The political debate in recent weeks has been particularly heated, with inevitable repercussions on the opinions of Italians who must be viewed with great caution, taking into account the need for them to consolidate, especially after news like the election of Elly Schlein at the head of the Democratic Party. The most significant change compared to the month of February concerns the voting guidelines that show a growth in the Democratic Party (+2%) and a drop of a few decimal places in the majority parties and in the 5 Star Movement. Overall, the centre-right, while remaining firmly in the lead with 46.5% in voter preferences, fell back by 1.7%, while the centre-left rose, going from 22.5% to 24.5%.If the hypothesis were to materialize again, indeed at the moment rather difficult, of «wide field» (centre-left plus M5S and Third pole) the situation today would be highly balanced, with the coalitions separated by just one point (47.5% to 46.5% for the wide field). It should be emphasized that abstention fell by 2.7%, returning to values similar to those recorded in the political elections of 25 September.
This means that the percentage drop in the parties with the majority does not in fact translate into an effective drop, given that in absolute values it would correspond to around 140,000 voters compared to an increase in centre-left parties of around 850,000 voters (almost all conquered by the Pd). It follows that the increase in participation is the main cause of the growth of Democrats, in fact, Schlein’s first moves (choice of the themes of the dem agenda, positioning on the left, first public appearances as party leader) seem to have brought a part of abstentionists back to the vote, attracted by the innovations proposed by the new secretary. Furthermore, the Pd seems to benefit from a flow of votes from the 5 Stars (which it has overtaken to second place in the ranking), but it is too early to tell if a real competition will open between the two main opposition forces positioned in the progressive area.
On the other hand, Elly Schlein shows a two-point drop in the approval rating compared to the data published on these pages last week: this is a drop attributable to the increase in her notoriety given that initially she was known more by the dem, the centre-left voters and those who mostly follow political news; by increasing the audience of those who know her, the share of those who are further away from her political area than her, therefore sympathize less with her, increases. Despite the drop, Schlein with an index of 34 remains at the top of the ranking, ahead of Giuseppe Conte (index 31, up by one point), Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi, respectively stable at 28 and 26, then Maurizio Lupi and Carlo Calenda at 20, while Nicola Fratoianni, Angelo Bonelli and Matteo Renzi, although each up by 1 point, are confirmed in the last three places in the ranking.
As for the opinions on the work of the government and the prime minister, the positive judgments are down by two points and stand respectively at 43% for the executive (same value as the negative judgments) and 44% for Giorgia Meloni (against 42 % that expresses itself negatively). The approval rating, calculated by comparing positive and negative opinions, stood at 50 and 51 respectively, the lowest level since the beginning of the mandate.
Therefore, the country appears increasingly divided and the events of recent weeks seem to have polarized opinions, just think of the tragedy of Cutro, to the controversies about relief and the famous karaoke at Salvini’s birthday party; but also to the revision of the basic income and to the study of the active inclusion measure (Mia), to the tax reform (which the trade unions clearly oppose), to less relaxed relations with the European Union on various issues, from environmental ones (stop to the sale of cars with internal combustion engines from 2035 and directive on green homes), to the Mes, to the extension of beach concessions. And in the background there is the continuing concern about the economic situation, exacerbated by the alarms for the banking sector after the cases of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. In short, the level of political opposition has risen, also testified by the tough exchange between Meloni and Schlein in question time in the Chamber in recent days. Regional elections will be held between April and June in Friuli-Venezia Giulia and Molise as well as local elections in 790 Italian municipalities, 18 of which are provincial capitals. It is easy to foresee that, although these are local elections, they will, as always, be considered as an ordeal, a trial by fire for the government, the parties and the leaders, or rather, the leaders.