No, the Ukrainian army is not on a counter-offensive, it is about something else.
The solid defenses of Bakhmut were clearly a trap for the Russian war machine. The Ukrainian counterattack, north and south of Bakhmut, confirms the previously stated assumption. Although the introduction of Ukrainian reserves was planned more than a month ago, bad weather conditions prevented the use of motorized forces.
Ukrainian forces, which, west of Bakhmut, had been awaiting orders to attack for five weeks, now launched a broad, two-pronged counterattack south and north of the city. Each arm of the counterattack consists of coordinated attacks from outside and inside the Bahmut Ridge. Whether these Ukrainian attacks will develop into a double comprehensive maneuver around the city, which is mostly under Russian control, is now difficult to predict.
Russian defense is closer to collapse than stabilization
The first counterattack by Ukrainian forces began on May 9 south of the Bakhmut Ridge. Forces of the 3rd Ukrainian Assault Brigade broke through Russian positions south of Ivanivska. From the west, in the direction of Klishchivka, a breakthrough was achieved at the contact point of the Russian 72nd Motorized Brigade and the private Wagner formation. Both Russian units fled, and the mercenaries were the first to be wiped out. On the very next day, the forces from the inner side of the Bahmut Ridge also launched an attack. From the direction of Ivanivska, they broke through the Russian positions to the south. Because of this, the Russian forces, which were entrenched in the forests southwest of Ivanivska, abandoned their positions to avoid encirclement. The same picture as before was repeated.
Russian abandoned trenches with lots of equipment and hundreds of unused anti-tank mines. Members of the Russian 4th Motorized Brigade began to retreat when they saw that their colleagues were also leaving their positions. Wagner’s mercenary forces and formations of the Russian Airborne Forces attempt to establish a defense west of Klishchivka. The hilly terrain west of the settlement provides favorable conditions for the organization of defense. However, on this part of the front, the Russian defense is closer to breaking down than stabilizing the lines.
What can the Russian command do?
The northern strike started from the Bahmut Ridge. The breakthrough of the front was made on May 11 towards Berhovka. Russian positions were taken there. From outside the direction of the attack, they are reporting heavy Ukrainian artillery fire in the area of Soledar. This indicates the likely direction of action of the second arm of the Ukrainian pincers towards Soledar. In the city itself, the defenders managed to push the Wagnerians out of the zone of the Industrial School. The newly formed “Spring Offensive” forces do not participate in these offensive operations. Therefore, it is acting with the forces that were gathered in that region at the beginning of the year. What will be Russia’s reaction? Bringing in Russian reserves would certainly slow down, if not stop, the Ukrainian advance.
However, in anticipation of the main Ukrainian attack, the defense on the other part of the front would be threatened. At the beginning of autumn 2022, the Russians learned a painful lesson. Another option is to withdraw forces to more favorable defensive positions, shorten the front line and conduct defensive operations under a single command.
Ukrainians are raising armor
The Russian command clearly does not function as a unified system. After a public spat between Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Ministry of Defense, army general Sergei Vladimirovich Surovikin, otherwise one of the deputies of the incompetent army general Valery Gerasimov, still formally commander-in-chief of Russian forces in Ukraine, was appointed as the “liaison”. If they do that, the Army of the Russian Federation could also get rid of the private armed formation Wagner and its commander, a very unpleasant and unpredictable partner.
From other parts of the battlefield, very scanty information is coming. Something similar to Bahmut is happening in Velika Novosilka in Zaporizhia. The United Forces of Ukraine conduct offensive operations, but of a limited tactical scope. In the north, Russian sources report that Ukrainian military columns are moving towards the border with Belgorod Oblast in the direction of Kupyansk all day long.. According to the same sources, tanks, self-propelled artillery systems, multiple rocket launchers, armored personnel carriers with infantry were observed in the columns. Russian bloggers report that modern Western tanks have been spotted in armored columns. If the sources are correct, the Ukrainians are moving their armored-mechanized forces to the northeastern part of the front.
Ukraine renews offensive towards Svatov
The movements towards Kupjansk were preceded by the activities of Ukrainian forces on a relatively peaceful part of the front. On May 7, the Ukrainians moved their positions from three sides to the town of Vilšana, which is located 15 kilometers northeast of Kupjansk. If the Russian sources are correct, it can be assumed that these movements also mean the renewal of Ukrainian offensive actions towards the southeast, in the direction of the city of Svatov. If they attack, it will certainly be from the movement. However, we should not forget that at the end of last year, before he was dismissed, Army General Surovikin arranged defense lines around the city. One is located in the west and the other in the east of the settlement.
Each defensive line contains an anti-tank trench, concrete tank barriers known as “dragon’s teeth” and standard infantry trenches.
In other parts of the front, smaller operations at the level of violent reconnaissance are carried out. According to Russian sources, special forces of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine and marines are massing forces and assets five kilometers upstream of the Nova Kahovka dam. In the area of Berislav, Kherson region, on the right bank of the Dnieper, a group of light landing craft was spotted. According to the same sources, the intention of the Ukrainian forces is to secure the bridgehead in the area of the Kahovka settlement on the left bank. This should be taken with a grain of salt.
At the first serious pressure, a runaway appeared
Calling the current Ukrainian offensive actions a major spring offensive does not correspond to the facts. The amount of forces engaged is at the tactical level. The newly formed brigades were not engaged at all. Time will tell if it will develop in the direction of the great spring liberation campaign. Nevertheless, some conclusions can be drawn for evaluating future actions.
The combat morale of the Russian reserve forces is really low. Already at the first serious pressure, a fugitive appeared. Admittedly, they were attacked by hardened veterans of the former Azov Regiment. The absence of a functional command of the Russian forces is considered a serious problem. The command clearly does not function as a unified system.
Current actions indicate that the Russian commanders have decided to keep the reservists on the front line of defense. They formed reserve formations from professional soldiers and Speznaz paratroopers, which were probably reinforced by an armored component.. They would be used for interventions on critical parts of the front. Earlier Ukrainian counterstrikes were mostly stopped by massive, intense and accurate barrage fire from Russian artillery.
What is needed for the success of the spring offensive?
The news is that Ukrainian forces have started to carry out offensive operations at night. It’s not just about special forces operations, it’s about regular troops. They are apparently equipped and trained by NATO member instructors for night operations.
A novelty in the way of using the forces that carry out offensive operations is the direct support of attack and reconnaissance drones. This means that commanders have an overview of the situation on the battlefield in real time. Footage of direct coordination and correction of tank fire using a surveillance drone is particularly impressive. Although limited, Ukrainian offensive and demonstrative actions are clearly carried out in a planned manner, along the entire dividing line. This puts enemy Russian forces at a disadvantage. In the event of a focused attack, the Ukrainians have at their disposal much more favorable communications for the maneuver of forces along the front. The command in Kiev wants to take advantage of the failure of the Russian winter offensive and the fatigue of the aggressor forces. For some time, Ukrainian forces will mainly carry out offensive operations with the aim of improving the tactical position, inflicting the greatest possible losses on the occupying forces and taking the overall initiative on the battlefield. For the success of the great strike, two more assumptions must be fulfilled. Ukrainian forces must necessarily strengthen their air defenses to protect their attack columns.
The breakthrough at Bahmut caused panic among the Russians
In addition, the possibility of conducting fire strikes at a greater depth than at the moment would significantly increase the chances of successfully cutting the “land bridge” between Crimea and the Russian Federation. The confirmation of equipping the Ukrainian Air Force with “Storm Shadow” cruise missiles, with a range of up to 300 kilometers, is one step towards fulfilling that requirement. The next step would be the introduction into the arsenal of the already approved GMLRS, planar bombs that are launched from the multi-barrel HIMARS rocket launcher. Their range is 120 kilometers.
With these two combat assets in hand, the United Forces of Ukraine would be able to cut off traffic across the Crimean Bridge, and keep under fire all the supply lines of the southern part of the battlefield, including the ports on the Sea. Azov, Mariupol and Berdjanka. For these reasons, the upcoming Ukrainian offensive activities should be viewed more as a liberation campaign, rather than a separate offensive.. The campaign has already started and will probably last until autumn. Normally, there is always the possibility of a complete collapse of the Russian invasion, which is unlikely this year. In any case, instead of a nine-month announcement that they were in complete control of the city, the recent breakthrough of the Russian lines at Bakhmut caused quite a panic in the Russian press space.
(WORLD)