[Epoch Times, July 3, 2021]On July 1, Xi Jinping delivered a speech at the commemoration of the centennial of the founding of the Communist Party of China, saying that “solving the Taiwan issue and realizing the complete reunification of the motherland” is the “unswerving historical mission” of the Chinese Communist Party; “We must adhere to the’One China’ principle and the ’92 Consensus'” and “resolutely smash any’Taiwan independence’ conspiracy”; no one should underestimate the CCP’s “strong determination, firm will, and strong ability”; otherwise, it will be in the flesh and blood. “The “Great Wall of Steel” that was built was “head-battered” and so on.
Since the Democratic Progressive Party member Tsai Ing-wen was elected President of the Republic of China in 2016, cross-strait relations have taken a sharp turn. The CCP has not only severed all official ties with Taiwan, but has also continued to increase its military pressure on Taiwan.
Last year, the CCP military aircraft entered the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone for about 380 sorties. The CCP military conducted dozens of military exercises from the Bohai Sea to the East China Sea to the South China Sea. The CCP’s coast guard ships and warships frequently moved in the Taiwan Strait. The extreme leftists in the CCP kept clamoring for “unification by force” of Taiwan. Even the British “The Economist” magazine said that “Taiwan is the most dangerous area on earth.”
However, for the following five reasons: (1) The “One China” mentioned by the CCP refers to the “People’s Republic of China”, not the “Republic of China”; (2) The so-called “92 Consensus” of the CCP has been verified by scholars. It doesn’t exist at all; (3) The CCP has forced Hong Kong’s “one country, two systems” into a “one-party dictatorship”, and mainstream public opinion in Taiwan rejects the CCP’s use of “one country, two systems” to reunify Taiwan; (4) There is no so-called “Taiwan independence” scheme in Taiwan at present, Tsai Ing-wen The government’s attitude towards cross-strait relations is the same as that of the previous Ma Ying-jeou administration, which is to “maintain the status quo; (5) The CCP has continuously increased its military threat to Taiwan and unilaterally changed the status quo across the Taiwan Strait; the CCP’s “one country, two systems” plan for peaceful reunification of Taiwan has gone bankrupt .
So, how does the CCP claim to “solve the Taiwan issue”? The outside world has no choice but to doubt: the CCP will “unify by force” Taiwan. After Xi Jinping’s “July 1” speech, the possibility of the CCP’s military rule over Taiwan has become a hot topic.
The former Indo-Pacific commander of the United States, Philip Davidson, warned that the Chinese Communist military might rule Taiwan in the next six years. Some people have also suggested that the CCP may rule Taiwan by force in the next three years; others say that Xi Jinping may rule Taiwan by force after he achieves “three re-election” at the 20th National Congress of the CCP next year.
The author believes that because Taiwan’s history, reality, and future are closely related to Hong Kong, Japan, the United States, and the entire free world, as well as the issues of mainland China, the CCP’s military rule over Taiwan is by no means a unilateral attempt by the CCP. How to do it is restricted by various factors.
The CCP is unpopular internationally
On June 30, the latest poll released by the Pew Research Center in the United States showed that after a survey of 17 advanced economies on four continents, it was found that on average nearly 70% of the people hold a negative view of the CCP, maintaining or reaching a record high. Among them, 88% in Japan is the highest, followed by 80% in Sweden, 78% in Australia, 77% in South Korea, and 76% in the United States.
More than 80% of the interviewees in 16 of the 17 advanced economies believe that the CCP does not respect basic human rights, and most people also believe that the CCP does not respect individual freedom.
When asked “Do you believe that the Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping will make the right decision on global affairs?”, an average of 77% of the people expressed disbelief.
On October 1, 2019, on the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China, a “grand grand” military parade was held in Tiananmen Square. However, no head of state or government of any country in the world attended.
On July 1, 2021, the centenary of the Communist Party of China, a large-scale celebration was held in Tiananmen Square in Beijing with 70,000 people. However, no foreign heads of state or government attended the Tiananmen Square. Not even the communist countries such as North Korea, Vietnam, and Cuba were present.
The CCP is unpopular in the United States
On April 12, US Rep. Perry said in an interview with the Voice of America: “Through this pandemic, most Americans have awakened, and most of us know that it (the CCP) is a brutal regime. It is a criminal organization. It is leading a country, oppressing its citizens, and wants to rule the world.”
On April 13, the 2021 Annual Threat Assessment Report issued by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence of the United States stated that the CCP is the greatest threat to the United States. Confronting the CCP has become the consensus of the Democratic and Republican parties of the United States.
On July 1, former U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo tweeted: “One hundred years of the CCP is a century of killing and genocide. No political party has killed more people than the CCP.”
Senator Tom Cotton wrote on Twitter: “Today, Beijing celebrates the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China. At the same time, the Chinese people and the rest of the world are’mourning’ their’contribution’ to society- Millions of people have died as a result of (CCP) brutality, slavery, genocide, religious persecution, live organ harvesting, and global pandemics.”
On June 29, Sam Paparo, the commander of the US Pacific Fleet, said at a meeting that he was deeply concerned about the threat of the CCP’s escalating efforts. “It doesn’t matter if it’s tomorrow, next year, or six years later, it doesn’t make any difference to me. At the Pacific Fleet and Indo-Pacific Command, we have a responsibility to prepare for the security threats facing the United States.” He said His troops, allies, and combat planning are full of confidence.
Since the inauguration of US President Biden on January 20, he has emphasized the “importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait” at the summits of the United States, Japan, the United States and South Korea, the Group of Seven, NATO, and the United States and Europe. In the joint statement issued after the US-India-Japan-Australia summit held on March 12, although the Taiwan Strait was not mentioned, it reflected the four countries’ commitment to responding to the CCP’s challenges. Taiwan is one of the key links in the US Indo-Pacific strategy. The four heads of state are committed to maintaining the security of the Indo-Pacific, which naturally includes maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
The G7 includes the seven most developed capitalist countries: the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Canada; Australia, India, South Korea, and South Africa were specially invited to participate in the G7 summit; NATO has 30 member states ; The European Union has 27 member states.
As the leader of the free world, the United States is in fact building an encirclement against the CCP across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic, and across the five continents of the United States, Europe, Asia, Australia, and Africa.
The CCP is unpopular in Japan
The oil transportation lines that are vital to the Japanese economy are: the Middle East-the Indian Ocean-the Strait of Malacca-the South China Sea-the Taiwan Strait-the East China Sea-Japan. Once the CCP takes Taiwan by force, Japan is worried that the CCP will cut off Japan’s “lifeline at sea.” Security across the Taiwan Strait is also related to the security of Japan’s mainland and the Asia-Pacific region.
By 2021, the CCP’s aggressive military threat in the Taiwan Strait will force Japan to undergo a major change in its attitude towards the CCP.
On June 9, the foreign ministers and defense ministers of Japan and Australia held “2+2” talks via video. The joint statement issued after the meeting confirmed the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait for the first time and reached agreement on urging the peaceful settlement of cross-strait issues.
The statement stated: “We strongly oppose coercive and destabilizing behaviors in the region, which undermine the rules-based international order. We reiterate our serious concerns about the situation in the East China Sea.” “We strongly oppose any changes to the status quo. Destructive or coercive unilateral actions that exacerbate tensions in the East China Sea. We will maintain close communication on the situation in the East China Sea. In this context, we are concerned about China’s Maritime Police Law and reiterate a country’s coast The actions of the guard must comply with international law.”
On May 27, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, European Commission President Von der Lein, and European Council President Michele held a video summit and issued a joint statement, which also mentioned “the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, and encouraged Peaceful settlement of cross-strait issues”.
On March 16, Japanese Defense Secretary Nobuo Kishi and US Defense Secretary Austin stated that Japan is geographically close to the Taiwan Strait. Once a military conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, Japan will be greatly affected. It is necessary to explore what kind of assistance the Japanese Self-Defense Force can provide once the US military goes to Taiwan to support. On March 29, Japan’s Jiji News Agency reported that the Ministry of Defense of Japan has begun to study how the Self-Defense Forces can support the US military in possible conflicts in the Taiwan Strait.
On June 4, 1.24 million doses of vaccines from the British AstraZeneca Pharmaceutical Factory, which Japan provided free aid to Taiwan, were transported by Japan Airlines flight JL809 to Taiwan’s Taoyuan Airport.
Adding the flight number to this date is exactly 8964. June 4, 1989 was the day when the Chinese Communist Party committed the massacre in Tiananmen Square in Beijing. What does Japan choose to send vaccines to Taiwan at this time?
On June 11, the Japanese Senate unanimously passed a resolution requiring all countries to agree to Taiwan’s participation in the World Health Assembly starting next year. After the resolution was passed, all members stood up to express their support for Taiwan. This is a rare scene in recent years.
The CCP is unpopular in South Korea
Not long ago, a South Korean netizen listed on theqoo forum the 10 countries that the world hates the CCP in 2021. Among them, South Korea ranked seventh. Many Korean netizens found it unbelievable, and they left messages: “How can it be only seventh?” “Should we be ranked first?” “How could we lose to Japan?”
In mid-June, a poll conducted by South Korea’s current affairs weekly “Current Affairs IN” and the polling agency “Korea Survey” showed that as many as 75.9% of South Koreans hold negative views of the CCP.
South Korea will hold a presidential election in March 2022. In South Korea’s by-elections for local heads and parliamentarians held in April this year, the opposition party “National Power” with anti-CCP stance won an overwhelming victory. The pro-CCP ruling party politicians led by President Moon Jae-in have lost the election.
In mid-May, after South Korean President Moon Jae-in visited the United States, he issued a “Pro-US Statement.” South Korea’s domestic dissatisfaction with its pro-CCP policy is the main reason. After the outbreak of the great plague last year, 1.45 million South Koreans initiated an impeachment joint and demanded that Moon Jae-in step down.
South Korea’s Gangwon Province and the Chinese Communist Party’s official media People’s Daily Online signed an agreement in 2019 to build the Chinese Cultural City in Chuncheon and Hongcheon. It is estimated to cover an area of 1.2 million square meters and is currently the largest Chinese town in Korea-Incheon Chinatown. More than 10 times. As of April 28, 670,000 Koreans had signed against the project. Kolon International, the construction company responsible for the “Korean-China Cultural City” project, said through the Gangwon-do government on the 27th that it will conduct a comprehensive review of the project. Some analysts believe that this is equivalent to canceling the project.
On July 25th, the United States and Australia will hold the “Guard Sabre 2021” exercise in Queensland, Australia. Britain, Canada, New Zealand, and Japan will participate in the exercise. France, India, and Indonesia will visit the exercise as observers. This year, the South Korean army will participate in the exercise for the first time. A relevant person in the South Korean government said: “This participation in the exercise will become an opportunity for the South Korean-US alliance to be stronger than in the past.”
The CCP is unpopular in Taiwan
In 2020, Taiwan has undergone four democratic votes: the presidential election, the legislative council election, the removal of the mayor of Kaohsiung, and the election of the new mayor of Kaohsiung. Most Taiwanese voted for the Democratic Progressive Party who opposes the CCP. Among them, Tsai Ing-wen, the most hated by the CCP, won 8.17 million votes in the presidential election last year, breaking many historical records.
After Xi Jinping’s speech on July 1, Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council issued a statement stating that the CCP’s “one-party authoritarian regime suppresses people’s democracy and violates human rights and freedom. The road of “advance and retreat”; external attempts to interfere with the international order, and even show its ambition to become regional and global hegemony; its historical decision-making errors and persistent harmful actions have caused serious threats to regional security and the global democratic and free system “.
“The 23 million people in Taiwan have long rejected the CCP’s one-sided’One China Principle’ and the ’92 Consensus'”, because “democracy, freedom, and the rule of human rights and the rule of law are the core values that Taiwanese society adheres to, and there is a big institutional difference from the dictatorship on the other side of the strait.”
The statement said that Taiwan recommends that the CCP stop intimidation and engage in equal dialogue with Taiwan because Taiwan’s determination to firmly defend its sovereignty and Taiwan’s democracy and freedom and to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait remains unchanged.
On July 1, the Vice President of the Republic of China Lai Qingde stated on Twitter that “Taiwan’s future is determined by the people of Taiwan. This is the practice of democratic countries.”
People’s Party legislator Zhang Qilu said that if the CCP always treats Taiwan with a coercive policy, and Hong Kong’s bad example, it will only push the people of Taiwan farther and farther.
Luo Chengzong, director of the Institute of Finance and Law of Nantai University of Science and Technology, believes that instead of worrying about the CCP’s military reunification, Taiwan should strengthen its own strength. Israel’s aggressive face is strong and has survived the five Middle East wars. Taiwan should imitate Israel and become the Israel of Asia. Only by strengthening itself is the way to protect itself.
The CCP is sitting on the crater of the volcano on the mainland
This year is the 72 years since the CCP established its power, and it is also the 72 years when the CCP has imposed high pressure and deception on the Chinese people.
Over the past 72 years, the CCP has launched dozens of bloody and brutal political campaigns. In Mao Zedong’s era, more than 80 million Chinese were killed; in Deng Xiaoping’s era, the Tiananmen Square massacre was created during the June Fourth Movement; in Jiang Zemin’s era, large-scale live organ harvesting of Falun Gong practitioners was called “an unprecedented crime on this planet.”
Today in 2021, the contradictions accumulated by the CCP’s high pressure and deceived the Chinese people for 72 years are manifesting in various places, fields, classes, and forms. Hong Kongers, Xinjiang people, Tibetans, Inner Mongolians, human rights lawyers, victims of the Great Plague, P2P mine victims, “Tiananmen Mothers”, pro-democracy activists, petitioners, veterans, unemployed workers, land-lost farmers, victims of the CCP’s persecution Demolished residents, driven “low-end population”, university teachers and students who tell the truth, citizen journalists, private entrepreneurs, Falun Gong practitioners, etc., are all targets of the CCP’s high-pressure maintenance of stability.
The CCP’s funding for maintaining stability far exceeds military spending. In other words, the biggest enemy of the CCP is not the outside, but the inside. The CCP had to spend a lot of time, energy, manpower, material resources, and financial resources to extinguish the anger of the Chinese people’s resistance.
Since 2013, the 532 officials at or above the vice-provincial level, as well as other middle-level officials, their sons, grandsons, and back-office bosses who have been investigated and dealt with in the CCP’s internal fighting have hated Xi Jinping. Xi has always been in danger of being ousted.
The CCP wants to take Taiwan, and Fujian Province on the other side of the Taiwan Strait is an important base for the CCP to attack Taiwan. However, Deng Luyan, the eldest son of Deng Keming, former deputy commander of the Fuzhou Military Region, published an article in 2015, saying: “The corruption in the military is very serious. In terms of collecting money, it will only be darker, more violent, and more rampant than the corrupt officials of the local government. “
After witnessing the shady scene of receiving a large amount of money at a funeral, Deng Luyan wrote: “After I returned to Fuzhou from Shanghai, I seldom spoke for six months. On October 28, on the day of my father’s death, I went to the cemetery and said to my parents: ‘Our party is over, the army is over, the country is over, and the people are over.'”
Seven generals including Xu Caihou, Guo Boxiong, former Director of the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission, Zhang Yang, former Chief of Staff of the Central Military Commission’s Joint Staff Fang Fenghui, former Air Force Political Commissar Tian Xiusi, former Armed Police Commander Wang Jianping, and former President of the National Defense University Wang Xibin, A group of lieutenant generals, major generals, and the people behind these generals are all serious problems for Xi.
On the “Daqing” Day of the 100th Anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party, according to statistics from the Epoch Times website withdrawing from the Party, 380 million Chinese have withdrawn from the Communist Party, League and Team.
People are not as good as heaven
When the CCP subverted the Republic of China on the mainland in 1949, it was most likely to reunify Taiwan by force.
At that time, the CCP’s army was gaining momentum, and the CCP’s deceptive propaganda of “building a new China” was “getting popular.” Chiang Kai-shek, who evaded Taiwan, once launched a “plan to rescue mainland scholars,” and wanted to “rescue” the best talents from mainland China at that time to Taiwan. However, most of them chose to stay on the mainland. If the CCP had taken Taiwan in a concerted effort at that time, it would really be possible. However, when the Korean War broke out in 1950, the CCP was involved in the Korean War, and the plan to win Taiwan was immediately ruined.
After the CCP seized power in 1949, until the ten-year “Cultural Revolution”, the CCP’s policy has been turned to the left. The Cultural Revolution was an ultra-left era. In the words of Luo Yu, the son of the CCP general Luo Ruiqing, this is a decade of madness for the whole party, the whole army, and the whole people. At that time, the CCP challenged the United States on one side and the Soviet Union on the other side, clamoring “Taiwan must be liberated” every day. In March 1969, the CCP fought a battle with the Soviet Union on Zhenbao Island. However, no matter how crazy the CCP was, it failed to “liberate Taiwan.”
Today in 2021, the CCP is also turning to the extreme left. There are also some madmen in the CCP system. For example, the so-called military control scholar Li Yi claimed that “the mainland must be prepared to fight a nuclear war to reunify Taiwan”, even if it “destroys Taiwan.” “It’s nothing, just emigrate from the mainland.
But is “Tianshi” on the CCP’s side? Is “geographical advantage” on the CCP’s side? Is “Renhe” on the CCP’s side?
Concluding remarks
At the end of June, Cai Xia, the former professor of the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, published a long report entitled “China-US Relations in the Eyes of the Communist Party: An Insider’s View” at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. Cai Xia wrote: “The Chinese Communist Party has the ambition of a hungry dragon, but at heart it is just a paper tiger.” Washington should prepare for the possible “sudden collapse” of the party. I agree with Cai Xia’s view.
The problem that the CCP is most worried about right now is not the issue of military rule over Taiwan at all, but the issue of the CCP’s own cancer of corruption that has reached its late stage. This cancer cell has spread throughout the body. Chemotherapy, radiotherapy, surgery, and remedies are all useless.
On February 10, the Chinese Communist Party held a New Year’s party in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. While watching the performance, behind the round table where Xi Jinping was sitting, there were four young men in black sitting around. They did not watch the performance, but stared at the “guests” of the performance.
On July 1, when Xi Jinping delivered a speech on the Tiananmen Square, there were also a group of young men in black behind him.
On the above two occasions, Xi was surrounded by “party and state leaders” who had undergone strict security checks. However, Xi was still worried about his personal safety.
Therefore, I believe that in the short term, the CCP’s claim that it wants to rule Taiwan by force is more of a means to shift domestic contradictions. Whether Xi can win the internal struggle before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is Xi’s first consideration.
What will happen next? All I can say is that it will prosper in the sky, and perish if it goes against the sky.
Editor in charge: Gao Yi#
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