastructure as its clear path to victory in the war.
“The approach of special military operations (Russia’s official term for the war on the invasion of Ukraine) has changed,” Russian politician Sergei Aksenov told Russian state media this week.
He is the head of the Crimea region that Putin supported. The peninsula was annexed and occupied by Moscow in 2014 during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“I’ve been saying since the first day of the operation that if this kind of action to destroy the enemy’s infrastructure is taken every day, we will have everything by May and (Ukraine) will be defeated.” Aksenov claim. “I hope the pace of action will not slow down now.”
Ukraine’s energy minister Herman Kharushenko has confirmed that Russian forces have “slammed” Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for the first time since “the war began.”
Although Ukrainian officials acknowledged that Russian missile strikes could affect their future capabilities, officials said power had been restored to “nearly 4,000 settlements and millions of consumers,” according to the Ukrainian prime minister.
“Were it not for today’s attack, we would have restored the energy supply, water supply and communications that the terrorists destroyed yesterday,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday. “In some cities and regions, work is still going on. In some cities and regions, energy workers are imposing temporary restrictions on energy supply based on timetables—only necessary to maintain the stability of the energy system.”
The Moscow plan will fail: the Russian army is running out of missiles, and it will be difficult to reproduce after it will run out in early 2023
The strategy favored by Aksenov and other Moscow hardliners may be out of the question, as the stockpile of Russian cruise missiles has been nearly depleted over the past few months.
“We know that they (the Russians) have run out of cruise missiles, which, by the way, are the only precision, long-range weapons they still have,” a senior European military official said.
“Soon, by early 2023, they will run out of it (cruise missiles) because this is something that the Russian defense industry can no longer produce.”
“There are signs that he (Putin) is in short supply of precision-guided munitions,” another senior European official said this week. “I think the brutal and violent display of force by the (Russian military) is quite expensive, not only in monetary value, but also in the impact on Russia’s stockpiles of long-range precision-guided munitions.”
The U.S. Biden administration and global allies have worked to cut off Moscow’s military capabilities by imposing economic sanctions that have taken away Russia’s access to materials needed to make critical weapons.
As the newly released White House National Security Strategy states: “We are restricting Russia’s strategic economic sectors, including defense and aerospace.” “We will continue to counter Russian attempts to weaken and destabilize sovereign states and undermine multilateral institutions.”
“We work with allies and partners in Europe and around the world to impose sanctions and export controls that will undermine Russia’s ability to wage future wars of aggression.”
“Ukrainian and Western intelligence agencies have previously reported that Russia has spent a significant portion of its high-precision missiles,” the Washington-based think tank, the American Institute for War Studies, assessed. “Putin probably knows … that he can’t withstand this intensity for long. (missile bombardment) attack.”
In addition to precision-guided cruise missiles, the Russian military has more common artillery shells and other ammunition according to Western estimates, however, Ukrainian forces have made their own efforts. By continuously striking the logistical supply lines and central nodes of the Russian military, Ukraine effectively eliminated these supplies from the Russian commanders.
“Putin doesn’t have many options,” said former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Bill Taylor.
“He doesn’t have a lot of weapons, literally and figuratively.” “He’s in a bind.” “It’s going to be very difficult for him to continue destroying (Ukrainian) infrastructure because he’s out of these weapons.”
The Russian bombing has “no effect” on its rout of the war except “wasting” fewer and fewer cruise missiles
According to Western military officials such as the United States, recent attacks by Russian forces on Ukrainian cities may have merely provided a psychological boost to Moscow’s war hawks, but, the American Institute for War Research noted, they “wasted some of Russia’s dwindling precision. weapons to strike civilian targets, not military important targets.”
“These attacks will have no strategic or operational impact, because a severe winter or more Russian bombing will not change the resolve of the Ukrainian population,” said a senior European military official. “And it has no impact on the front, what is happening on the front. things (no impact).”
Putin probably had good reasons for choosing not to carry out such missile bombing attacks in the early days of the invasion of Ukraine.
The fact that he initially refused to strike these Ukrainian civilian targets reinforces the impression that their destruction is worthless to Russia’s efforts to invade the war.
Thus, Western observers assess that Putin’s decision to change course this week could be better explained by political motives, or perhaps because Russian forces were unable to strike infrastructure targets that could have a more immediate impact on the battlefield, such as transportation facilities.
“Is it because they (Russian forces) deliberately choose other targets, more vulnerable targets, or are they incapable of hitting targets with precision?” the senior European military officer asked.
“I, for my part, say they don’t have the precision[capacity to strike]. They don’t have the intelligence they need.”
“So it’s very symbolic, (the Russian bombing of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure) has no impact on the battle itself, on the front lines.”
Source: Watch China
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