Home » Who will “run out of ammunition” in the war of attrition between Russia and Ukraine?NATO’s eastward expansion is a pretext for Putin’s war of conquest. Zelensky’s call to aid Ukraine is to stop Russia from harming the world | Donbass campaign | Putin | NATO’s eastward expansion | Zelensky | Russian-Ukrainian war | | Kyiv | War Fatigue | Shangri-La Dialogue | International Order | Food Crisis | Russian Passport | EU President | EU Candidate Country | Blockchain | International Criminal Court | War Crimes

Who will “run out of ammunition” in the war of attrition between Russia and Ukraine?NATO’s eastward expansion is a pretext for Putin’s war of conquest. Zelensky’s call to aid Ukraine is to stop Russia from harming the world | Donbass campaign | Putin | NATO’s eastward expansion | Zelensky | Russian-Ukrainian war | | Kyiv | War Fatigue | Shangri-La Dialogue | International Order | Food Crisis | Russian Passport | EU President | EU Candidate Country | Blockchain | International Criminal Court | War Crimes

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Who will “run out of ammunition” in the war of attrition between Russia and Ukraine?NATO’s eastward expansion is a pretext for Putin’s war of conquest. Zelensky’s call to aid Ukraine is to stop Russia from harming the world | Donbass campaign | Putin | NATO’s eastward expansion | Zelensky | Russian-Ukrainian war | | Kyiv | War Fatigue | Shangri-La Dialogue | International Order | Food Crisis | Russian Passport | EU President | EU Candidate Country | Blockchain | International Criminal Court | War Crimes

[Voice of Hope, June 11, 2022](Comprehensive report by our reporter Tang Ya)Russia has invaded Ukraine for more than 100 days. The Russian army adjusted its tactical pace and attacked with overwhelming firepower in eastern Ukraine. At present, the Ukrainian army admitted that the ammunition is about to bottom out. In addition, the speed of Western heavy military assistance to Ukraine is too slow and the number is insufficient. The situation in the Battle of Bath was seriously unbalanced. The daily casualties of the Ukrainian army doubled, which affected morale and the battle situation on the front line was not optimistic. However, Russia’s modern missiles may also be insufficient. At present, dozens of ancient missiles from the 1960s have been used to replace them, and Russia and Ukraine have fallen into a protracted war of attrition. Kyiv is worried about “war fatigue” in the West. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said to the “Shangri-La Dialogue” video that Ukraine was borrowing a mirror, and the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war will determine the future international order, especially Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s export of food, causing global damage The food crisis reminds the participating countries not to relax their efforts to aid Ukraine and obstruct Russia.

Putin compared to the 18th-century Russian Tsar Peter the Great, who believed that the attack on Ukraine was only to take back the original Russian land, which triggered strong protests in Estonia. Comments pointed out that this proves that Putin’s complaints such as dissatisfaction with the eastward expansion of NATO in the West are just a guise for a traditional war of conquest. Russia was revoked by several organizations around the world and officially announced its withdrawal from the United Nations World Tourism Organization.

After the Wunan city of Malibo was captured by the Russian army last month, the public service system collapsed, and diseases such as dysentery and cholera began to spread in the area, and thousands of people were feared to die as a result. And Russia has started issuing Russian passports in Kherson and Zaporozhye to justify the encroachment. The EU president visits Kyiv to discuss Ukraine’s candidacy for the EU. For the first time, a US team used “blockchain” technology to assist the International Criminal Court in investigating Russian war crimes.

The firepower of the Russian army exceeds that of the Ukrainian army by 20 times that of the WestHeavy military aid to UkraineToo slow and insufficient numbers, the situation on the Donbas battlefield is seriously unbalanced, the Ukrainian army faces the most severe test

Ukraine has resisted the Russian invasion for more than 100 days, and the military assistance of the Western Allies led by the United States and the United Kingdom is a key point. However, the Ukrainian army admitted that the ammunition is about to bottom out, and the battle situation on the front line is not optimistic.

The Guardian reported that Vadym Skibitsky, an official of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Intelligence Directorate, pointed out that “this is an artillery war, and we are now at a disadvantage.” He said that the daily artillery consumption of the Ukrainian army The amount is about 5,000 to 6,000 rounds. “We have almost run out of artillery ammunition, and now we use 155-caliber NATO standard shells.” “At present, everything depends on the supply and assistance of the West, which is about the same as the Russian artillery. 1 to 10 to 15. Our Western partners only provide about 10% of the amount.”

Oleksandr Danylyuk, a military and intelligence adviser to the Ukrainian government, also said that the Ukrainian army has almost exhausted the ammunition of its own Soviet-style weapon systems, and countries in Eastern Europe that use the same equipment have no extra to donate. It is too early for the aided heavy weapons to regain the upper hand and recover all the lost ground. “The Russians now have a different and more successful strategy and tactics than they did at the start of the war. They have more resources than we do, and they are not in a hurry. This is far from a time for optimism,” he said.

At present, the Eastern Ukrainian battlefield is a key area of ​​the entire war. The British “Independent” quoted the latest analysis report of Ukrainian and Western intelligence officials, revealing that the Russian artillery force is 20 times that of the Ukrainian army, and the ammunition is 40 times that of the Ukrainian army. . Ukrainian artillery can only hit 25 kilometers at most, while the distance that the Russian army can hit is 12 times that of the Ukrainian army (300 kilometers).

The analysis report said: “If our weapons are several times less than the enemy’s, the range is shorter than the enemy’s, and the ammunition is less than the enemy’s, it is impossible to win a traditional war. The army has exhausted the stock of ammunition for the Soviet-style Smerch and Uragan-type multiple rockets, which have a range of 60 to 80 kilometers, and are also the key to the Ukrainian army’s ability to deter the Russian army’s offensive in the first month of the war.”

“Today, the Ukrainian army’s firepower with the longest range is only about 25 kilometers, while the Russian army can attack the Ukrainian army with Iskander tactical ballistic missiles from 300 kilometers away and Smerch and Uragan multiple rockets from 60 to 80 kilometers away. The battlefield situation is seriously out of balance, not to mention that the enemy aircraft has complete air superiority.”

The report also warned that the Russian army is fully aware that the number of heavy weapons delivered to the Ukrainian army by the West is relatively small and the speed at which they are put into the battlefield is also slow.

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The report pointed out that individual anti-tank missiles such as Javelin and NLAW assisted by the United Kingdom and the United States achieved remarkable results in the early battlefields around big cities such as Kyiv and Kharkiv, and Switchblade drones also frequently hit Russia. Army, but this is not enough to deal with Russian artillery and long-range multiple rockets. Russian troops are now besieging Ukrainian troops in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

The “Washington Post” also reported that although the heavy weapons of new Western aid arrived one after another, they came too slowly and in insufficient numbers to reverse the Russian army’s offensive and gains in the Donbas region of Udon.

“The Washington Post” interviewed Ukrainian soldiers in the frontline town of Slovyansk to change their guards. 41-year-old Vitaliy Martsyv described that they could not stop the Russian artillery fire, “The Russian army’s attack is the first carpet gun. Boom, we will kill 35 of our 100-strong company first, and the enemy will destroy everything before coming.” Since more than a third of the troops were killed, they had no choice but to retreat.

The Ukrainian army now faces depleted ammunition and far more casualties than at the beginning of the war. An aide to Zelensky told the BBC that the Ukrainian army now has 200 killed every day, up from 100 last month. If the wounded are included, it means that the daily loss of troops on the battlefield reaches 1,000.

“The Independent” pointed out that the analysis report also showed that as more than 100 people were killed every day in the Donbas battlefield, “the morale of the Ukrainian army has been severely damaged, and the number of fleeing incidents is increasing every week”.

After a series of prisoner exchanges, the number of Russian troops currently captured by Ukraine has been reduced from 900 in April to 550. In contrast, there are more than 5,600 Ukrainian prisoners of war in the hands of Russia, mainly Mariupol. 2,500 defenders surrendered.

British Ministry of Defense: Modern Russian missiles are no longer enough to replace 1960s missiles

However, Skibitsky, an official of the Ukrainian General Intelligence Service, mentioned that the frequency of Russian rocket launches has slowed down in the past two months, and even used old Soviet rockets from the 1970s. Since the production of rockets is quite expensive, with a cost ranging from hundreds of thousands to millions of yuan, it is difficult for Russia to quickly produce rockets under the circumstance of global sanctions.

The British Ministry of Defense also stated on the 11th that as of the 10th, the Russian army was still unable to capture the southern part of North Donetsk, Ukraine. The “Rainbow Bureau” Kh-22 air-launched heavy anti-ship missiles of the 1960s were used to attack the ground, and dozens of them have been used so far.

The British Ministry of Defence said that a Kh-22 weighed 5.5 metric tons and was primarily designed to carry nuclear warheads to destroy aircraft carriers.

However, because Russia lacks more accurate modern missiles, and Ukraine still maintains an air defense system to prevent the Russian military from carrying out large-scale air strikes, Russia may continue to use this inefficient ancient weapon.

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its fourth month, officials in Kyiv fear “war fatigue” in the West, eroding its resolve to aid Ukraine in fending off Russian aggression.

The Associated Press reported that the United States and its allies have provided Ukraine with billions of dollars in weapons, and Europe has taken in millions of Ukrainian refugees displaced by the war; Putin) and Russia to impose sanctions.

But as the shock of the Feb. 24 Russian invasion recedes, analysts say the Kremlin could use the Russia-Ukraine conflict into a drawn-out, inability to intervene, as Western powers’ waning interest Press Ukraine to reach a settlement agreement.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, already annoyed by Western suggestions that he should accept some kind of compromise, said Ukraine would decide the terms of the peace itself.

“Fatigue (of war) is growing, people want a certain outcome (good for them) and we want a (another) outcome for us,” he said.

Volodymyr Fesenko, a political analyst at the Penta Center think-tank, said the war, which has cost Ukraine $5 billion a month, “has made Kyiv more dependent on the combined position of the West”.

Ukraine needs more advanced weapons to ensure that the war is won, while also relying on the West’s determination to continue sanctions to weaken Russia’s economy.

“It is clear that Russia is determined to wear out the patience of the West and is developing a strategy that assumes the West will burn out and gradually shift its rhetoric from positive to accommodating,” Fesenko said.

A Russian-Ukrainian peace plan proposed by Italy to the United Nations has been rejected. French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview that Putin’s entry violated a “historic mistake” but that Russia should not be humiliated so as to leave diplomatic leeway. Macron’s remarks sparked a backlash. Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger also proposed that Ukraine should consider surrendering territory in exchange for peace, which aroused strong rebuttals from Zelensky, pointing out that Kissinger’s views were like the appeasement policy of World War II, which allowed Nazi Germany to lose ground in 1938. Acquired parts of Czechoslovakia in the belief that it would contain Adolf Hitler’s aggression.

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The Russian army blew up 300,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat and corn Zelensky shouted: Ukraine is a global borrower, and aid to Ukraine is to prevent Russia from harming the world

According to foreign media reports, Russia’s “use of grain as a weapon” did not stop at blocking Ukrainian grain exports. Last weekend, it directly bombarded a large grain silo in Mykolaiv, one of the top in Ukraine, and destroyed nearly 300,000 tons of grains, mostly wheat and corn.

In this regard, the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres recently warned that what Russia has done may cause an unimaginable food shortage disaster, which may cause 49 million people to face famine or similar tragedies. Guterres emphasized that “for the people of the world, the combined impact of this war and other crises will lead to unprecedented waves of famine and poverty, which will eventually lead to irreversible social and economic disasters.”

Zelensky delivered a video speech at the annual Asian security conference “Shangri-La Dialogue” on June 11. He told 575 officials from more than 40 countries, “If there is no international law, the big fish will eat the small fish, and the small fish will eat shrimp. Then we may not exist.” He emphasized that the strength of all parties’ aid to Ukraine must not be weakened, because the outcome of the Ukraine battlefield will determine the future world order, “I am very grateful for your support, but this support is not only for Ukraine. , but also for your country.”

Zelensky specifically mentioned that due to the blockade of the Black Sea and the Sea of ​​Azov by the Russian army, all Ukrainian food crops could not be delivered to the global market, causing harm to the Ukrainian people and the whole world, resulting in a rapid and violent food crisis. Many countries in Africa were plunged into famine.

He warned that food shortages will inevitably lead to political unrest, which will lead to the fall of many governments or politicians, and the looming threat of skyrocketing prices of basic goods in some countries alone. “This is a direct result of Russian behavior. result.”

On the other hand, after Russia invaded Ukraine, the tension in the Taiwan Strait has attracted more international attention. When asked by the participants, how should Taiwan respond when the CCP seeks to take Taiwan by force if necessary? Zelensky responded that Ukraine today is a global mirror, and countries must take precautionary measures to prevent war from happening.

War, he said, only benefits certain political leaders, those who are ambitious and dissatisfied with the status quo. Therefore, Zelensky said, “we need to assist countries in need through diplomatic means” and preventive measures must be taken.

Zelensky also told the representatives of various countries that the Ukrainian army has no intention of invading Russian territory. “Remember that the war was started on our soil, and the Ukrainian people are dying … We have no intention of setting foot on Russian soil.”

Ukraine’s ambassador to Singapore, Kateryna Zelenko, reminded countries that Ukraine desperately needs foreign aid. “We understand that it will take time, but we are running out of time.”

In his latest speech, Putin praised the Russian tsar Peter the Great for taking the land belonging to Russia during the war against Sweden in the 18th century, but this land is today’s Estonia. Reuters reported that Estonia summoned the Russian ambassador on Tuesday, criticizing Putin’s remarks as “totally unacceptable”.

“We have summoned Ambassador Vladimir Lipayev to protest the recent remarks of Russian President Vladimir Putin, including his comments on the Estonian city of Narva. In Russia’s attempt to destroy the Ukrainian people and their statehood,” the Estonian foreign ministry statement said. This is totally unacceptable.”

After attending Peter the Great’s 350th birthday exhibition on the 9th, Putin mentioned in a conversation with young entrepreneurs, “One of your impressions of Peter the Great is that he got something in his battle with Sweden. He didn’t take everything, He just took it back. Our duty is to take it back and grow.”

Russia defeated Sweden in the Great Northern War from 1700 to 1721 in the 18th century, and has since dominated the Baltic Sea and became an important participant in European affairs. Part of it until it gained independence in 1918, was annexed by the Soviet Union in 1940, and then became independent again in 1991 until today.

Putin’s remarks compared to Russia’s Tsar Peter the Great obviously refer to the attack on Ukraine as just taking back Russia’s original land. Critics pointed out that this proves that his complaints in the past, such as his dissatisfaction with the eastward expansion of NATO in the West, are just a guise for the traditional war of conquest.

After months of Russia denying that its operations in Ukraine were motivated by imperial ambition, Putin appeared to accept the mission, comparing Russia’s current “special military operations” in Ukraine to Peter the Great’s war, The Guardian reported.

Putin, who has been in power for 23 years, has repeatedly sought to rationalize Russia’s aggression against Ukraine by presenting a view of history that argues that Ukraine has no true national identity and has never had a tradition of independent statehood. Russian forces have ravaged cities in Ukraine, killing thousands and forcing millions to flee their homes.

Critics pointed out that Putin’s remarks proved that his complaints about historical injustice, the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and other dissatisfaction with the West were only a guise for traditional wars of conquest.

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A Ukrainian government adviser said Putin’s comments showed that dealing with him, as French President Emmanuel Macron sought to find an “exit” for Putin from the conflict, was a miscalculation.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian presidency, said: “Putin’s recognition of the seizure of territory and comparing himself to Peter the Great proves that there is no conflict at all, only the bloody plunder of the state in the disguise of the Holocaust.”

Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt said Putin’s desire to take back Russian-claimed land “would lead to years of war”.

Russia officially announced its withdrawal from the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) on the 11th, an order signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, Agence France-Presse reported.

The UNWTO had suspended Russia’s membership on April 27, saying the aggression against Ukraine violated its “values”. Russia is currently ostracized internationally, has been revoked by several organizations around the world, and faces sanctions from Western countries.

The city of Malibo in Wunan was captured by the Russian army last month. According to foreign media reports, the mayor of Malibo pointed out that the local health system had collapsed and there were rotting corpses on the streets. “Dysentery and cholera have occurred here. Tens of thousands of civilian lives, and unfortunately, the contagion of the disease will take thousands of Maripo lives.” He called on the United Nations and the International Red Cross to start building humanitarian corridors to allow the remaining residents to leave the city.

A report released by the British Ministry of Defense on the 10th pointed out that it is difficult to maintain basic public services such as drinking water, Internet and telephone communication in the Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine. Kherson, for example, could face a severe shortage of medical supplies; Malibo is at risk of a cholera outbreak.

The report mentioned that the last major outbreak of cholera in Ukraine was in 1995, and there have been only small outbreaks since then. Malibo’s medical service may be on the verge of collapse, a problem that will be exacerbated by the cholera epidemic.

Russian officials assigned to Ukraine’s occupied territories said on Tuesday they had begun distributing the first batch of Russian passports to residents in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, the BBC reported.

Russia’s “military-civilian administration” news agency in Kherson announced that 25 people there had received Russian passports.

Vladimir Rogov, an official of the Zaporozhye Regional Military and Civil Administration, also told RIA Novosti that they had issued a certain number of passports in Melitopol. “This is an important and historic event for us, and our next step is to return to the Russian family.”

EU President Visits Ukraine to Discuss Eligibility for Membership

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who visited Ukraine on the 11th, tweeted on his arrival in the capital Kyiv: “President Zelensky and I will assess the need for reconstruction,” Agence France-Presse reported. joint work, and Ukraine’s progress on the road to Europe.”

Those discussions “will help us assess” whether Ukraine is ready to be considered an EU candidate for lengthy negotiations, including the reforms Ukraine needs, she told AFP and other accompanying journalists.

Ihor Zhovkva, the deputy chief of staff in Zelensky’s office, said in April that Ukraine was expected to gain candidate status at the June meeting of the European Council.

According to the calendar on the European Council’s website, the European Council will meet on June 23-24.

In addition, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has launched an investigation into Russian war crimes. According to an exclusive report by CNN, the Starling Lab co-founded by Stanford University and the USC Shoah Foundation (USC Shoah Foundation) , Tentative translation) Using blockchain technology to encrypt video, post and other related physical evidence, and submitted to the ICC prosecutor on the 10th, it is also the first case of using this technology to submit legal evidence.

The report pointed out that, different from traditional electronic and written documents, Starling Lab uses the blockchain technology commonly used in cryptocurrencies to encrypt, verify and save information such as messages, photos, and videos published on the Internet, and then submit it to the ICC prosecutor.

Jonathan Dotan, founder of Starling Labs, said that this is the first time anyone in the world has used blockchain encryption technology to submit evidence to a court. He told CNN: “We think this (blockchain) technology is in It is extremely appropriate and powerful in this situation.”

Dotan emphasized that he hopes to provide “more credibility” for evidence by virtue of the characteristics of blockchain technology that is difficult to tamper and crack.

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Responsible editor: Lin Li

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