China is the main lifeline for Russia to absorb the severe impact of sanctions against Russia in the context of broad sanctions imposed on Russia by Washington and its allies, especially if the sanctions affect the oil and gas sector, the Russian economy will be severely hit, but Is Beijing really supporting Moscow in the war against Ukraine?
China has officially opted for neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine crisis, even though it is strategically in the same trenches as Moscow against the US-led Western camp.
Instead of joining the ranks of the numerous countries condemning Russia’s military attack on Ukraine and sanctions on Moscow, Beijing blamed the United States for sparking and escalating the crisis.
On February 24, the day Russia launched its military offensive, China’s foreign ministry accused Washington of “provoking tensions in Ukraine and causing the threat of war” and refused to use the word “invasion” to describe the war in Ukraine.
However, China’s position does not go so far as to support Russia, as it is bound by the principle of “respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity” and Ukraine is a sovereign state; this is the same position that Beijing took when Russia annexed Crimea.
In addition, Chinese support for Russia would draw China into greater conflict with the West over issues not directly related.
For China, the Russian-Ukrainian crisis situation is deeply intertwined between strategy and principle, without forgetting a third factor related to economic and commercial interests that is intertwined with one side or the other.
Considered neutrality is therefore an option for China to bet on, as evident in the fact that China has not voted to condemn Russia’s attack on Ukraine, neither at the UN Security Council nor at the UN General Assembly.
China fears that Washington will turn the Russia-Ukraine crisis into an opportunity to target both China and Moscow, allowing it to eliminate two threats to its world leadership in one fell swoop.
In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said last Wednesday that the U.S. criticized China’s stance on the Ukraine issue as “seeking space for a conspiracy to suppress China and Russia at the same time,” Xinhua reported.
Earlier, a Chinese spokesman denied a New York Times report that China knew in advance about Russia’s military action against Ukraine and asked for the action to be postponed until after the February 4-20 Beijing Winter Olympics. .
Russia launched its military campaign against Ukraine just four days after the Beijing Olympics.
strategic ally
For Russia, China is its biggest economic partner. In 2021, the trade volume between the two countries is about 140 billion US dollars, and Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Beijing on February 4 and signed an oil and gas deal worth 117 billion US dollars.
China imports two main products from Russia, fuel (oil and gas) and weapons, and almost everything is exported to Russia, which is why the two economies are integrated, even though China’s economy is much larger than Russia’s.
Russia’s GDP is about $1.5 trillion, while China’s is $18 trillion.
After the tightening of sanctions in the West, especially as European and Western markets closed their doors to Russian energy exports, the huge Chinese economy represents the savior of the Russian economy, and Russian oil and gas continue to be exported to the Chinese market.
The same applies to Russia’s imports from Western countries, which Moscow can substitute with Chinese imports, which relieves the weight of sanctions and prevents the Russian economy from getting into trouble. In addition, according to an agreement signed by the two countries after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, the two sides traded in Russian rubles and yuan, which allows Russia to circumvent U.S. and European sanctions.
Russia does not expect China to fight alongside itself in Ukraine, but what it most desires is for China to support it financially and to withstand Western sanctions for as long as possible.
At the same time, China does not want Russia’s economy to collapse, as it will prompt Washington to focus on weakening the strong emerging Chinese economy; China’s GDP measured by the purchasing power parity system currently exceeds 24.2 trillion US dollars, compared with 20.8 in the United States trillions of dollars.
Mediation in China
“Respect for national unity and sovereignty” is not only a Chinese slogan, but a principle directly related to China’s refusal to split Taiwan’s “One China” policy, so it cannot be adopted to allow Crimea or the Donetsk and Luhansk regions A conflicting position from the separation of Ukraine.
Strategic interests with Russia have not prevented China from supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty over its territory, however Putin’s recent visit to Beijing, where the latter expressed understanding and support for Russia’s stance on security issues in the surrounding area, was opposed by both sides against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). ) in Eastern Europe violated the above principles.
But Beijing doesn’t want to go too far in supporting Moscow or get involved in Putin’s war ventures, especially since it’s Ukraine’s primary partner, the U.S. market absorbs most of its exports, and the EU is its main trading partner, Any sanctions imposed by Russia will undoubtedly undermine the economic boom it has achieved for decades, especially as its economy begins to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Ukrainian war is strategically bad for China, as the war will hinder its economic expansion around the world, the sanctions on Russia will disrupt China’s trade with the world, and the global supply chain crisis will come back again.
As energy prices rise, this will not only increase the value of China’s imports but also shrink its exports; the high cost of the product will cause its economic growth to decline, although it will benefit more from acquisitions in the Russian market.
This volatile economic environment is inconsistent with Beijing’s policies of commercial expansion in global markets, prompting it to rush to mediate between Moscow and Kyiv, and as the country’s premier partner and Russia’s only savior in the face of sanctions, it has important pressure chips.
But China may not have enough will to pressure Russia, and Russia has not shown any flexibility to take a step back from war options.